hmmm.... well. In the last 30 weeks, the PS3 has sold 5.6266 million units, for an average of 187553 units/week. At this rate, it will sell 9752756 units through the end of December. However, if we assume average sales of 450000 units/week for the last eight weeks of the year (and this is not unreasonable as the PS3 averaged 403000 units/week during this period in 2007) then the total becomes 11852332 units for 2008. By being a little more (but not unreasonably) optimistic than these predictions, we may assume that PS3 sales will be ~13,000,000 for all of 2008. This would put the PS3 at just under 22 million units sold in total.
Now, assuming this is where the PS3 stands at the end of 2008, we move on to 2009. Since this will be the PS3's third (and thus prime) year, and given the fair number of AAA games coming out in this year, I think sales of 15,000,000 consoles for 2009 is definitely inside the realm of possibility (though it IS fairly optimistic). This would leave the PS3 at around 37 million units sold by the end of 2009.
Given that even the optimistic prediction above puts the PS3 at only 37 million by the end of 2009, 40 million is almost definitely not going to happen. However, 35-38 million is a definite possibility, and the console is unlikely to end up under 33 million units sold by the end of 2009.
Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it
