How much did the 360 hardware go up from last year?

I didn't believe they would be profitable at $300, there is a huge difference. 

It'll miss it but by a lot less than I would've thought for sure only a week ago.

Sony has always been overly optimistic about their sales as have their fans. More to the point they underestimate what the competition is capable of doing. Sony may be going for a major price cut, but what will Microsoft or even Nintendo do in response. This is not a thought experiment being done in a vacuum. What the competition does will impact the sales of the PS3.

I would say while we have a idea of positive impetus for PS3 sales. We do not necessarily know what the negative impetus pushing against them will be. I for one am not going to assume that there will not be a response from the other competitors. There are a lot of things they can do that will negatively affect PS3 sales.

@Dodece

You are most certainly right, but Sony also isn't going to rest on the 7th day of creation and expect the price drop alone to shoot them to 1st place. As an example: the Wands seem to be the best of both worlds (Natal and Wii) and we'll get more details on them at TGS.

It will probably miss the mark by a million or two.

Yeah, I think they'll pass it. A $299 PS3 in Japan with Final Fantasy XIII and GT5 as exclusives later this year will be huge.

Optimistic numbers. It will be around 10mil, close to 13mil.

Depends on the economy, if there's a rebound they would be in a good position