As of July 15, 2007 Wii has reached 40% marketshare in current console market (Wii, PS3, 360) with sales of 9.3 million out of 23.22 million. While many had expected a PS1 like build up of momentum for the Xbox 360 - save Japan of course - the 360 has just under 44% marketshare worldwide right now, after entering 2007 with ~63% of all current gen console sales to date. This can be attributed to 2007 sales - in which Wii has ~56% of all current gen sales, while over the comparable time period Xbox 360 has ~ 22% of all current gen sales.
Nintendo has not had 40% marketshare in a console race since the waning days of the SNES as the world's dominant console - in 1994 to early 1996 (right before PS1 started to take off worldwide).
During its 33 weeks on sale worldwide Wii has sold an average of 281,819 consoles each week - often outselling PS3 & 360 combined. If that 33 week average continues through the end of 2007 (and it might since it includes a holiday sample and a non holiday sample) Wii will be at 16.06 million units worldwide.
Here is my estimate of Nintendo's market trends since the NES...with 'foes' indicative of who composes each generation.
Console Peak Market Share Worldwide Avg. Marketshare Worldwide Foe(s)
NES 80-85% (1988) ~70% PC Engine, Master System
SNES 60-65% (1995?) ~ 50% Genesis, Turbographx, 3D0
N64 30-35% (1997) ~ 27% PS1,Saturn
GC 17-20% (2003?) ~ 14% DC,PS2,Xbox
Wii 55-60%?? (2008/2009) ~45%?? PS3, Xbox 360
With Wii continuing to outsell each of its rivals worldwide anywhere at 2:1 to 4:1 clip expect the marketshare to grow at least another 10-15% in the short term.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
