Does the Wii compare to the PS2?

[Steve 3.2]

Another 'Will the Wii outsell the PS2?' thread?!? Not sure if I've posted to one before, so I'll take a stab at this one...

Possibly.

There are so many factors that will determine whether or not the Wii eventually sells more than 122 million consoles. And that number continues to climb since the PS2 continues to sell well for an 8 year old design.

In the Wii's favor are the current pace of sales, this new 'expanded' player base, and games/experiences that continue to sell months and years after they launch. Against it are the console's low end specs, Nintendo's build quality, and the possibility of the 'fad' finally wearing off.

Expanding upon those ideas for a second, the Wii continues to sell like gang busters. Nintendo still cannot make enough. This has been a blessing and a curse for the company. By continuing to be tough item to find (though a bit easier lately), it creates free publicity and creates a bit of artificial demand by being the 'it' item. On the other hand, this waiting can get old. And I'm sure some people have given up over the past two years. But given that the Wii experience is unlike any of the other consoles out there, I doubt many 360s or PS3s have been sold to Wii-less people.

And the Wii masses are diverse. And they like to show off their consoles to friends and family. Which in turn creates more demand. Much of the Wii's success can be traced to this viral marketing.

And the number one game for the system comes right in the box... Wii Sports. That game demonstrated the potential of the Wiimote and is probably the best ambassador game ever. And it's not just that game that's in the top sellers every month. Sure, Wii Play is a 'hit' (Nintendo makes a few extra bucks off an extra controller), but Wii Fit is huge and will be one of the hardest games to find this holiday. I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to be challenging well into 2009...

But on the other side of the coin, to make it to 130M+ systems the Wii will have to sell like hotcakes for another four years. At around 36M on it's two year anniversary, that's 18M a year. Sure Nintendo has upped shipments a number of times over the past 24 months, but the company probably can't/won't make too many more than 25M per year.

So that begs the question, how many years does the Wii have in it? The Wii was already old technology when it was announced. So how long will Nintendo continue to milk the outdated before upgrading the experience? And if they do so, will that fracture the installed base. If history is a good indicator, look no further than the Nintendo DS to see how the company is going to squeeze this for all it's worth. The main tech inside the DS (a pairing of an N64 and SNES) hasn't changed though the packaging has gone through two major revisions in the past four years. The DS technically needs to change to add features since adding attachments to a portable makes it less pocket friendly. But the Wii doesn't. When Nintendo wants to upgrade the Wii experience, it brings out a new add-on. Wii Balance Board. Wii Motion Plus. Wii Something Else.

One of the nice things about Nintendo products are that they're generally built well and last for a long, long time. I honestly cannot say the same of the PS1 or PS2. I'm sure millions of PS2 consoles sold these days are to replace broken ones. I'm not sure if millions of Wiis will need to be replaced a few years from now. (Wiimotes that fly through windows, yes. Wii consoles, no.)

And finally the 'fad' argument. Not exactly a fad, but the Nintendo Wii is quite popular these days. I believe this is why a lot of people call it a fad. But the Wii has outlasted Cabbage Patch dolls, Razor scooters, and the like. But will this popularity last? The public generally has a short attention span. It's amazing that it continues to be focused on the Wii this long.

In the end, if Nintendo or its partners (yeah, right) can continue to create new and interesting experiences that people want to share with others over the next couple of years, the Wii could become the best selling console ever. But it's got a long haul ahead and who knows what the future holds. If they don't, Nintendo will still have the best selling system ever in the Nintendo DS.