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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendomination at an end?

@Montana, See doesn't that feel good?



To Each Man, Responsibility
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Well ,the Wii has sure lost a lot of strenght in Japan .We will see if it is due to the season as it seems or if it is the beggining of something .In Europe and NA they are doing great although not as strong as some time before .In any case some voices are being heard about the machine and the forums of the websites are starting to show some fever against the machine .Maybe its a small thing ,but this kind of viral marketing is what gave the PS3 a bad name after all .Besides ,the Wii should start showing some good software and selling some no-Nintendo games for the industry to embrace it.Selling millions to casuals that buy one or two Nintendo game per year and are happy with that wont make the industry very happy.

The x360 is exceptionally strong in the NA right now .As it was to be expected asits very close to the Halo 3 release still .I have some curiosity to see the NPD numbers for september and october though ,I have the feeling some will have bad news and a great adjustement will have to be made to the site.After the sites number the amount of 360 sold in september in NA alone is in excess of 520K units ..Patcher thinks it will be some 450K and I think it will be even lower(not by much ).And the same for october.I also think the amount of 360 tracked in Europe is somewhat too high.If only MS opened their mouth to say how many 360 they have in Europe ...but their record isnt very good so they keep silence.

As for PS3 ,once the price drop to 399 is effective in NA and Japan then the PS3 should start moving even more units .When it passed from 599 to 499 it managed a big push and then stabilized around 35K(as last month ) weekly that was nearly 70% more than the numbers it managed at 599 dollars .At 399 it can get another 50% push to 52K units weekly and finally move into the 200K+ monthly .In Europe the numbers will be permanently bolstered by the price cut .Dont know in wich level but surely over the 50K mark .And the mystery lays in Japan ...the PS3 has showed very little there and its sales remain stable although at low levels.The Wii is slighty over right now .If the price drop and the arrival of some games finally can turn the japanese attention to the machine then it could manage 40K weekly .If the Wii will pick up again in sales once the season is good again then I dont see why the PS3 wich is at nearly the same level cant pick up until 40K weekly.

As for the future I dont know ...Nintendo has some stuff coming with their various Marios (Galaxy ,Smash ,Kart,Olympics ) and their casual games as Wii Fit or Zelda Zapper or whaterver its called.Some companies have some relatively big projects and some games will be released as Nights ,No More Heroes,Monster Hunter 3 or Zack and Wiki ......but that doesnt seem too much seeing the kind of software the PS3 and X360 are getting next year and beyond .Each time a big game is released it is always for both the PS3 and 360 but few times for the Wii.The Wii wont manage to survive that in the long term.Games as Fallout 3 ,Pandora the Box ,Prototype ,Mass Effect ,Too Human ,Final Fantasy XIII ,Little Big Planet ,Lost Oddysey ,Bionic Commando ,Gran Turismo 5 ,Killzone 2 ,Alone in the Dark ,Resident Evil 5 ,Silent Hill 5 ,Soul Calibur IV ,Tekken 6 ,Metal Gear Solid 4 ,White Knight Story ,LA .Noire ,Grand Theft Auto 4 ,The Last Remnant ...are announced for one of the other machines or both and the Wii wont see one of those.I mean ,look at when big games are announced ....they usually dont have a Wii version in the planning.And this wont change because its technical weakness .I wonder what will happen when the other plattfoms have like hundreds and hundreds of games and the Wii has half those at best and of much worse quality.



Dodece said:

The hardware sales are out for all regions, and what a remarkable week it has been for hardware. Surprises abound, and every region has a story to tell uniquely its own. Sony beats the competition in the other regions. Microsoft lays a minor beating on Nintendo in North America. Nintendo has slid into mediocrity in Japan. Perhaps the most interesting fact is that perhaps Nintendomination has come to an end.

Month after month Nintendo has easily dominated the competition in all the markets. Sometimes outselling their rivals by multiples. Sometimes two, three, or even four to one. However this week its not the case even though Nintendo still won. They did so by the smallest margin. The Xbox 360 is within fifteen thousand units of the champion. The PS3 is only sixty thousand units off the reigning champ. Obviously Microsoft is the likely contender at this moment, but the PS3 is starting to show some strength in Japan. So the whole owning that market just might be in doubt.

What does everyone think is Nintendomination over, or are their two rivals hitting them with a well timed attack that only makes it appear so. Frankly I hope we see a good fist fight this holiday season between Microsoft and Nintendo. Not sure Sony can get into the tussle in a meaningful way when it comes to dominance. However Sony could be a spoiler for Nintendo especially in Japan. What do you guys think are this weeks charts sending us a message?

Charts for quick reference in this supremely dugg site.

 Japan
America
Others
76,826111,861158,975347,662
70,13375,36562,027207,525
19,66088,84375,033183,536
3,413123,09842,244168,755
13,64631,39477,827122,867
 

Nintendomination was always bound to "fade" around the holiday period. Sales of both the 360/PS3 *will* pick up, and match the sales of the Wii - at least over some weeks. There was never a chance the Wii would sell 3-4x the sales of the 360 over holidays, and 5-6x the PS3.

The key indicator of Nintendomination has been strong sales OUTSIDE of the holiday period - that is why what happens during Q1 '08 is critical to the outcome of this generation.

I still expect the holiday (WW) sales to go: Wii > 360 > PS3 - although if the PS3 does really well in Japan, it could outsell the 360 WW. The PS2 may even outsell the Wii - although more likely to be between the 360 & Wii somewhere.

...

And apart this, making a statement that Nintendomination is "over" - based on a single weeks worth of figures - is pretty poor:

 - Wii STILL outsold PS3 & 360 WW (is this end of domination?)
 - Wii + DS still accounts for around 50% of total hardware sales
 - PS3, PSP & 360 all received new models + pricecuts - DS & Wii have not
 - biggest Wii titles of the year around the corner
 - Wii (& DS?) still supply constrained

If this is the "end" of Nintendomination - I think Nintendo would actually settle for this.

Can you imagine that the charts would look like if:

 - Galaxy, Brawl & Mario&Sonic got released
 - Wii supply constrained VANISHED
 - Wii & DS price cuts / bundles

...all happened at the same time...? 



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megaxl said:

sorry if i said fanboy to montana sqrl if only that i feel that, montana comments are very agressive, i only call them fanboy but he call me asshole you see the difference.


 It was more how he was dejected and you sort of pounced on him while he was feeling crappy.  I don't think he needed to call you an asshole tbh, but I can understand why he is frustrated as I have been there myself.



To Each Man, Responsibility
Sqrl said:
megaxl said:

sorry if i said fanboy to montana sqrl if only that i feel that, montana comments are very agressive, i only call them fanboy but he call me asshole you see the difference.


It was more how he was dejected and you sort of pounced on him while he was feeling crappy. I don't think he needed to call you an asshole tbh, but I can understand why he is frustrated as I have been there myself.


 Holy Chickens,are we on Oprah? Go get a room you two.



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Ah, life is good....WHO'S UP FOR CUPCAKES?!

 

Nintendo will hold a near insurmountable lead in Japan when Mario Galaxy comes out, it will compete neck and neck with the 360 in America for the rest of 07 with lots of 360 releases like Mass Effect, and I think it will be PS3 vs. Wii in Europe. 



 

 

They're all in video games industry, but I tend to think their business models are very different. The manner in which they will compete against one another is different. PS3 is the most notable one, in that its marketting is more like a TV or home cinema. On the other side of the scale, Wii's marketting has revolved around a sponteneous sales based on curiosity and freshness.

So, I'm not sure how much we can read into a fluctuation in sales data. We aren't comparing 3 brands of chocolate bars in a shop. Looks like it, but it isn't.

Just like in the stock market, I see fluctuations as a part of every day occurance rather than anything to read into in a long run. Wii has been the only one that has "beaten" that fluctuation at the beginning, so in that regard I can understand if people read more into that segment of history.

But otherwise, I think we're far from seeing the final result. Impartially speaking, I can honestly think of 3 different paths, each leading to a different result. In that perspective, the speculation in this thread seems ridiculously premature, whatever your conclusion is.



superchunk said:
Sqrl said:
megaxl said:

sorry if i said fanboy to montana sqrl if only that i feel that, montana comments are very agressive, i only call them fanboy but he call me asshole you see the difference.


It was more how he was dejected and you sort of pounced on him while he was feeling crappy. I don't think he needed to call you an asshole tbh, but I can understand why he is frustrated as I have been there myself.


Holy Chickens,are we on Oprah? Go get a room you two.


 lol



superchunk said:
Sqrl said:
megaxl said:

sorry if i said fanboy to montana sqrl if only that i feel that, montana comments are very agressive, i only call them fanboy but he call me asshole you see the difference.


It was more how he was dejected and you sort of pounced on him while he was feeling crappy. I don't think he needed to call you an asshole tbh, but I can understand why he is frustrated as I have been there myself.


Holy Chickens,are we on Oprah? Go get a room you two.


If I was on Oprah I would be talking about Wii Fit not Montana feeling down =P 

 



To Each Man, Responsibility

I feel your pain montana, I get tired of this too, I get tired of it every once and a while and have for the past ten years. But I come back for the same reason sports fans come back every year. It's fun to have a team. You ever listen to a sports talk show? Boring as hell to me, seems completely asinine. But it's the exact same thing we're doing here. It's entertainment. Some people like to follow on what's going on with the ol' baseball, argue about who's going to win the...pennant (?), or what have you and will do so til kingdom come. We're here for the same reason. A combination of comradery and competition, the joys of gloating and the never ending assumption that we'll get back at them when "they" score a victory. And we'll argue the hows and whys of it until our fingers are bloody stumps, and our eyes are dried unblinking raisins. But hell, that's the fun of it.

I don't mind your rambling, but when I feel like that I just back off for a while, read a good book, spend time doing something that feels worthwhile. And eventually I check the news sites and then hurry back here (or whatever my hang out of choice was, ioi has created a pretty great hangout here) and get back into the fray.

I hope you feel better, maybe go do something else you love, and we'll see you back here when you're good and ready to argue pointlessly some more :)



You can find me on facebook as Markus Van Rijn, if you friend me just mention you're from VGchartz and who you are here.