Can Mario Kart Wii become the nr 1 selling game in its first 12 months?

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theprof00 said:

c0rd said:

@theprof00: I guarantee you, Mario Kart Wii is not just selling to the old Nintendo audience. The Wii wheel is reeling new people in - when new people pick the Wii, what other games would they buy with the console? Besides the Wii Series, Mario Kart Wii seems like the perfect choice, a game practically anyone can enjoy.

absiolutely c0rd. however, i think maybe i phrased my post incorrectly so i'll reiterate.

the max on the gamecube was 7 million copies.

That means that there are maybe 6-8 million fans depending on how many rebuys and used game purchases there were.
There are only 20 million fans of nintendo from last gen.

This means that, at most, the loyalty factor is only going to affect 20 million, of which maybe only 10 million have bought a wii, it's quite hard to say. i had a cube and i sold my wii so... there ya go, it's really hard to say. To be on the safe side of the argument, we'll say that all 20 million cube owners have a wii. that means that 7 million mario kart games should be sold of which 8 million already are.

out of those gamecube owners 10 million had played mk64, and lost 3 million at the next iteration.

So as far as the overextended demographic, coupled with the lack of fanbase (comparitively), and the sales per week dropping by a good 8-10 percent week over week, the relatively expensive cost of the wheels and remotes, and several other great games on the market for the wii,  I hereby bet that mkwii will not reach the record.

although you make a point saying that the wheel sells to other people than fans, i agree, however your point says, "on top of the fans there is this group", when in reality it is "this group needs to make up for the lack of fans in the first place"

your assertion that mkwii is the perfect choice is just an opinion. IMO more people are looking at wiiFit, mario galaxy, things that make news, or are archetypal, mkwii just isn't archetypal, sure its a racing game and it's a mario game, but new gamers will be playing mario galaxy than a sidegame starring mario.

 

New gamers aren't picking up SMG instead of MKWii. If someone gets Wii for Wii Fit or Wii Sports, MKWii is the perfect game for them to upstream. The wheel and the fun assosiated in the game are the key elements to get the new audience into the game. The new audience is getting SMG after MKWii. This is the NSMB equivalent on Wii.