Hus look at this way - Wii is selling anywhere from 2-4 times faster than 360 each week, and it still took 9 months to pass 360. When most PS3s cost $400, I expect PS3 to sell consistantly at ~1.3 to 1.5 times faster than Xbox 360. But at launch, PS3 was 5-6 million behind 360. Given the USA Core price ($279), and sales in the UK, France, Ireland, Australia and Canada, I expect the 360 lead to extend to a peak of 7 million this December 31. After that PS3 will slowly but steadily cut into the 360 lead, selling worse in the USA and Canada for a while (Americans are price conscious, and there are some signs a recession will be coming soon), until it reaches $300/$400, but outselling 360 in Europe/Others and Japan throughout comparable time periods. Given that the lead will be 7 million through December 31, 2007, and that Wii outsold 360 2x faster than PS3 will outsell 360, PS3 will need at least 18 months - starting in 2008 (since it took Wii 9 months) to catch Xbox 360. However, since 360 will likely be at least partly mass-market price sometime in 2009 ($250/$200/$150 is my guess), the catch up may get delayed into early 2010.
Still, I expect it to happen because 360 can't come in second selling in 1.5 out of 3 markets when PS3 will sell in 2.5 out of 3 markets.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
