PS3 in North America over the next few weeks

[elprincipe]

First, I want to brag about my 41,000 PS3 prediction for the prediction league (ioi's actual was 41,005, making me 99.99% accurate! :D).

But more to the point, I wondered what people expect with regard to PS3 sales over the rest of the summer, given that there are plenty of PS3s to be had at $499 at this point.  Will they stay at an elevated level or gradually/immediately decline?

Looking at the release calendar at ign.com, we have:

August 14 Lair

August 14 Madden 2008

August 21 GRAW 2

August 28 Warhawk

September 4 Heavenly Sword

So we have a few weeks until the one-two of Lair and Madden on the 14th.

Personally, I'd predict that we see a slow decline as those who want the PS3 at $500 snap them up, then less of them the next week, and less the week after.  Maybe something like 41,000-->35,000-->28,000-->23,000, then when Madden hits back to 40,000 or even 45,000 for a week or two.  I don't think any of the other games will have a huge impact.

Opinions?