perhaps "declaring a winner" is the wrong way to put it; let me rephrase. do we have enough information to say that the wii is going to dominate the game console industry for the next 4 years? what i'm interested is this: what are the important PREDICTORs in this case? how many of the predictors have we observed that are strong signals that the wii is likely to outsell its competitors? for instance, innovative gameplay is a predictor for the early success of the wii. this is miyamoto's vision. now that all systems have been selling for over 4 months, what have we observed in this period that might influence sales more than any other factor? again, for instance, price turns out to be a much bigger factor than most experts predicted, thus contributing to PS3's early stumble. is there something that is not obvious, or something people do not consider as predictors, that is a strong predictor? to me, "strong game support" is a stronger predictor than "great graphics", at least in this gen. in this business, "good pricing" is a stronger predictor than "high def support". so my question is: Do we have enough knowledge to say with a good decree of confidence (defined in a way that makes sense) that the Wii is going to come out ahead by X'mas 2010?
the Wii is an epidemic.
