List your expectations:
1st week- 150,000
1st month (August)- 250,000
I expect this not to be as big a game as Mario Party 8 for several reasons:
1. Soccer is not a very popular sport in the US.
2. Not as casual centric as Mario Party 8 (even though it is accessible)
3. I don't think Nintendo is going to heavily advertise this game. When Warioware, Mario Party, Paper Mario and Wii Play came out, there were a lot of TV ads. Pokemon Battle Revolution didn't get much in TV ads compared to those, and I expect Mario Strikers to be closer to that. I still haven't seen a single TV ad for Mario Strikers.
I expect numbers similar to Pokemon Battle Revolution, but better because I expect more core gamer adoption of this than that game. Most of the buyers will be traditional Nintendo fans, some core gamers and some casuals.
It won't be a huge seller to either Core or casuals because it's not big enough for core gamers to buy it in huge numbers (Metroid Prime is coming soon) and it's not casual/party game enough for the casuals to buy in huge numbers.
Strong debut and then it fades away like Pokemon Battle but performs better overall because it's a better game.
Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!
