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UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

Forums - Sony Discussion - UPDATE: GT5 passes 10 million - Guess the lifetime sales for Uncharted 2, God Of War III and Gran Tursimo 5

Jay520 said:

 The 10m LT prediction IS right. And if you don't understand that, then there's no reason debating with you.

Again those predictions are for when the games stop selling. That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week. Based on sales trends, we know that those games will reach most of their predictions before the moment they stop selling. It's guaranteed.

At best you have evidence - if this site could be called that considering the absence of any - of what it has sold right now. What you're referring to is hope.

Jay520 said:

As for Reach. It's not a matter of IF it does, because it WILL do 10m. It's guaranteed. We know that by looking at the current sales of the game. We can clearly see what the game will and won't reach. Reach WILL cross 10m in it's Lifetime.

I think you're confusing a guarentee with a likelyhood.

Jay520 said:
That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week.

Shouldn't it be more like when the game stops selling enough to reach the prediction? GT5 sales last week were 10,000 - Are you seriously suggesting i'd need to wait until another 300 weeks or 69 months or 5 and 3/4 years (longer if the trend is downwards which it will be and for more specific predictions) just to serve some crow before it reaches the average prediction figure?

Whats more, in 2017 would I still hear the same excuses?



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okay in order to stop huge inacurracies in one persons posts i have done the math and have the averages of all the sales predictions of each game.

predictions pre Uncharted 2, God of War 3, and Gran Turismo 5 releases

God Of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
               3.374 3.026 8.454
actual sales 3.94                                                                 4.71                                                                                    6.38                                   
difference .566 1.684 -2.074

predictions post Uncharted 2 and God of War release and at GT5 release

God of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
4.530 4.738 9.057

overall predictions

name GOW 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
predicted sales 3.952 3.882 8.714
actual sales 3.94 4.71 6.38
difference in prediction and actual -.012 .828 -2.334
likely sales 4.8 5.4 10

so as you can see the predictions before the games were released were just awful terrible, and pathetic, nothing was remotely close. GOW3 sales were .6 off, and after this year will be more than 1 million off. Uncharted 2 was 1.7 million off, and by the end of this year it will be more than 2 million off. Gran Turismo 5 so far is 2 million under, but by the end of this year it will be about .5 million under. currently the game is tracking ahead of GT4 which sold 10.5 million, so we can only expect similar number from GT5 or a little lower.

Predictions after the games released we a lot higher, as to be expecected, but were still very bad and every single game will surpass the guesses.

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.



osamanobama said:

 

okay in order to stop huge inacurracies in one persons posts i have done the math and have the averages of all the sales predictions of each game.

predictions pre Uncharted 2, God of War 3, and Gran Turismo 5 releases

God Of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
               3.374 3.026 8.454
actual sales 3.94                                                                 4.71                                                                                    6.38                                   
difference .566 1.684 -2.074

predictions post Uncharted 2 and God of War release and at GT5 release

God of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
4.530 4.738 9.057

overall predictions

name GOW 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
predicted sales 3.952 3.882 8.714
actual sales 3.94 4.71 6.38
difference in prediction and actual -.012 .828 -2.334
likely sales 4.8 5.4 10

so as you can see the predictions before the games were released were just awful terrible, and pathetic, nothing was remotely close. GOW3 sales were .6 off, and after this year will be more than 1 million off. Uncharted 2 was 1.7 million off, and by the end of this year it will be more than 2 million off. Gran Turismo 5 so far is 2 million under, but by the end of this year it will be about .5 million under. currently the game is tracking ahead of GT4 which sold 10.5 million, so we can only expect similar number from GT5 or a little lower.

Predictions after the games released we a lot higher, as to be expecected, but were still very bad and every single game will surpass the guesses.

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.

Huge respect for the effort!



                                                                                                                                            

mendozahotness said:
Jay520 said:

 The 10m LT prediction IS right. And if you don't understand that, then there's no reason debating with you.

Again those predictions are for when the games stop selling. That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week. Based on sales trends, we know that those games will reach most of their predictions before the moment they stop selling. It's guaranteed.

At best you have evidence - if this site could be called that considering the absence of any - of what it has sold right now. What you're referring to is hope.

Jay520 said:

As for Reach. It's not a matter of IF it does, because it WILL do 10m. It's guaranteed. We know that by looking at the current sales of the game. We can clearly see what the game will and won't reach. Reach WILL cross 10m in it's Lifetime.

I think you're confusing a guarentee with a likelyhood.

Jay520 said:
That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week.

Shouldn't it be more like when the game stops selling enough to reach the prediction? GT5 sales last week were 10,000 - Are you seriously suggesting i'd need to wait until another 300 weeks or 69 months or 5 and 3/4 years (longer if the trend is downwards which it will be and for more specific predictions) just to serve some crow before it reaches the average prediction figure?

Whats more, in 2017 would I still hear the same excuses?

actually GT5 sold about 15,000 last week, and we are in the middle of summer, sales are slow. in the fall and winter this game will get close to a couple of 100,000 weeks, and will sell close to a 2 million in the last 6 months of this year.



osamanobama said:

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.

Could you please post each posters prediction to back up your figures as I did.

Also why is your totals only based on initial estimates and not post release estimates as well, especially as these both confirm GT5 and GoW are significantly overestimated.

As requested by CGI quality, he doesn't like cherry picking.

osamanobama said:

actually GT5 sold about 15,000 last week, and we are in the middle of summer, sales are slow. in the fall and winter this game will get close to a couple of 100,000 weeks, and will sell close to a 2 million in the last 6 months of this year.

Says a difference of .1 on my lookup. Also is it your supposition that say for example, any game released toward the end of last year that's doing about the same is also likely to add another 2 million in the next 6 months, and another 3-4 million in it's lifetime. So we should say Halo reach will be 10.5 M by years end and 11 - 12.5 M overall.

Fable 3 will end up at 6-7 Million?

Assassins Creed Brotherhood  will go between 6-7 million? Is it typical for games to double their sales a year after launch.

Will this happen again with MW3. 20 million in the first 8 months, then 40 million by mid 2013 for example?



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mendozahotness said:
osamanobama said:

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.

Could you please post each posters prediction to back up your figures as I did.

1) Also why is your totals only based on initial estimates and not post release estimates as well, especially as these both confirm GT5 and GoW are significantly overestimated.

As requested by CGI quality, he doesn't like cherry picking.

osamanobama said:

actually GT5 sold about 15,000 last week, and we are in the middle of summer, sales are slow. in the fall and winter this game will get close to a couple of 100,000 weeks, and will sell close to a 2 million in the last 6 months of this year.

2) Says a difference of .1 on my lookup. Also is it your supposition that say for example, any game released toward the end of last year that's doing about the same is also likely to add another 2 million in the next 6 months, and another 3-4 million in it's lifetime. So we should say Halo reach will be 10.5 M by years end and 11 - 12.5 M overall.

Fable 3 will end up at 6-7 Million?

Assassins Creed Brotherhood  will go between 6-7 million? Is it typical for games to double their sales a year after launch.

Will this happen again with MW3. 20 million in the first 8 months, then 40 million by mid 2013 for example?

1) what... i posted numbers for both pre release and post release. and also averaged both. also when including all of them (even the ones after the games release) God of War is as of today, spot on, but good thing its still going to sell tomorrow, and the next day, and the next and the next, etc. Uncharted is Uncharted is absurdly under, only Gt5 is over. and thats because its been out for 8 months, and hasnt had a second Chistmas.

2) i have no idea what you are saying. GT4 sold over 14,000 last week. i dont dont know what supposition means. but yes GT5 should add another 3-4 lifetime. and even if it doesnt all it needs is 2 million to reach the predictions, and 2.3 for post and pre predictions, something it will come close to doing by the end of this year, and will pass with in a year from now.

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million. just look at any GT game and see its sales patterns



osamanobama said:

 

okay in order to stop huge inacurracies in one persons posts i have done the math and have the averages of all the sales predictions of each game.

predictions pre Uncharted 2, God of War 3, and Gran Turismo 5 releases

God Of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
               3.374 3.026 8.454
actual sales 3.94                                                                 4.71                                                                                    6.38                                   
difference .566 1.684 -2.074

predictions post Uncharted 2 and God of War release and at GT5 release

God of War 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
4.530 4.738 9.057

overall predictions

name GOW 3 Uncharted 2 GT5
predicted sales 3.952 3.882 8.714
actual sales 3.94 4.71 6.38
difference in prediction and actual -.012 .828 -2.334
likely sales 4.8 5.4 10

so as you can see the predictions before the games were released were just awful terrible, and pathetic, nothing was remotely close. GOW3 sales were .6 off, and after this year will be more than 1 million off. Uncharted 2 was 1.7 million off, and by the end of this year it will be more than 2 million off. Gran Turismo 5 so far is 2 million under, but by the end of this year it will be about .5 million under. currently the game is tracking ahead of GT4 which sold 10.5 million, so we can only expect similar number from GT5 or a little lower.

Predictions after the games released w a lot higher, as to be expecected, but were still very bad and every single game will surpass the guesses.

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.



I like this post!

osamanobama said:

1) what... i posted numbers for both pre release and post release. and also averaged both. also when including all of them (even the ones after the games release) God of War is as of today, spot on, but good thing its still going to sell tomorrow, and the next day, and the next and the next, etc. Uncharted is Uncharted is absurdly under, only Gt5 is over. and thats because its been out for 8 months, and hasnt had a second Chistmas.

I would like to review your math, so I would like you to show the sub-totals, totals and workings out. You said you did the averages so you must have added them all up one by one. If you could list them in

1) How many predictions over all were over

2) How Many predictions overall were under

3) How many were within the realms of being correct (this one isn't actually necessary as it makes no difference)

Also a quote for each as evidence would be great. Remember, we are not trying to find out the average figure (i think you missed the point on this one) we  are trying to find out the number of estimates which were overor under the current figures. My estimates figure only applies to one set of people at a time, combining them is only going to steal crow from the plate of those who were wrong.

osamanobama said:

2) i have no idea what you are saying. GT4 sold over 14,000 last week.

So GT4 is near level pegging with GT5?

osamanobama said:

2) i dont dont know what supposition means. but yes GT5 should add another 3-4 lifetime. and even if it doesnt all it needs is 2 million to reach the predictions, and 2.3 for post and pre predictions, something it will come close to doing by the end of this year, and will pass with in a year from now.

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million. just look at any GT game and see its sales patterns

Supposition is an assumption or the act of supposing. If you're saying that if a game is selling 15,000 a week or there abouts, is going to sell 1.7m in the next 6 months and 4 million "for the rest of its life", then we should expect Fable 3, AC:B and a number of other games to hit the 7-8 million life times as they are doing the same. 

osamanobama said:

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million.

Right, so you are saying it is typical for games as popular or even more popular to sell 2.8 million between it's 8th and 24th month of availability. Or for example, CoD:BlOps will sell approx 5.8 million more between now and the end of 2012 as well. 



CGI-Quality said:

You've done nothing but repeat the same ol' song over and over and it makes no sense each time.

It makes perfect sense, you made a prediction which hasn't come true as of of when I type this period. Eat crow until it does.

CGI-Quality said:

I see the argument has shifted from all three games to just GT5, telling me one side is weakening. Bottom line, none of the games in this topic have reached their lifetime totals.

You like to jump to conclusions don't you, it applies to all 3 games. GT5 was just the easiest one to analyse. After all you said it was all cherry picked numbers and exaggerated them, when I have factually proven it's all numbers from the entire thread at whatever period they were posted. The very opposite of cherry picking.

It's hilarious that the other analysis, which is cherry picked is one you like. Don't worry. I will do Uncharted and gow3 for you as well. Perhaps then you will stop lying that there were more under estimators then over estimators.

CGI-Quality said:

 Bottom line, none of the games in this topic have reached their lifetime totals.

I think the bottom line is you like to serve crow to a handful of people who guessed incorrectly, but don't like to eat it when you're wrong. 



Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...



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