I'm not as bullish as you guys are:
1) To phase out the 20 gig 360 while introducing the new model, there is going to be a week or two of extremely limited supply in the Americas.
2) The reintroduction of a middle sku at $349 (even with more gigs) is going to mean lower sales instead of sales momentum from the current sku phase out.
3) The shooter market is over saturated now I think as both Microsoft & Sony have both placed too much emphasis on it after the launch period (first year on the market).
But:
Sales in Japan and Others are going to remain relatively high in the second half, and I think Microsoft is going to use that as an excuse to avoid dropping price further, especially since Sony seems loathe to drop price given their diminishing profits and the declining PS2 market.
I think we'll see 21.5m Xbox 360s shipped through September 2008, and then 26m Xbox 360s shipped through December 2008, with about 24.8m in sellthrough.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
