The OFFICIAL Feb 2007 NPD Thread

[TheSource]

I dont know...except for the USA it seems like there is only enough room for one smash hit (10 million in a territory) per generation. Japan is essentially a two-console country, but because there are three horses in that race it divides like 70%-25%-5% or like 65%-20%-15% (in the case of PS1-Saturn-N64). To me that means two consoles could succeed in Japan, but only one does because the 2nd and 3rd guy don't work against the top dog well enough. If there are 25 million unique console owners in Japan per generation, you need 40% to be a success I say..in other words - NES,SNES,PS1,PS2 were successes in Japan. Genesis, Sat, N64, DC, GC, Xbox, 360 are all niches. PS3 is heading there too it seems. Wii appears to be headed for success in Japan. In the USA, you have 60 million unique console owners I'd say. That is why NES, Genesis, SNES, PS1, N64, PS2, Xbox, GC all made it to the 10 million level here. Only the Saturn and Dreamcast did not. Get 17% of the US market and you'll be fine here. All 3 can do that this generation. Europe is between the two I think. But only the NES, SNES, PS1, PS2 have reached the 10 million threshold. However, the market is growing - so I think two out of three will make it this time. The old adage is the world market can support 2.5 consoles. I see it like this: USA - 360, Wii, PS3 all supported - 1 market each Europe - Wii and 360 sell 10 million (2 markets each). PS3 does not (.5 market) Japan - Wii gets 60% of the market, PS3 gets 35%. 360 is 5%.. Imagine the market breaks down like this for a moment NA as 3.5/8 total, Japan as 1.5/8 total, Eur 3/8 total of the market for instance Wii - supported in 3 markets - 1 console PS3 - almost enough support in Japan, enough in the USA, about 1/2 of needed support in Europe...supported in like 2 markets and change if they could be added it would amount to like 6/8 of a console. 360 - support is USA/Eur. Effectively none in Japan. 7/8 of a console. 6.5/8+5.5/8 + 8/8 = 2.5 consoles supported by the market