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UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

Forums - Sony Discussion - UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

mendozahotness said:
osamanobama said:

1) what... i posted numbers for both pre release and post release. and also averaged both. also when including all of them (even the ones after the games release) God of War is as of today, spot on, but good thing its still going to sell tomorrow, and the next day, and the next and the next, etc. Uncharted is Uncharted is absurdly under, only Gt5 is over. and thats because its been out for 8 months, and hasnt had a second Chistmas.

I would like to review your math, so I would like you to show the sub-totals, totals and workings out. You said you did the averages so you must have added them all up one by one. If you could list them in

1) How many predictions over all were over

2) How Many predictions overall were under

3) How many were within the realms of being correct (this one isn't actually necessary as it makes no difference)

Also a quote for each as evidence would be great. Remember, we are not trying to find out the average figure (i think you missed the point on this one) we  are trying to find out the number of estimates which were overor under the current figures. My estimates figure only applies to one set of people at a time, combining them is only going to steal crow from the plate of those who were wrong.

osamanobama said:

2) i have no idea what you are saying. GT4 sold over 14,000 last week.

So GT4 is near level pegging with GT5?

osamanobama said:

2) i dont dont know what supposition means. but yes GT5 should add another 3-4 lifetime. and even if it doesnt all it needs is 2 million to reach the predictions, and 2.3 for post and pre predictions, something it will come close to doing by the end of this year, and will pass with in a year from now.

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million. just look at any GT game and see its sales patterns

Supposition is an assumption or the act of supposing. If you're saying that if a game is selling 15,000 a week or there abouts, is going to sell 1.7m in the next 6 months and 4 million "for the rest of its life", then we should expect Fable 3, AC:B and a number of other games to hit the 7-8 million life times as they are doing the same. 

osamanobama said:

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million.

Right, so you are saying it is typical for games as popular or even more popular to sell 2.8 million between it's 8th and 24th month of availability. Or for example, CoD:BlOps will sell approx 5.8 million more between now and the end of 2012 as well. 

for the bolded i meant to say GT5, GT4 sold 0.

for you bottom part, you have to look at sales patterns of said game, previous entry in the series or similar games. COD dont have good legs after a year becuase a new one comes out, so for example Black ops on PS3 will sell less than 12 million lifetime, not 15-20 million. Fable games have terrible legs, this one also got bad reviews killing it legs. Uncharted last year had a hge Christmas boost selling like 1 million in the time frame, GOW3 sold even more. looking at GT5 and using the criteria i explained we can only assume it is going to be arounf 8 million by the end of this year. 

and here are you numbers

there were 25 predictions  each for GOW3/ UC2, and GT5 pre release.

24 out of 25 predictions were low for god of war

24 out of 25 (and the 25th was right on, so 25/25 at or below) of the Uncharted predictions were low

5 out of 25 of Gt5 predictions were low, and will be about 12 by the end of this year.

god of war uncharted gt5
4.5 3.8 9
4 4 9
4 4 10
5 3 9.5
3.2 2.8 8.5
4 4 9
3.5 2.8 8
3 3 6.5
2.4 2.75 7
3.5 3 7.56
3 2.8 5.5
3.25 3 11
3 2.5 8
3.75 3.75 9
2.5 4 13
3.75 4.75 7.5
4 2.8 6
3 3.5 5.5
3.6 3.2 8
3 2.7 10
2 3.5 6.3
3 2.6 8.5
2.9 3.5 6.3
2.5 2 10
4 4 11

there were also 25 predictions post release for GOW and Uncharted, and 19 for GT5.

4 out of 25 for gow3 were to low, by the end of this year it wil be 12 of 25.

8 out of 25 (2 are spot on) were low for uncharted, and by the end of this year it will be 21/22 of 25.

2 out 19 were low for gt5, by the end of this year it will be 5 of 19.

GOW3             Uncharted 2  GT5                 
3.7 4 6
3.2 3.6 7.8
2 2.8 8
5 5 10
4.2 4.2 8.8
5 5 -
5 5 10.5
5 5 10
5 5 -
3.75 3.75 9
4.5 5 -
4.1 4.6 -
4.5 4.75 9.5
4.2 4 9.5
4.1 4.75 9.5
4.8 5 -
5 5 -
4 4.9 11
4 5 9
4 4 11
4.7 5 9.5
5 5.1 6
6.5 5.5 9
6 6.5 10
6 6 8


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You're right Mendoza. Our predictions were utter failures. Because our LIFETIME predictions haven't come true TODAY, that means we were just wrong. Because obviously, when we said Lifetime, we didn't mean when they're doing selling, we meant July 2011 because that's the cut off point for lifetime. Time to eat teh crow!

Seriously though, lifetime means when they're done selling. That could be 2, 4, 6, or even 8 or more years. Just look at GTA SA, the game still has another million or more left in it. If someone predicted it to sell 20m, they would be right. Even if it took 6+ years to reach that point.



snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.



                                                                                                                                            

CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

i believe i have, what you would call, "owned" him 



@Mendo

That giant post of over-estimates you pointed out was just stupid. Over 90% of them were about GT5 and said that the game would touch 10million and your problem is that the game has only about 6.5M right now.

GT games sell over time. Everyone but you seems to know this. This thread was about LIFETIME SALES not sales up to August 1st, 2011. GT4 got to 10Million after like 3 years.



4 ≈ One

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CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

Well, that's the problem.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Whos is that?

CGI-Quality said:

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

I would think you should be the utmost last person to speak about honesty. Should I refer to when you claimed my GT5 figures were cherry picked and exaggerated, when i've proven they are not.

The evidence is simply other posters posts, any one can take the time to see the math is true.

How about when you said that you only saw 3 people estimate 11 million when I've just quoted 8 (or 9 depending on how you want to play it) . I think you just need to get over your double standards, in the least you shouldn't continually bump a topic to serve crow, especially since you're going to be on a 5 year diet of it. 



snfr said:
CGI-Quality said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

Well, that's the problem.

Moreso when the aura of the thread continues to contradict him. Oh well, by the time these titles actually reach their lifetime totals, they will be higher than most people predicted (save for GT5, which is a tough one to call this early).



                                                                                                                                            

mendozahotness said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Whos is that?

CGI-Quality said:

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

I would think you should be the utmost last person to speak about honesty. Should I refer to when you claimed my GT5 figures were cherry picked and exaggerated, when i've proven they are not.

The evidence is simply other posters posts, any one can take the time to see the math is true.

How about when you said that you only saw 3 people estimate 11 million when I've just quoted 8 (or 9 depending on how you want to play it) . I think you just need to get over your double standards, in the least you shouldn't continually bump a topic to serve crow, especially since you're going to be on a 5 year diet of it. 

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions. 

note: my numbers come from averaging the posters guess, so if they said 9-11 million, i went with 10.

people who predicted 8 million or lower, had terrible guesses, and people who predicted over 11 million had terrible guesses. but guess what there were 11 people who guessed under 8, and only 1 person over 11. so which group had worse preictions the ones under 8 or the ones over 11. do the math



mendozahotness said:
snfr said:

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

Whos is that?

CGI-Quality said:

Wouldn't be so bad if he spoke with honesty, but he doesn't, thus continuing to respond is pointless.

I would think you should be the utmost last person to speak about honesty. Should I refer to when you claimed my GT5 figures were cherry picked and exaggerated, when i've proven they are not.

The evidence is simply other posters posts, any one can take the time to see the math is true.

How about when you said that you only saw 3 people estimate 11 million when I've just quoted 8 (or 9 depending on how you want to play it) . I think you just need to get over your double standards, in the least you shouldn't continually bump a topic to serve crow, especially since you're going to be on a 5 year diet of it. 

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions. 

note: my numbers come from averaging the posters guess, so if they said 9-11 million, i went with 10.

people who predicted 8 million or lower, had terrible guesses, and people who predicted over 11 million had terrible guesses. but guess what there were 11 people who guessed under 8, and only 1 person over 11. so which group had worse preictions the ones under 8 or the ones over 11. do the math