When do you expect Nintendo to release a new handheld?

[TheSource]

I think Japan will see some kind of new DS model introduced within a year. The west will get it for the following holiday since sales are stronger.

DS2 won't be out for a while though.

DS is closing in on 80m sellthrough and shipped in its fourth full year, about 45 months from the USA launch. Its not hard to imagine it doing 150m given that GBA took 7+ years to do 81m shipped.

Nintendo probably has a numer in mind. Once sales drop below x in Japan, or y worldwide, a new model or a new DS will be introduced.

I think the number is 1.5m/year in Japan, and 15m worldwide in a year.

But...DS will do ~2.5m+ in Japan, and probably more like 3.5m or 4m in Japan this year. Worldwide DS shipments for the year ending March 2009 should be 28m as Nintendo projects. So after that, you can probably expect ~20m shipped in the year ending March 2010, followed by something like 13m in the year ending March 2011. To me, that fiscal year is the logical time to introduce the new DS. I'd go November 2010 for Japan, March 2011 west. But DS may still ship ~20-25m after the successor comes out (10m year ending March 2012, 7m year ending March 2013, 4m year ending March 2014, 1m year ending March 2015.)