Thought Exercise: Could Nintendo Fly Solo?

[Final-Fan]

misterd said:

Final-Fan said:

Could Nintendo Fly Solo?

The company seemed to be headed that way. Every console since the NES had seen fewer sales until the Wii, and every console since the SNES had seen less third-party support. If that happens to it again -- if it had a console that third parties wouldn't touch for love or money -- could it have a viable business model with a console sustained entirely by first-party games?

Picture it: The Gamerectangle. Selling for a mere $180 but unable to muster the sales of the Ybox or Playdock. No major third party game has ever been released for the system, although somethimes a tiny indie company will wander up and slap a title on the system.

Could Nintendo do it? I think that it absolutely could. It'd be the Apple of video games. Mario, Zelda, and the rest make Nintendo immortal.

However, I know it's just a hypothetical situation because any console that isn't dead or dying will have somebody who wants to make an ambitious third-party title for it. And if not, one of those indie projects will hit the jackpot.

I'll say it again. Two points is a line, 3 points is a pattern. N64 and GCN were a line. Wii appears to defy any attemp to read a pattern into them.

You have to remember the underlying reasons for the weak 3rd party support:

N64: Backlash from poor SNES negotiating tactics, and choice of expensive cartridge format while Sony provided more financially viable alternative.

GCN: Started out improved, but 3ps were firmly aligned with PS2 due to PS1's success, and MS was paying oodles of money for extra features and support. The 'Cube ended up losing 3P support not so much for their relations with 3Ps as for their general bungling of the GCN itself.

Wii: Held back info in Wii until it was too late for many developers to really get a good game ready for the launch. Also, but completely changing the paradigm both in terms of graphics and controls, the Wii was a giant question mark. So they hedged their bets and put time and resouces into the consoles that demanded them. Now, because the Wii is a huge success, the PS3 stumbled out of the gate, and the XBox has been stalled at 10 million sales most of the year, 3Ps have been reallocating their resources in the Wiis favor.

 

Regarding your edit of my OP:  Well, duh.  That is implied by the past tense, i.e. that is no longer the case. 

Regarding the "GCN bungling" comment:  in what way was the Gamecube bungled?  It was a wonderful piece of hardware, and I really dont think "PURPL 4 KIDZ LOL" actually hurt sales that much.   

Regarding the post in general:  I never said there was a pattern.  But if you want to get right down to it, there WERE 3 points on each attribute of successive Nintendo consoles I named.  The SNES, N64, and GCN all had successively fewer hardware sales than the preceding console.  The N64, GCN, and Wii all had successively less third-party support -- at least until it became obvious that the Wii was going to smash all kinds of sales records.