averyblund said:
A couple of quick things. First off Symbian is down to about 43% they have lost almost 10% of their share in the last year, mostly to Apple and RIM (Blackberry). Again they don't have a worldwide presence anymore since they virtually pulled out of the Americas a few years about. No presence in the US or Japan = no serious dev support. Secondly many Nokia's still only run Java applets even some of the lower level "smartphones". I think the problem with the way you are looking at this is that you are looking at units shipped, not whether people actually use the functions of the phone. Let me give you a quote to illustrate my point: -ComScore's report, cited by InformationWeek, said that just 3.8% of mobile subscribers have downloaded a game to their mobile phone, compared to 32.4% of iPhone users. Here is an illustration showing the mobile web browsing marketshare from last month The very reliable Net Applications composed it it does NOT include Touch numbers. To put this into context the iPhone makes about almost .50% of web queries. That is insane considering it is only one device vs. every computer/cell/pda currently on the net.
What I draw from this is that many people buy a Samsung or a Nokia and then never download software or use its advanced features. The iPhone on the other hand seems to be used a lot more to its fullest (gaming, web, ect).
This is why while install base is a decent metric in some cases, it fails miserably here.
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These figures are VERY interesting. If 32.4% of iPhone users have downloaded games, that makes about 5.5 million iPhone gamers. Now, assuming that two thirds of all downloads are games (I've heard that figure some months ago, things may be different now but I'm being conservative), and assuming that iPod Touch users have similar downloading habits, that equals
800 million * 0.66 / ( 0.324 * (17 million + 13 million)) = roughly 54 games per iPhone / iPod Touch, including free games
Now, it could very well be that the iPod Touch is used more for gaming, so to get some rough boundary estimates lets assume that 100% of iPod Touch users have downloaded at least one game. Then we get
800 million * 0.66 / (13 million + 0.324 * 17 million) = roughly 28.5 games per iPhone / iPod Touch.
Just to give you an idea, based on these numbers those who use their iPhone or iPod Touch for gaming have downloaded, on average, between 30 to 50 games to their device. If the share of games is more than two thirds of the total downloads, then the figures are even higher. That is actually a very strong indicator that the platform IS a viable option for game devs, even though the revenues are still a fraction of traditional gaming systems.
On another note, considering the web usage, about a year ago Google reported that iPhones are responsible for 50 times more searches than any other handset. So, that's one more indicator that installed base does not tell the whole truth. At the time of the Google report, iPhone had a worldwide marketshare of 6.5% in smartphones, which means that iPhone users did more Google searches on their phone than all other smart phone users combined.