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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

Shane on 25 March 2007

PS3 has to gain momentum before we can worry about it losing it, which will happen eventually. You don't go from first to worst overnight. Unless you release a system with carts. We're looking at least at a 6 year lifespan and then another year or two tacked on before it starts to fade. I do think the more interesting question is when it will gain momentum, and I would agree with fall. I don't think we'll see anything as abysmal as February, with slow buildup throughout the year, but too much more than 300k prior to October isn't likely (and frankly not particularly necessary either).



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HappySqurriel on 25 March 2007

Shane said: PS3 has to gain momentum before we can worry about it losing it, which will happen eventually. You don't go from first to worst overnight. Unless you release a system with carts. We're looking at least at a 6 year lifespan and then another year or two tacked on before it starts to fade. I do think the more interesting question is when it will gain momentum, and I would agree with fall. I don't think we'll see anything as abysmal as February, with slow buildup throughout the year, but too much more than 300k prior to October isn't likely (and frankly not particularly necessary either).
The problem wasn't cartridges ... The problem was using a technology (that was in some ways superior) which did not line-up with the gaming style that consumers wanted. If the PS3 doesn't see a price cut expect to see it perform on a similar or worse level than February (in comparison to the Wii/XBox 360) for the rest of the year; certainly in Q4 the PS3 will sell a Million units in North America, but it is likely the XBox 360 will sell 2 Million and the Wii could sell 3 Million ...



Hus on 25 March 2007

PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone.



Shane on 25 March 2007

HappySqurriel said:The problem wasn't cartridges ... The problem was using a technology (that was in some ways superior) which did not line-up with the gaming style that consumers wanted.
While I view technology as the potential achilles heel with Wii, with N64, every developer had jumped ship before the system was even launched. Nobody bothered to give them a chance. Worked out just fine for the two companies that did support them, but it was hard to push a system without games.



shams on 25 March 2007

It has to build momentum first. I'll define this as "growing" monthly sales (per territory) of both software and hardware. It has failed to do this in the US, and also in Japan. We won't know about Europe for 1 or 2 months. Then.. once it builds sales, it has to "outsell" one of the other consoles. Easily doing this in Japan (360), but the difference (at the moment) is being made up in the US. So it comes down to Europe. Of course PS3 sales can pick up in the US (or 360 could pick up in Japan). Sony has one serious and obvious problem - public perception. Due to the early release, lots of software, and amazing performance (for its time) - the PS2 ruled all. This does NOT apply to the PS3, and I don't think will ever apply to the PS3 - the Wii has this generation by the balls. ... Again - its just like the PSP vrs DS - the PSP in its own right is doing ok - hardware, software, etc. The DS is killing it (and the gap widening) and the public KNOWS THIS. Sony's challenge is to ensure the SAME thing doesn't happen (or worse) with the PS3. They could get good/excellent sales - but if the Wii outsells it 2-1 for the entire generation (quite possible), the perception is that Sony will have "lost". (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).



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Soulxxx on 25 March 2007

shams said: It has to build momentum first. I'll define this as "growing" monthly sales (per territory) of both software and hardware. It has failed to do this in the US, and also in Japan(BIG BOLD!). We won't know about Europe for 1 or 2 months. Then.. once it builds sales, it has to "outsell" one of the other consoles. Easily doing this in Japan (360), but the difference (at the moment) is being made up in the US. So it comes down to Europe. Of course PS3 sales can pick up in the US (or 360 could pick up in Japan). Sony has one serious and obvious problem - public perception. Due to the early release, lots of software, and amazing performance (for its time) - the PS2 ruled all. This does NOT apply to the PS3, and I don't think will ever apply to the PS3 - the Wii has this generation by the balls. ... Again - its just like the PSP vrs DS - the PSP in its own right is doing ok - hardware, software, etc. The DS is killing it (and the gap widening) and the public KNOWS THIS. Sony's challenge is to ensure the SAME thing doesn't happen (or worse) with the PS3. They could get good/excellent sales - but if the Wii outsells it 2-1 for the entire generation (quite possible), the perception is that Sony will have "lost". (anyone notice how the global sales ratio of DS v PSP, Wii v PS3 are virtually identical? Will see how this progresses over time... And to make matters WORSE, the PS3 has already had the release of more "expected" killer app titles that the Wii to date - all the Wii has is a port of a GC Zelda game).
Bolded - things you got wrong.



Planning on getting a PS3 sometime in July-August.

Li Mu Bai on 25 March 2007

staticneuron said: I assure this console war will not be won by multiplatform ports. Not to mention that most exclusives were defacto sony bacause of large amount of systems sold. So as most people here would know the PS2 had a large list of exclusives. Sony has a little bit of an upperhand because of their first and second party titles. Cellius might help out a bit as well. Ports are not going to be an issue. They never have and they never will be.
Sony's has the upperhand over Nintendo's 1st & 2nd parties? They're practically what kept both the N64 & GC alive & profitable when most 3rd parties had long bailed out. The Wii will in all likelihood receive the most exclusive titles due to its FHC design, & development costs. Given that it continues to sell as it is presently. MG & especially SSB:B are going to be massive.



"The things we touch have no permanence."

robjoh on 25 March 2007

KBG29 said: PS3 will not loose momentum tell about 2011. The PS3s problem right now is that it is ahead of its time. People don't understand what Blu-Ray is, devs don't know how to fully utilize the all of the techs inside the PS3, and lastly a lot of people don't have HDTV or Broadband yet. This is why the PS3 was made for the future. For the year 2007 PS3 will slowly begin to gain momentum as blu ray becomes more established. Once Uncharted, Killzone, MGS4, Heavanly Swoard, Ratchet and Clank, Lair, Singstar, Home, and LBP start coming out sales will begin to pass Wii (360 is already getting outsold). It will also be helped buy movie sales such as Spiderman 3, Casino Royal (which along with Motorstorm will help March significantly) 300, Cars, Pirates of the Caribean, and more. Momentum will continue to rise through 08 with the Getaway, GT5, White Knight Story, FFXIII, 8 Days, and many unanonced exclusives. By dec. 08 it should be at around 300 dollars which will also help.
The first bold: I don't think blu-ray will overtake DVD until the price for a blu-ray movie goes down significant, so 2007 seems a little bit early. Second bold: Are we speaking WW here? because so far PS3 hasn't outsold xbox360 in any month in USA. Februari xbox360 actualy outsold PS3 WW to. Third bold: Do you actualy say that sony will drop the price with 100 USD each year? Sounds a lot for me. more: if the movies you state is blu-ray exclusives I can see a boost in PS3 sales, if they aren't people will still buy the DVD



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

robjoh on 25 March 2007

Hus said: PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone.
So what happend to Gundam, VF5 which should save them in Japan? Their is always a wait for... The same thing did the GC fans do that didn't understand that we got our asses kicked by the mighty PS2.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

gamingdevil on 25 March 2007

Hus said: PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone.
Ahhh I've been hearing that for *EVERY* single PS3 game that is being released... "wait for VF5", "Wait for Gundam", "Wait for MotorStorm"... and the wait will never stop...