360 started off slower than the original Xbox, then started selling as well, and now outpaces it significantly in most world regions. Overall, the pace is up slightly at the moment, but its still accelerating a bit.
Xbox 360 should top 24.5m shipped by the quarter ending 12/31/2008. I suspect it will decline in 2009, but not terribly as it approaches mass market. Theres no reason to think 360 can't top at least 35 million shipped by the time things are said and done, and it should be alot higher than that.
Since 360 sell through will be ~26m by the end of 2008, vs. ~24m sell through for Xbox by the end of 2007 when the channel was finally clear, it seems pretty clear that Xbox 360 still has a decent amount of life left in it.
The issue is, PS3 is slowly but steadily trimming into the 360 lead on a worldwide basis, and Wii could conceivably be 20m ahead of Xbox 360 by the end of 2008 if supply held up, with 15-18m ahead as a more conceivable range.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
