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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony is the only company I am 100% sure will make a next gen console

solidpumar on 26 July 2009

dunno001 said:

{0}While I have to say that I agree with all the people facepalming

{1}Shareholders would question why they left, and it would shake things up. As for Nintendo's properties, they're not going to either Sony nor Microsoft.

{2}blue ocean strategy knows what the biggest barrier is on both their competitors' platforms- the controller.

{3}Microsoft is likely to stick around.

{4}looking for things to chop to try to see a return on their investment. I put 98% odds on them being around, if it goes to the shareholders, that drops to 75%.

 

{5}1. I could see the system being put aside and going back to trying to be 3rd party.

{6}3. But if you're saying that the PS3 still can't handle these games, then wouldn't it all be for naught?

{7}4.  flash memory comes down enough in price, my prediction is that Nintendo will go back to a cartridge format. 

{8}but I lean more toward an alternative HD-DVD format, for reasons of cost and as a form of anti-piracy.

{9}2. They can create things as powerful as their competitors, look at the Gamecube. It just doesn't fit their overall strategy.

{10}3. it would split their market, with part of the split leaving Nintendo's fold.

{11}4. Nintendo's actually been taking some risks since the NES days.

{11}5. I've pretty much touched on this one already. The controller is the barrier to entry, and making games still has a high risk potential.

 

Will do bullets points like you did. And dont forget you have an opinion just like I do, because the majority agrees with you, whichI already knew they did, doesnt make you more right. Take a step down from your horse and lets talk withouth being snobs.

{0} Imamaturity. These facelpalm only make my argument stronger. Disgresssing to immaature behaviour is points loss in any debate.

{1} Yes, they would question it, but dont think they would be against it, since the handheld would still be around and again, the potential sales of multiplataform games and the lower risk it is being a 3rd party publishers would convince them if the Nintendo executives wanted. Nintendo executives can make bold choioces because they already made huuge profits to shareholders and a veto from shareholders with executives that had so much sucess wouldnt happen.

Of course Nintendo properties would go to neither sony nor microsoft, who said so? Sony nor MS has no share in nintendo and no one thinks they do.

{3}agree microsoft will likely stick around.Unless we see some threat of google that forces them to make drastic changes we likely will se another xbox. Emphasis on likely. Very likely indeed.

{4} Wanna make a bet sony will stick around for PS4, I give you 5:1 odds, it covers yours 75% you took from your hat.

{5}If sony were to drop the console race, they would leave the gaming business IMO, perhaps just with the online mmo focus. But that isnt happening.

{6}I was talking that they will use 3D for the ps4, the motorstom and gt5 are research tests and to show they how they are developing new technology. The fact is ps3 can NOT do 3d and since they showed 3D games instead of movies, show they doing new tech R&D for ps4, and they havent given up on game hardware tech (console).

(7) flash Cartrige format? flash drivers? Nintendo sure could make dowloadable only if they make another console with buil-in flash drive and small gigabity games, but flash cartrige? And I am the one that doesnt have business sense and get facepalm?

{8} good point on HD-dvd to prevent piracy, have to agree, but they would lose the HD disc movie playback since there is no movie studios that supports hd-dvd, but since they have the digital movie distribution and streaming in place, makes sense.But as for games I think is realistic and I could see happening. But still Sony would of UNDOUBTLY use blu-ray, wich they already have lots of manufaturing which is saved costs(my point).

{9} The outsorce most of the manufaturing and that is why they cant make so much agressive pricing strategy. Something Sony and MS can. The processor and GPU mostly are IBM/intel/nvidia/ati for ALL consoles, but there is advantages to being a hardware company since that most other division can help in manufatuing the other components.

{11} Wouldnt split nothing. I am not talking about discontinuing th wii and going to ps3/xbox. I am talking about not competing in console wars and do multiplat games. Next genration, not this generation. Multiplat means ALL the market is potentially theirs.

{11}Agreed. They take risks. But now the gaming businnes is just as big as movie industry, taking risks have more serious consequences.

{12} Talking about next genration console. Ms and sony already doing other controllers type. I am not talking about wii controller. In the next generation even the nintendo would already have diferent controller if they go 1st party. If they go 3rd party they just need to adpat to their MS/Sony new controllers, that might not even be the wand or natal.

 



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solidpumar on 26 July 2009

I am talking about NEXT generation.

No market share of the actual generation will go to the next. Just ask sony.

New generation is a blank slate.

And stop with the flaming guys... or should I just leave vgchartz because I wont find intelligent discussion here and just facepalm and srugh posts withouth any content?

Assets have meaning, big companies can withstand more bad quarters, diversfiicate and take more risks. And they have bigger levering in manufacturing process, retail reach, consumer support scale, lawyers support.

If you really think what matters is market value in this issue you trully mistaken.



nordlead on 26 July 2009

{0} other people being immature has no bearing on the strength of your argument.

{7} They use flash carts on the DS, how does using flash not make sense? You can reach a much larger market selling physical medium than you can online. Online only has a long way to go for the larger market. Online only can be successful, but it doesn't have the same reach.

{9} All 3 companies outsource their manufacturing to the same exact hardware manufacturer (foxconn). Nintendo started with cheap parts, which tend not to drop in value, while Microsoft and Sony started with expensive parts, which do tend to drop in value.

{1/11/12} Nintendo has already stated, that if they leave the hardware business their software will die with them. Nintendo will take risks until they go out of business, so the size of the market doesn't matter.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
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nordlead on 26 July 2009

@assets point

profit is the ultimate determiner. Yes, assets can help you weather bad quarters, but when you have a bad quarter and you need more money what do you do? Sell assets. Which assets do you sell? The ones that are causing you to lose money. Which assets are causing Sony to lose money? Right now, Erricson and Playstation are two that come to mind.

Now, if Sony had good cash reserves, then they wouldn't need to sell any assets and they could dig into their back pocket and use some of their spare cash.

(note, obviously there are other ways to get money, but just showing that just because you have assets doesn't mean that they won't sell off the gaming devision)

Nintendo has huge cash reserves, along with profitable product line, and no real reason to leave the market, and you peg them as the most likely to leave. What business sense is that?

Do I think Sony or Microsoft will leave the console market? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet my money on it. Will Nintendo stay in the market? Most likely, and I'd bet a lot that they will.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
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Lord Flashheart on 26 July 2009
dunno001 said:

While I have to say that I agree with all the people facepalming, that doesn't really add to discussion, so instead I'm going to post what I think, and indicate what I see as the flaws in your argument.

First, the only company I would put 100% odds on being around next generation is Nintendo. Nintendo has said that they develop systems to release their games on. With the sheer profit the Wii has generated, their exiting the arena after this generation is simply foolish. Shareholders would question why they left, and it would shake things up. As for Nintendo's properties, they're not going to either Sony nor Microsoft. As long as Nintendo has at least 1 system out (and you agreed that they will still be in the portable market), they're going to stick to what they know. And even if they did leave systems entirely, their blue ocean strategy knows what the biggest barrier is on both their competitors' platforms- the controller. Many of the new people Nintendo has picked up can pick up and use a Wiimote because of its similarity to something with much greater market penetration: a remote control. Coupling this with the people on the HD systems that won't touch a Nintendo property for being "too kiddy", they know that they would lose sales. Yes, Nintendo knows there is a risk with new systems. But as long as they generate profit, they're not leaving.

Microsoft is likely to stick around. The past couple of quarters, the 360 has actually been pulling the E&D division upward. However, with the mire of numbers not being clear, the stockholders may see this division still posting continual losses, and want an answer as to why. I do believe that Microsoft can provide an answer to them as to why the 360 should stay around, but if the shareholders try strongarming, the 360 could be in jeopardy. Right now I would say that things are hinging on Natal's success in general- not just on 360, but the PC also. If it flops, I expect to hear about increased pressure on E&D. I'll put Microsoft at a 90% chance of sticking around next gen.

Sony is in the worst position. PS1 and 2 were easy to justify. They were propping the company up in times of weak sales. But now it's very different. Electronics sales are very weak, and now instead of offsetting those losses, the PS3 has contributed heavily toward them, going so far as to have lost the entire profits of the PS2, the most successful console to date saleswise. And the PS3 is not done bleeding yet. With the losses that Sony posted last fiscal year, I'm predicting that stockholders are going to be much more scrutinizing, looking for things to chop to try to see a return on their investment. The losses from SCE could make it a target, especially since it is known that the PS2 and PSP are generating revenue, yet the PS3 eats it all, and leaves it in the red. I can see a couple of other divisions being more likely to receive the axe, such as Sony Ericcson, but I can't rule out the stockholders getting fed up with the losses of the PS3. If the decision is left to the Sony execs, I put 98% odds on them being around, if it goes to the shareholders, that drops to 75%.

Now, I'm going to address some of your points. I'm not saying they're wrong, as this is speclative, but I will disagree with some of them as being reasons. I'll go in bulletpoints-

1. Yes, Sony is a large hardware company, which is what consoles are. But SCE has adopted what many call the razor-&-blade method. Right now, Sony is not selling enough blades to overcome the razor's loss. Meanwhile, they're pouring all this money into the factories (studios) making blades (games), and seeing marginal return. Way back when, Sony actually was a 3rd party company. If, in an attempt to save money, Sony wants to streamline, I could see the system being put aside and going back to trying to be 3rd party. It's unlikely, as I think a streamlining would also result in Sony wanting out entirely, and they would sell off the studios. (For the record, I see Microsoft as being the one to snap some of them up.) Game publishing costs have spiraled out of control, so remaining in that market still bears great risk.

3. Umm... why would you advertise PS3 games and show them off with things not possible on the platform? Yet, Sony's done it before. As you said, Sony's been a large pusher for 3D; this has been true from before the PS3. Part of the reason they sunk so much money into the R&D of the PS3 was to try to make games like the ones they've shown. Sometimes they're successful. But if you're saying that the PS3 still can't handle these games, then wouldn't it all be for naught?

4. Will blu-ray be the standard for gaming? Sure, Sony will still use it for the PS4. And while it's probable that at least one other company will also use it, I don't see it as "undoubtable." If flash memory comes down enough in price, my prediction is that Nintendo will go back to a cartridge format. It's been called overkill in another thread (and I agree that it is), but a 64 GB chip already exists. This is more space than a dual-layer BR, with faster seek times. Smaller games could use smaller chips to conserve on cost. Microsoft will more likely go download-only if the PSPGo is met with success. Otherwise, I could see MS going any way, but I lean more toward an alternative HD-DVD format, for reasons of cost and as a form of anti-piracy.

Now, your Nintendo reasons:

1. Yes, Nintendo does have more software R&D. However, it is also done with their systems in mind. In fact, I'd not be surprised to find out that the software side is what drives the hardware side. We want to do X, but there's no system that lets us. Make one for us! Note how Miyamoto has wanted Mario to be able to ride Yoshi since the NES. It took the SNES to make that happen, and things go from there.

2. They can create things as powerful as their competitors, look at the Gamecube. It just doesn't fit their overall strategy.

3. But... Nintendo already has a devout following for their systems. If Nintendo went 3rd party, it would split their market, with part of the split leaving Nintendo's fold. So I don't think they would sell more copies, if anything, I'll leave it at the same. But, higher development costs for the HD systems, coupled with the lost revenue from not selling systems, means that Nintendo would be making significantly less money.

4. Nintendo's actually been taking some risks since the NES days. But if you're going to say that we should never take risks, then we would never innovate. Nintendo's innovation (and risk) is what led them to where they are today. They know better than to bet the company, so that they are shielded from a mistake (see: Virtual Boy), but they're not going to stop. As long as their software teams come up with new ideas, the hardware will continue.

5. I've pretty much touched on this one already. The controller is the barrier to entry, and making games still has a high risk potential.

(Gah, I didn't intend this to run so long...)

 

Please don't ban me



Official member of the Xbox 360 Squad

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Craan on 26 July 2009

@Lord Flasheart

Thats probably the most intelligent thing I've read on this site all week?



Taz! on 26 July 2009

Sony are definitely going to make a new console, same goes for Ninty. Microsoft will be there too, but they're the ones I see most likely to drop out for various reasons that I can't be bothered explaining because Im on the PS3 browse at the minute. Im 99% sure though, that everyone from this generation will be in the next :]



solidpumar on 26 July 2009

@nordlead

This is what you people arent getting.

I am saying that IF Nintendo leaves isnt because they need. Is because they WANT. I am not saying nintendo is in trouble if doenst leave.

I still think we will be seeinng the 3 ones again next gen. But for me there is irony is saying that Sony will leave when for me is  the "only company I am 100% sure will make a next gen console"

Metaphor to understand:

Is like Nintendo would leave the all-in inpoker table while is winning and before the table goes for BIG blinds. Moving for backjack that has a dealer that sucks and requires less risk to join the game.

nordlead said:
{0} other people being immature has no bearing on the strength of your argument.

{7} They use flash carts on the DS, how does using flash not make sense? You can reach a much larger market selling physical medium than you can online. Online only has a long way to go for the larger market. Online only can be successful, but it doesn't have the same reach.

{9} All 3 companies outsource their manufacturing to the same exact hardware manufacturer (foxconn). Nintendo started with cheap parts, which tend not to drop in value, while Microsoft and Sony started with expensive parts, which do tend to drop in value.

{1/11/12} Nintendo has already stated, that if they leave the hardware business their software will die with them. Nintendo will take risks until they go out of business, so the size of the market doesn't matter.

{0} You said you agreed with facepalm. which makes YOU immature. YOU! And doesn't proves the strengh of my argument, but shows how weak is yours and theirs, or the lack of argument to be exactly.

{7} Big price difference.

ONLINE has WAY biggeer reach than retail. Your claim that retail has bigger reach show how poor business sense you have. Anyone that have this generation console have acess to internet.

Pre-paid cards are already a reality for underages that dont have credit card.

I know that online has a bigger reach because I live in Brazil. where neither the ps3 or wii launched officially and games are 3times as expensive here. I only have consoles, instead of just PC, because I have lways of importing. But for any Brazilian digital distribution offers way more buying power for games, and you can buy immediatly.

Online reach every country, with no shpping costs or retail cost, imediatly.

{1/11/12} Oh , and shareholder don't mind they taking risks until they go out of bussines, but there is a 25% chance the sony shareholders will sack the bigger and influential brand Sony has. Which is bigger than VAIO, phones ericson, camera or even Bravia.

If Nintendo leaves hardware the software WONT die, they would be the bigger and most influential 3rd party. They wouldnt leave in trouble like sega.

Now what were you talking about when you said controller was a problem? You didnt explain in your rebute.

 



ImJustBayuum on 26 July 2009

@solidpumar

I think you lack financial knowledge..



DSLover on 26 July 2009

Nintendo has said many times thay they will stop making games altogether instead of going third party. They have so much money they could afford to fail a couple of generations anyway. Nintendo is the only company that is 100% certain to have a console. The facepalms are deserved and add hilarity to an otherwise utterly pointless thread.