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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 will never beat 360 this generation.

Ronster316 on 09 October 2009
Carl2291 said:
Ronster316 said:
Carl2291 said:
loves2splooge said:
The PS3 introduced a new redesign AND introduced a much more impressive price cut and yet they can barely stay over 360 in Americas after 1 month (week of oct 3rd's sales figures are very close now). That is not a good sign.

Worldwide, you'd think that the PS3 would catch up eventually but the MS has more options they can consider at this point to stay competitive. The 360 price cut doesn't even hold a candle to the PS3 price cut so MS has a lot more room to initiate further cuts. The entry cost for a PS3 is now $300, instead of $400 and you get 50% more HD space AND a slim redesign added bonus (80 to 120) whereas the entry cost for a 360 is still $300 (you just have double the hard drive space for that price now). And no the Arcade doesn't count because it's a very barebones system that's only good for offline. Sony really went all-out with this huge price cut and since their system costs more to make than a 360 (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi, Cell processor is more expensive), we know Sony is bleeding much more than Microsoft is on their hardware. Heck MS might not even be bleeding at all on hardware anymore. Microsoft can easily counter with a $50 price cut if they really wanted to. In fact they should. It would take the wind out of the PS3's sails in Europe/Others, the swing region warzone. Whatever they do, MS is not just going to sit there while Sony eats away at their lead in Europe/Others. Japan is already lost (though they shouldn't give up on Japan. They improved quite a bit from last gen), America is already in the bag so you know Europe/Others will be a priority for them. That's where the race will be won or lost.

With MS having deeper pockets and cheaper hardware, red inked Sony doesn't want to play the price slashing game with them. MS can eat the losses no problem whereas Sony's shareholders would be calling for their head if they bled the company further. Sony really made a big desperation move releasing a slim with 50% more HD space at $100 off.

Red- It is the PS3's weakest market and the 360's strongest market. Many were expecting it to be below the 360 there by week 2... And it has done very well staying above 360 thus far.

Orange- Sony also still have a bunch of options.

Green- Yes it does count. It get's counted in sales so it also gets counted in "analysis". 360 entry price is $150.

Blue- They already did try counter with a pricecut, and it didn't work. The next 360 pricecut wont arrive until Natal launches. By that time PS3 manufacturing costs will likely be lower. Hey, guess what... We might even see another small PS3 pricecut or new SKU.

Pink- They dont need to play the price slashing game. They have huge momentum right now and will outsell the 360 by a LOT for the rest of the year. Going into next year Sony has it's biggest ip: Gran Turismo 5 and a LOAD of other big games that will increase hardware both slightly and by a lot. PS3 will consistantly outsell 360 until Natal launch, which is where we will see the next 360 pricecut.


As i said before............ Gran turismo 5= BIG hardware boost.

God of War 3= Boost yes........ but only a small one like Fable II's boost (especially considering that Fable II has already caught GOW up in terms of sales after only ONE year)

As for the rest............ Heavy Rain? (A Shenmue wannabe and we all unfortunately know how poorly Shenmue I & II sold)

MAG?= wont do anything

Ratchet and clank= Good boost but nothing to write home about

Basically any of the sony games (apart from GT 5) above could easily be outsold by the likes of Fable III, Crackdown 2 or Splinter cell: Conviction.

Red- A boost is a boost, it will be pretty substantial too. It will get a lot of media attention for obvious reasons... And it is Sony's game that seem's to cater mainly to the American audience. It will give a good boost in NA, and a small one in Others.

Green- No, no it isn't. The game is already getting a fuck load of media attention and Sony seem to be hyping it up to be the next big thing. While it won't sell much... It could still provide a boost.

Blue- MAG already has 51,000 preorders in NA alone with 16 week's to go until release. Don't count it out just yet...

Pink- It's not about "outselling". It's about the HW boost that game will bring. And i could say the exact same thing about any of the Sony games easily outselling Fable 3, Crackdown 2 or Splinter Cell: Conviction.

By the way, if LBP and KZ2 have sold poorly... Why do you mention Crackdown 2 when the original "only" managed 1.5 Million sales?

I don't do colour schemes..................

RED= did Fable II sell consoles despite it been the first Fable on the 360? NO....... So how will God of War 3 sell consoles when it sold 3.21 million and Fable II is already at 3.16 million......... sorry , i'm just using logic on that one buddy.

Green........ media attention or hype do not = sales, Haze? Too human? ect ect. (Besides, Shenmue had lots of hype and it didn't convert in to sales based on the final numbers of Dreamcasts sold)

Bliue= 51,000 sales? for all we know somthing like RISEN could sell as well as MAG

Pink= You think MAG, Ratchet ect can match Alan wake and Slpinter cell: conviction? i highly doubt that.

LBP and Killzone were hyped like there is NO TOMORROW......... LBP was even featured on the Jonathon Ross show and many media outlets and STILL barely sold over 2 million........ Killzone? oh, you mean "That" Halo killer? LOL



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LF-A on 09 October 2009
madskillz said:
loves2splooge said:
The PS3 introduced a new redesign AND introduced a much more impressive price cut and yet they can barely stay over 360 in Americas after 1 month (week of oct 3rd's sales figures are very close now). That is not a good sign.

Worldwide, you'd think that the PS3 would catch up eventually but the MS has more options they can consider at this point to stay competitive. The 360 price cut doesn't even hold a candle to the PS3 price cut so MS has a lot more room to initiate further cuts. The entry cost for a PS3 is now $300, instead of $400 and you get 50% more HD space AND a slim redesign added bonus (80 to 120) whereas the entry cost for a 360 is still $300 (you just have double the hard drive space for that price now). And no the Arcade doesn't count because it's a very barebones system that's only good for offline. Sony really went all-out with this huge price cut and since their system costs more to make than a 360 (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi, Cell processor is more expensive), we know Sony is bleeding much more than Microsoft is on their hardware. Heck MS might not even be bleeding at all on hardware anymore. Microsoft can easily counter with a $50 price cut if they really wanted to. In fact they should. It would take the wind out of the PS3's sails in Europe/Others, the swing region warzone. Whatever they do, MS is not just going to sit there while Sony eats away at their lead in Europe/Others. Japan is already lost (though they shouldn't give up on Japan. They improved quite a bit from last gen), America is already in the bag so you know Europe/Others will be a priority for them. That's where the race will be won or lost.

With MS having deeper pockets and cheaper hardware, red inked Sony doesn't want to play the price slashing game with them. MS can eat the losses no problem whereas Sony's shareholders would be calling for their head if they bled the company further. Sony really made a big desperation move releasing a slim with 50% more HD space at $100 off.

Excellent analysis. +1.

Not really.

Peice cuts.  - Sorry but MS can't easily just do a price cut, they cant just always counter Sony.  If their strategy is to counter they will lose.  They are in this to make money, not piss away profits in fanboy's dream war to the death with Sony.

Europe - ms is losing there and always was, other then the uk PS3 beats the 360 over there even at a much higher price.  Europeans see the value of the PS3 better then na people do.  The brand is much stronger their Sony as a whole is very popular while MS is not. 

And MS shareholders will just let them waste billions ins a gaming pissing contest with Sony, ok there.

Slim a desperate move - lol where you pull that bs out from, PSone PS2Slim.  PS3slim was made to CUT COSTS that's just a fact, just how delusional must you be to believe other wise when they used the same strategy twice already.  More hd space costs very little while its is a nice marketing sales gimmick.  Hell you fell for it by mentioning it as if a big deal. 

 

But yes the winner will be decided in Europe.

 

 

 

 



tuscaniman on 09 October 2009

119,000 preorders is below average in my opinion. Those are your diehard Tekken/fighting genre fans. I am also a diehard fighting genre fan myself but If Tekken sells 2 million copies total in NA over both consoles I'd be surprised. Like I said MW2 comes out the SAME DAY which I just now realized. With that being the case I take it back and say I'll be surprised if Tekken sells 1 million. MW2 will dominate sales and everyone will be spending their time and money on that game. I also want to know how many of those 119,000 are system sellers? I'm guessing 0 since if they preordered the game they already have the system. You can't say ODST wasn't a system seller with over 2 million preorders but Tekken will be a system seller with 119,000 preorders. Just doesn't add up. Tekken is not gonna make an impact in this console war.



loves2splooge on 09 October 2009
Carl2291 said:
loves2splooge said:
The PS3 introduced a new redesign AND introduced a much more impressive price cut and yet they can barely stay over 360 in Americas after 1 month (week of oct 3rd's sales figures are very close now). That is not a good sign.

Worldwide, you'd think that the PS3 would catch up eventually but the MS has more options they can consider at this point to stay competitive. The 360 price cut doesn't even hold a candle to the PS3 price cut so MS has a lot more room to initiate further cuts. The entry cost for a PS3 is now $300, instead of $400 and you get 50% more HD space AND a slim redesign added bonus (80 to 120) whereas the entry cost for a 360 is still $300 (you just have double the hard drive space for that price now). And no the Arcade doesn't count because it's a very barebones system that's only good for offline. Sony really went all-out with this huge price cut and since their system costs more to make than a 360 (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi, Cell processor is more expensive), we know Sony is bleeding much more than Microsoft is on their hardware. Heck MS might not even be bleeding at all on hardware anymore. Microsoft can easily counter with a $50 price cut if they really wanted to. In fact they should. It would take the wind out of the PS3's sails in Europe/Others, the swing region warzone. Whatever they do, MS is not just going to sit there while Sony eats away at their lead in Europe/Others. Japan is already lost (though they shouldn't give up on Japan. They improved quite a bit from last gen), America is already in the bag so you know Europe/Others will be a priority for them. That's where the race will be won or lost.

With MS having deeper pockets and cheaper hardware, red inked Sony doesn't want to play the price slashing game with them. MS can eat the losses no problem whereas Sony's shareholders would be calling for their head if they bled the company further. Sony really made a big desperation move releasing a slim with 50% more HD space at $100 off.

Red- It is the PS3's weakest market and the 360's strongest market. Many were expecting it to be below the 360 there by week 2... And it has done very well staying above 360 thus far.

Orange- Sony also still have a bunch of options.

Green- Yes it does count. It get's counted in sales so it also gets counted in "analysis". 360 entry price is $150.

Blue- They already did try counter with a pricecut, and it didn't work. The next 360 pricecut wont arrive until Natal launches. By that time PS3 manufacturing costs will likely be lower. Hey, guess what... We might even see another small PS3 pricecut or new SKU.

Pink- They dont need to play the price slashing game. They have huge momentum right now and will outsell the 360 by a LOT for the rest of the year. Going into next year Sony has it's biggest ip: Gran Turismo 5 and a LOAD of other big games that will increase hardware both slightly and by a lot. PS3 will consistantly outsell 360 until Natal launch, which is where we will see the next 360 pricecut.

The Arcade does not count as real competition. It is a very barebones system. 256MB, 512 MB or whatever space the memory unit offers is nothing. Only good for offline because there's no HDD or headset. And it doesn't come with HD cables either. This is why the Arcade sku is much less popular than the Elite. And where are you getting $150? It's $200.

Didn't you listen to what I said? The 360 price cut was a joke compared to the PS3 price cut. All they did was double the hard drive space for the same price. The PS3 on the other hand dropped by $100 and they added 50% more HD space to boot and a redesign. Don't even compare the two cuts. And like I said, considering PS3 has Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi and their processor is more costly (Cell), Sony is losing a lot more on the hardware even though they're being sold at the same price. MS can afford to cut the price even more (with 360 being cheaper to manufacture) and it will make a difference if they do. Sony has the advantage because they are selling more (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi) for the same price. If MS goes without a price cut (or at least some other trick under their sleeve) until NATAL, they'd be idiots. In Americas, it's not a concern because the Xbox brand is strong over there. But in Europe it's obvious that the more impressive PS3 price cut made the difference. The market in Europe has clearly decided that the Xbox is overpriced (why else would they jump ship to PS3 instead of stay with 360 if the 360 price cut was supposedly just as effective?). The Elite should be $249. And if Sony wants to follow down to that price point and lose even more money, their shareholders aren't gonna be too happy.



tuscaniman on 09 October 2009

I haven't seen this point brought up yet and I apologize if I'm repeating an opinion that has already been expressed but just how big a system seller will Forza 3 be? I think with all the great reviews combined with the holiday season combined with the GT5 players tired of waiting for GT5 itself I think it will push some consoles. Especially in EU. Why wait 5 months for a racing sim that may not be any better than Forza 3 which is out now? Especially when its available for the holidays. The time people actually have some spending money.



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Ronster316 on 09 October 2009

Just looked at Ratchet and Clunks sales for both ps1 and ps2......... DAMN....!!!!! that game has sold poorly when you consider that both ps1 and ps2 sold over 100 million.

Hardware boost when ratchet comes out?

I think not.

Sonic outsold Ratchet on a console with 4x less userbase. (The almighty Megadrive)



mundus6 on 09 October 2009
sharky974 said:

Now we have so many threads about how PS3 is going to beat 360 now..face facts, the numbers for PS3 just dont work out, probably even worldwide.

The last worldwide shipping totals which is the closest we have to 100% accurate worldwide sales imo (yes, it's not sales, but it's something close), is 31.4m 360 and 23.8 PS3 as of June 31 2009.

 

So Xbox is 7.6m in the lead.

 

Since we get ship numbers every quarter, using those..Sony has to ship 1 million more per quarter for 7 quarters just to catch up. that's basically two years, meaning June 2011. Last year in the 4Q Ms shipped about 1.5m more than Sony..lets say Sony flips that this year, theyre still 6.1m behind, with slow Q's coming up. It's going to be very hard to gain 1m a Q when for example, last June 31 Q both only shipped ~1m units.

 

The problem is I just dont see that as possible, MS will bring out Natal, Halo Reach, price drops of it's own, all things that will prevent PS3 from gaining. Natal alone could bring a big spur of 360 sales.

 

I think Pachters NPD predictions illustrate how difficult an opponent 360 is. Even in it's first month with all the hype, Sony could barely outsell the 360 which had no real price drop at all. Sure Sony does better in EU and has no competition from 360 in Japan, but it still just shows how tough microsoft hangs in there.

 

You have to remember that Sony is talking about 10 year life cycles, even if the next console is out they will not pull the plug on PS3. M$ might pull the plug when the next Xbox arrives. If that happens the PS3 will surpass its sales, but the current generation wont be relevant by then. The PS3 will not overtake the 360 before at least 2012 though.



loves2splooge on 09 October 2009
LF-A said:
madskillz said:
loves2splooge said:
The PS3 introduced a new redesign AND introduced a much more impressive price cut and yet they can barely stay over 360 in Americas after 1 month (week of oct 3rd's sales figures are very close now). That is not a good sign.

Worldwide, you'd think that the PS3 would catch up eventually but the MS has more options they can consider at this point to stay competitive. The 360 price cut doesn't even hold a candle to the PS3 price cut so MS has a lot more room to initiate further cuts. The entry cost for a PS3 is now $300, instead of $400 and you get 50% more HD space AND a slim redesign added bonus (80 to 120) whereas the entry cost for a 360 is still $300 (you just have double the hard drive space for that price now). And no the Arcade doesn't count because it's a very barebones system that's only good for offline. Sony really went all-out with this huge price cut and since their system costs more to make than a 360 (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi, Cell processor is more expensive), we know Sony is bleeding much more than Microsoft is on their hardware. Heck MS might not even be bleeding at all on hardware anymore. Microsoft can easily counter with a $50 price cut if they really wanted to. In fact they should. It would take the wind out of the PS3's sails in Europe/Others, the swing region warzone. Whatever they do, MS is not just going to sit there while Sony eats away at their lead in Europe/Others. Japan is already lost (though they shouldn't give up on Japan. They improved quite a bit from last gen), America is already in the bag so you know Europe/Others will be a priority for them. That's where the race will be won or lost.

With MS having deeper pockets and cheaper hardware, red inked Sony doesn't want to play the price slashing game with them. MS can eat the losses no problem whereas Sony's shareholders would be calling for their head if they bled the company further. Sony really made a big desperation move releasing a slim with 50% more HD space at $100 off.

Excellent analysis. +1.

Not really.

Peice cuts.  - Sorry but MS can't easily just do a price cut, they cant just always counter Sony.  If their strategy is to counter they will lose.  They are in this to make money, not piss away profits in fanboy's dream war to the death with Sony.

Europe - ms is losing there and always was, other then the uk PS3 beats the 360 over there even at a much higher price.  Europeans see the value of the PS3 better then na people do.  The brand is much stronger their Sony as a whole is very popular while MS is not. 

And MS shareholders will just let them waste billions ins a gaming pissing contest with Sony, ok there.

Slim a desperate move - lol where you pull that bs out from, PSone PS2Slim.  PS3slim was made to CUT COSTS that's just a fact, just how delusional must you be to believe other wise when they used the same strategy twice already.  More hd space costs very little while its is a nice marketing sales gimmick.  Hell you fell for it by mentioning it as if a big deal. 

 

But yes the winner will be decided in Europe.

 

 

 

 

I've already said that the 360 is cheaper to manufacture than the PS3 (No Blu-Ray, No Wi-fi, Processor not as costly as a Cell). Therefore MS can easily accord to price the console cheaper, especially since they are a very profitable corporation. Sony is in the red. By selling their console for $100 less they've been bleeding themselves. Microsoft's shareholders are in a much better position right now.



Ronster316 on 09 October 2009
tuscaniman said:
I haven't seen this point brought up yet and I apologize if I'm repeating an opinion that has already been expressed but just how big a system seller will Forza 3 be? I think with all the great reviews combined with the holiday season combined with the GT5 players tired of waiting for GT5 itself I think it will push some consoles. Especially in EU. Why wait 5 months for a racing sim that may not be any better than Forza 3 which is out now? Especially when its available for the holidays. The time people actually have some spending money.


Microsoft have delivered this gen................ thats the BOTTOM LINE__________________________

Two Gears of wars..............

Two Halo's....... (FPS Halo)

Two Forzas...........

Two Left 4 Deads........

Two Project gotham racings..........

And soon it will be..............

Three Gears of Wars

Two Fables

And Three Halo's



Carl on 09 October 2009
Ronster316 said:
Carl2291 said:
Ronster316 said:
Carl2291 said:
loves2splooge said:
The PS3 introduced a new redesign AND introduced a much more impressive price cut and yet they can barely stay over 360 in Americas after 1 month (week of oct 3rd's sales figures are very close now). That is not a good sign.

Worldwide, you'd think that the PS3 would catch up eventually but the MS has more options they can consider at this point to stay competitive. The 360 price cut doesn't even hold a candle to the PS3 price cut so MS has a lot more room to initiate further cuts. The entry cost for a PS3 is now $300, instead of $400 and you get 50% more HD space AND a slim redesign added bonus (80 to 120) whereas the entry cost for a 360 is still $300 (you just have double the hard drive space for that price now). And no the Arcade doesn't count because it's a very barebones system that's only good for offline. Sony really went all-out with this huge price cut and since their system costs more to make than a 360 (Blu-Ray, Wi-Fi, Cell processor is more expensive), we know Sony is bleeding much more than Microsoft is on their hardware. Heck MS might not even be bleeding at all on hardware anymore. Microsoft can easily counter with a $50 price cut if they really wanted to. In fact they should. It would take the wind out of the PS3's sails in Europe/Others, the swing region warzone. Whatever they do, MS is not just going to sit there while Sony eats away at their lead in Europe/Others. Japan is already lost (though they shouldn't give up on Japan. They improved quite a bit from last gen), America is already in the bag so you know Europe/Others will be a priority for them. That's where the race will be won or lost.

With MS having deeper pockets and cheaper hardware, red inked Sony doesn't want to play the price slashing game with them. MS can eat the losses no problem whereas Sony's shareholders would be calling for their head if they bled the company further. Sony really made a big desperation move releasing a slim with 50% more HD space at $100 off.

Red- It is the PS3's weakest market and the 360's strongest market. Many were expecting it to be below the 360 there by week 2... And it has done very well staying above 360 thus far.

Orange- Sony also still have a bunch of options.

Green- Yes it does count. It get's counted in sales so it also gets counted in "analysis". 360 entry price is $150.

Blue- They already did try counter with a pricecut, and it didn't work. The next 360 pricecut wont arrive until Natal launches. By that time PS3 manufacturing costs will likely be lower. Hey, guess what... We might even see another small PS3 pricecut or new SKU.

Pink- They dont need to play the price slashing game. They have huge momentum right now and will outsell the 360 by a LOT for the rest of the year. Going into next year Sony has it's biggest ip: Gran Turismo 5 and a LOAD of other big games that will increase hardware both slightly and by a lot. PS3 will consistantly outsell 360 until Natal launch, which is where we will see the next 360 pricecut.


As i said before............ Gran turismo 5= BIG hardware boost.

God of War 3= Boost yes........ but only a small one like Fable II's boost (especially considering that Fable II has already caught GOW up in terms of sales after only ONE year)

As for the rest............ Heavy Rain? (A Shenmue wannabe and we all unfortunately know how poorly Shenmue I & II sold)

MAG?= wont do anything

Ratchet and clank= Good boost but nothing to write home about

Basically any of the sony games (apart from GT 5) above could easily be outsold by the likes of Fable III, Crackdown 2 or Splinter cell: Conviction.

Red- A boost is a boost, it will be pretty substantial too. It will get a lot of media attention for obvious reasons... And it is Sony's game that seem's to cater mainly to the American audience. It will give a good boost in NA, and a small one in Others.

Green- No, no it isn't. The game is already getting a fuck load of media attention and Sony seem to be hyping it up to be the next big thing. While it won't sell much... It could still provide a boost.

Blue- MAG already has 51,000 preorders in NA alone with 16 week's to go until release. Don't count it out just yet...

Pink- It's not about "outselling". It's about the HW boost that game will bring. And i could say the exact same thing about any of the Sony games easily outselling Fable 3, Crackdown 2 or Splinter Cell: Conviction.

By the way, if LBP and KZ2 have sold poorly... Why do you mention Crackdown 2 when the original "only" managed 1.5 Million sales?

I don't do color schemes..................

RED= did Fable II sell consoles despite it been the first Fable on the 360? NO....... So how will God of War 3 sell consoles when it sold 3.21 million and Fable II is already at 3.16 million......... sorry , i'm just using logic on that one buddy.

Green........ media attention or hype do not = sales, Haze? Too human? ect ect. (Besides, Shenmue had lots of hype and it didn't convert in to sales based on the final numbers of Dreamcasts sold)

Bliue= 51,000 sales? for all we know somthing like RISEN could sell as well as MAG

Pink= You think MAG, Ratchet ect can match Alan wake and Slpinter cell: conviction? i highly doubt that.

LBP and Killzone were hyped like there is NO TOMORROW......... LBP was even featured on the Jonathon Ross show and many media outlets and STILL barely sold over 2 million........ Killzone? oh, you mean "That" Halo killer? LOL

Red- It did, just not majorly. Fable also isn't a AAA franchise, GoW is. There are several factors.

Green- POSITIVE media attention. Haze and Too Human never recieved the amount of praise that Heavy Rain is getting and neither were something new to the industry like Heavy Rain is shaping up to be. Sony showing so much attention to it guarentee's it is being set up for good advertising.

Blue- 51,000 preorders in one region... with 16 weeks left until release. For all we know 3D Dot Game Heroes could sell as well as Splinter Cell.

Pink- No, i think the whole library i mentioned can outsell Alan Wake(New IP) and Splinter Cell: Conviction(Sequel to a game that sold 1.14M)

Bolded- LBP is still selling 20-25k a week and is at 2.43 Million sales, i would hardly call that "barely" over 2 Million. Killzone 2 is also selling 20-25k a week and is about to hit 2 Million units sold in under a year. Which for both games is very good. What makes you think Sony wont advertise other games like they did those ones?