Based on what I see for the software: - Software sells best on 360, worst on PS3, Wii in the middle in terms of raw data. - Adjusted for USA userbase though (rounded to nearest .25 million), Wii software sells better. Look at what I call 5% level hits - games that appeal to 1/20 people who own the console, it is a good way to assess buying patterns regardless of userbase. For Wii, 5% of 2 million = 100,000 level hits - Wii has 3 in February. 5% of 5 million = 250,000 level hits - 360 has 1 in Febraury. PS3 - 5% of 1 million = 50,000 level hits, PS3 has 2 in February. With Wii having the most rapidly growing software and hardware, it seems developers will have no choice to support it in the future, as they make other games for 360 and PS3 (because 360 sells more raw software right now, but when PS3's userbase gets higher, software may sell better on PS3 then on 360). My theory is one 5% level game per month is necessary to keep hardware sales steady. To improve hardware you a 10% game (hit), 20% game (huge hit), 50%+ game (generation defining hit). The aforementioned categories are for when a system is still under 20 million units sold. No game ever really sells to 50% of the userbase (anymore). By 50 million the level drops to 30% at best for exceptional games. For 100 million the level drops to about 17% (1/6). In March PS3 will have Motorstorm, which will sell over 50,000 to keep hardware about the same. Wii will have 3-6 of the following sell over 100,000 to keep hardware about the same - Tiger Woods, SSX Blur, Sonic, Wario Ware, Zelda, Wii Play, TMNT, Godfather. I would guess Tiger Woods, Wii Play, Zelda and Wario Ware. 360 will have 1-2 of the following sell over 250,000 - Crackdown, Def Jam, MLB 2K7. The games with 10% potential this year are: Super Paper Mario Heavenly Sword Big Brain Academy Devil May Cry 4 (360) Assassin's Creed Lost Odyessey Project Gotham Racing 4 Bio Shock Blue Dragon Dragon Quest Swords Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles (Wii) Games with 20% potential this year: Metroid Prime 3 Mass Effect DDR Wii Metal Gear Solid 4 My Sims Forza 2 Guitar Hero 2 Madden Wii Health Wii Music Games with 50% potential this year Halo 3 GTA IV Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu