JMan on 06 August 2007
Every year, me and a friend of mine have tried to guess what the "hot toy" of the year would be. We've been doing this since the Furby was hot. When I saw the E3 stampede, imagined what the controller would be like I sent this message to my friend:
E3 is underway.
I think this year's toy will be the Nintendo Wii (they are saying "we", I am thinking "Wheeeee" and PS-3 Fans are thinking "wee-wee").
It has been thought that this is Nintendo's last chance to make it or break it. So Nintendo is doing things differently this time.
The Wii is going to take the gaming world by storm. The Wii controller -- it's going to be awesome. [snip...discussed the remote specs here] This whole box is loaded with possibilities, and the expected price is still only $199 (speculation). That's a bargain, and you can bet people will be going for it. Presales, to be released in 4th quarter 2006. PS3 is supposed to come out too in the same timeframe, but after looking at the two boxes, I'm definitely going for the Wii. PS3 has too many problems. It'll be overpriced (will be over $500), has already missed its first release date, and Sony is investing too much into the idea that people will pay extra to play blue-ray DVDs. It won't happen, they're dead this time. The kids will whine for a new console, and the parents will look at the PS3 and think "no way, too expensive" and buy the Wii.
The way the "wii-mote" is shaped (like a rod) and senses 3-d leads to sword-swinging, gun aiming, get-your-whole-body-into-it game playing. Sony tried to add some of the functionality into their PS3 remote. They only added the tilt feature. You can't spin around, hold the PS3 controller like a sword, or move around the room and have it detect where you are like the wii-mote does. I suspect the battery life is going to be a problem (haven't seen any indication of the expected lifetime). Nintendo is holding an information blackout, giving only enough to get people excited. They are going to be marketing this big time as 4th quarter approaches, creating a huge demand. And their target market is massively expanded. This is going to be big.
You've been told.
and in another e-mail to him the next day:
There is one potential problem. Because the information on the Wii has come out in little bits and pieces, there has been a lot of pre-market criticism of the box. Let me give you an example. The specs came out, and it was about twice as good as the gamecube, which wasn't all that great.
[snip...more examples, such as DVD & not Bluray, non-HDTV support, wireless controller, virtual console]
See, the order of these things coming out make it seem like this box is doomed from the start. But as soon as they added ability to detect where in the room the controller is, they suddenly changed the face of gaming. Because now it becomes a whole body experience. Imagine swinging the remote like a tennis racket, feeling it hit the ball. Or casting out a fishing line. Swinging a golf club or baseball bat, or using the remote as a sword with the nunchuck as the shield. It's sensitive enough to be able to detect if you are trying to put a spin on the tennis ball, or going straight. That's going to be fun. Up to 4 players at a time.
Imagine parents playing games with their kids "Oh yeah, I used to play pac-man 3d. Let me show you how it's done."
Ok, so there is a lot of POTENTIAL in this thing. It is still possible for Nintendo to totally screw it all up by not doing a massive marketing effort which will be needed to counter some of the initial skepticism. But from the posts I've been reading, people are genuinely excited about the controller now, and are starting to see the whole "playing is believing" thing.
and then on 9/14/07:
Preorders for the PS3 might not be a bad idea at this time either. The PS3 is going to be massively undershipped. Sony screwed up big time and are only shipping 400,000 units to the US by christmas.
If I had thought about the stock market, I would have invested. But instead I was thinking about stock on the shelves and trying to get me a preorder.
