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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

robjoh said: Hus said: PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone. So what happend to Gundam, VF5 which should save them in Japan? Their is always a wait for... The same thing did the GC fans do that didn't understand that we got our asses kicked by the mighty PS2.
What happend, sales dubbled with Gundam. VF5 sucked. release a good/popular game every month and sale will be high. GC was nothing but Nintendos kiddy games.



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HappySqurriel said: After Majesco made Psychonauts (an expensive, critically acclaimed XBox game) and it sold poorly, and lost them a lot of money; after this they decided to focus on reducing development costs, producing simpler games, so that they could turn a profit. They never said that the Wii was about simple games, the implication was that the Wii was the only new platform not pushing developers towards $20 Million budgets. Square and Take Two have embraced the Nintendo DS so I wouldn't see why they wouldn't embrace the Wii. Also, the Unreal engine doesn't make games "Magically" cheaper (and the Wii has the Unreal 2 engine anyways) what it does provide is a consistent high performance game engine which prevents re-work by your art team; there are savings in development but on your 40 to 80 person development team it only saves the work of (about) 4 to 8 people. Most of the expense in producing a PS3/XBox 360 game is in artists producing and animating the game assets; the Unreal engine doesn't have a "Magic" create soldier button which produces a unique soldier that is fully animated. Edit: As for the Rare comment, how many Rare games were produced for the XBox in the 3 years they were owned by Microsoft? Ever wonder why Nintendo (after being approached by the Stamper Bros.) refused to buy Rare? Nintendo didn't buy Rare because they were approaching 4 year development cycles and the quality of their game was dropping ...
You said exactly what I said in regards to Majesco. No need for me to get reredundant. Why would a company develop for a Nintendo portable but not Nintendo consoles? We have a reference point of 12 years of Sony console dominance despite Nintendo portable dominance to make that a pointless question. DS does not equal Wii. Period. If Nintendo wants this market, they'll need more than a lead over Sony in the portable space to make it happen. Again, you decided to unnecessarily complicate things while arriving at the same basic conclusion as I did. UE2? Great, assistance in producing last generation games. Rare obviously wasn't working on Xbox very extensively. However, if they were still working with Nintendo, they would have worked on Gamecube extensively, and they would have released multiple million sellers. Why did Nintendo pass them up? Nintendo doesn't make acquisitions that big and prefers a quick buck. We saw a definite difference in the gap between big games on Cube as compared with N64 as a result.



Shane said: The only positive I've heard about the Wii's software architecture is from Majesco, who says it fits their budget games strategy perfectly. So in addition to Boogie, we can look forward to more Cooking Mama Cookoff. Square and Take Two aren't going to dumb down their games to suit Nintendo's needs. Granted, anyone using UE3 can probably make games cheaper on PS3/360 than they can on Wii. I'd take Sony's first/second party over Nintendo's in terms of sales. They need to find a way to replace the hit they took when Rare left, which didn't happen during the Cube's lifetime.
That's a lie, plenty of developers have chimed in very positively on the Wii platform & FHC mechanics & gaming possibilities. You're right, Square & Take-Two will develop their own proprietary engines utilizing the Wii's strengths. How's Rare working out for MS? Any GE, PD, DKC, Banjo type platinum hits released yet? I wonder why the Stamper brothers left to form a new studio? Why was the developer/programmer turnover so high there? How's Viva selling? Do not start regarding Rare, they aren't the developers they once were. Sony does indeed have some talented 1st/2nd party dev. groups, but the Playstation has always relied heavily upon 3rd party exclusives to maintain dominance & their marketshare allowed for this. It does not any longer, their arrogance (like Nintendo's once upon a time) has been their undoing. Remember this quote? "We could sell 5million units alone without a single game." How's that coming? How many people are getting that second job Ken?



"The things we touch have no permanence."

Shane said: You said exactly what I said in regards to Majesco. No need for me to get reredundant.
The implications of our comments were quite different ... My comment brought up how third parties are seeing the PS3/XBox 360 approach of large budget complicated games as a way to loose a lot of money and are thus embracing the Wii, your comment is that the Wii can only attract simple development.
Shane said: Why would a company develop for a Nintendo portable but not Nintendo consoles? We have a reference point of 12 years of Sony console dominance despite Nintendo portable dominance to make that a pointless question. DS does not equal Wii. Period. If Nintendo wants this market, they'll need more than a lead over Sony in the portable space to make it happen.
Well, the obvious point is that the Wii is selling at a rate where after 6 months they will be in the company of the GBA and PS2 as one of the fastest selling consoles of all time; meaning they will have more than a lead in the portable space. Secondly, Square never embraced the Gameboy line ... it was only after the Wonderswan failed that you saw Square games released for the Gameboy Advance. By becoming (so) dominant Nintendo forced the hands of developers to support them ...
Shane said: Again, you decided to unnecessarily complicate things while arriving at the same basic conclusion as I did. UE2? Great, assistance in producing last generation games.
Um ... the Wii is a current generation console ... the Unreal 2 engine helps produce Wii games therefore it is great assistance in producing current generation games ... Anyways, when publishers like EA, Majesco, and Namco-Bandai say that it costs 2 to 4 times as much to produce PS3 games they're not talking out of their ass (unlike some people on this forum)
Shane said: Rare obviously wasn't working on Xbox very extensively. However, if they were still working with Nintendo, they would have worked on Gamecube extensively, and they would have released multiple million sellers. Why did Nintendo pass them up? Nintendo doesn't make acquisitions that big and prefers a quick buck. We saw a definite difference in the gap between big games on Cube as compared with N64 as a result.
What Million selling games has Rare released in the las 5 years when they were not working on a Nintendo platform? Do you think it was a coincidence that Nintendo passed on a company which was taking 2 years to produce N64 games and that company then takes 4 to 6 years to produce games for Microsoft? In other words Nintendo got hundreds of Millions of dollars from Microsoft for their share of Rare and they didn't lose a single title for the entire life of the Gamecube.



Rare hasn't produced for Microsoft. That's not the issue at hand currently. The issue is what Rare could produce for Nintendo. Rare's average sales during their time with Nintendo was well in excess of 1 million units. I find it hard to believe that would have changed if Rare had stayed onboard. N64 was one of the fastest selling consoles. To which I believe the response is: so? If it's still going like this in 6 months, I'll be impressed. Not ready to hand the torch over to Nintendo but impressed nonetheless. I'm pretty sure Wii's a last generation console competing in the current generation. I do agree that Wii is generally the cheapest console to produce for, at least when it comes to exclusives (I'd be surprised if it's not the most expensive to port to). Apparently, though, when Epic says they made the biggest game of the year for under $10 mil, they're lying.



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Shane said: N64 was one of the fastest selling consoles. To which I believe the response is: so? If it's still going like this in 6 months, I'll be impressed. Not ready to hand the torch over to Nintendo but impressed nonetheless.
Actually, if you look at the 6 month and 1 year data the N64 did not sell all that quickly ... From another thread
HappySqurriel said: Six Month Totals (North America): Gameboy Advance 3,647,250 N64 2,477,500 PS2 2,450,500 XBox 2,184,500 PSP 2,070,750 Nintendo DS 1,988,750 Dreamcast 1,861,000 Gamecube 1,652,250 XBox 360 1,649,250 Year Totals (North America) Gameboy Advance 7,682,500 PS2 4,643,500 PSP 4,396,250 N64 3,884,000 XBox 3,526,750 XBox 360 3,195,500 Nintendo DS 2,754,000 Gamecube 2,634,500 Dreamcast 2,168,500 Japan 26 week total: Gameboy Advance 3,338,750 PS2 2,911,750 Nintendo DS 2,330,250 PSP 1,566,750 N64 1,403,500 Gamecube 1,251,250 Dreamcast 744,000 XBox 261,250 XBox 360 145,000 Japan 52 week total: Gameboy Advance 5,310,000 PS2 3,867,750 Nintendo DS 3,764,750 PSP 2,336,500 N64 2,191,750 Gamecube 1,580,750 Dreamcast 1,296,000 XBox 378,000 XBox 360 195,500 Combined Totals Japan 26 week and North American 6 month Gameboy Advance 6,986,000 PS2 5,362,250 Nintendo DS 4,401,000 N64 3,881,000 PSP 3,637,500 Gamecube 2,903,500 Dreamcast 2,605,000 XBox 2,445,750 XBox 360 1,794,250 Combined Totals Japan 52 week and North American 12 months Gameboy Advance 12,992,500 PS2 8,511,250 PSP 6,732,750 Nintendo DS 6,518,750 N64 6,075,750 Gamecube 4,215,250 XBox 3,904,750 Dreamcast 3,464,500 XBox 360 3,391,000
The Wii is sitting at 1,918,250 consoles sold with 10 weeks before the 26 week mark, and is sitting at 2,107,500 in North America with 2 months to go before the 6 month mark; this means that its sales will be somewhere between the PS2 and Gameboy Advance when it hits its 26 week/6 month milestone.



windbane said: gebx said: Also KBG29 - How many of these killer PS3 apps will stay exclusives?? I know those produced by Sony will stay PS3... but the others? If anything, the 360 (and the Wii) are the only systems that can promise to deliver third party exclusives... so don't count your chicks before they hatch ( or is it chickens? or did I completly screw that up?) uhh, why are 3rd party games for 360 going to remain exclusive? elder scrolls didn't remain exclusive, now did it?
It's a myth, Oblivion was never meant to be an exclusive for the 360. All 360 exclusives have a "Only on Xbox 360" stamp on the cover. Samething for Saints Row. Ok, well I wasn't going to mention this but the only exclusive to go to the PS3 is Enchanted Arms.



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Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles. So? Nintendo needs more than a strong launch to be more than third place. What's going to continue demand going forward? Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda can only get them so far. Unless they get some real third party support and not one crappy announcement here and there, there's only so far they can go. I don't see any data that suggests a change to their ranking from last generation, though we may see a boost back toward N64 levels in terms of unit sales.



It's Sony who needs help right now. Nintendo is still selling out after 4 months and 6 million units pretty much on the strength of Wii Sports and Zelda alone.

Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles.
Only in NA, where it also went on to sell a very respectable 20+ million lifetime.
I don't see any data that suggests a change to their ranking from last generation
You are freaking blind. How about this: PS3 February sales NA + Japan: ~265k 360 February sales NA + Japan: ~282k Wii February sales NA + Japan: ~743k And the Wii is still supply constrained.



Shane said: Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles. So? Nintendo needs more than a strong launch to be more than third place. What's going to continue demand going forward? Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda can only get them so far. Unless they get some real third party support and not one crappy announcement here and there.
You miss that software development needs time. Every title that is upcoming now was planned at least a year ago probably more. Most developers have now rerouted their budgets, now developers or at least more developers are getting accustomed to the Wii and game designs are planned while people were taken from their Xbox 360 and even more PS-3 projects to help for the Wii. You will see the reault in perhaps a year, but then it will be hard to miss.