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I think the simplest way to predict the 360 price cut outcome is using the following questions:

1) how many people want a 360? if the console is not in demand, a price cut won't make much of a difference.

2) how many people think the 360 arcade model is worth spending $199 on? everyone i know who has an arcade model (about a dozen friends), have all ended up having to pay for wifi and HDD. This brings the price of the console up by at least another $100 minimum.

3) what games are being released to make the system worthy of purchase? Currently there is GeoW2 and Fable2. Is there anything for the kids? Is there anything for the casual?

Conclusion: There will be a spike for those who are wanting a 360, but after these people have made there purchase, the numbers will drop again. There isn't enough appeal for the price cut to have a huge long term effect. If anything and as sad as this may sound, the only thing the 360 arcade will be competing with is the ps2 consumers. Although it may not sound much, but if this is a strategy, it is a great strategy. Kill the console that brings in profits for Sony to make up some of the losses on the ps3. However, MS doesn't seem to be using this reasoning or logic, they are after the Wii and PS3 consumers and this will be far more difficult to achieve having less and less on offer as time passes in the console life cycles.