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Forums - Sales Discussion - iPhone/iTouch sells 30 million in 19 months

averyblund said:
Jo21 said:

applications are standarize though something that run in the symbian 3rd will run on symbian 5 and so on, and nokia been using the same ti omap 2 and freescale chips for a while.

they have it easy compared to windows mobile thousand configurations.

 

 

 

A couple of quick things. First off Symbian is down to about 43% they have lost almost 10% of their share in the last year, mostly to Apple and RIM (Blackberry). Again they don't have a worldwide presence anymore since they virtually pulled out of the Americas a few years about. No presence in the US or Japan = no serious dev support. Secondly many Nokia's still only run Java applets even some of the lower level "smartphones".

I think the problem with the way you are looking at this is that you are looking at units shipped, not whether people actually use the functions of the phone. Let me give you a quote to illustrate my point:

-ComScore's report, cited by InformationWeek, said that just 3.8% of mobile subscribers have downloaded a game to their mobile phone, compared to 32.4% of iPhone users. 

Here is an illustration showing the mobile web browsing marketshare from last month

The very reliable Net Applications composed it it does NOT include Touch numbers. To put this into context the iPhone makes about almost .50% of web queries. That is insane considering it is only one device vs. every computer/cell/pda currently on the net.

 

What I draw from this is that many people buy a Samsung or a Nokia and then never download software or use its advanced features. The iPhone on the other hand seems to be used a lot more to its fullest (gaming, web, ect).

 

This is why while install base is a decent metric in some cases, it fails miserably here.

 

 

 

 

These figures are VERY interesting. If 32.4% of iPhone users have downloaded games, that makes about 5.5 million iPhone gamers. Now, assuming that two thirds of all downloads are games (I've heard that figure some months ago, things may be different now but I'm being conservative), and assuming that iPod Touch users have similar downloading habits, that equals

800 million * 0.66 / ( 0.324 * (17 million + 13 million)) =  roughly 54 games per iPhone / iPod Touch, including free games

Now, it could very well be that the iPod Touch is used more for gaming, so to get some rough boundary estimates lets assume that 100% of iPod Touch users have downloaded at least one game. Then we get

800 million * 0.66 / (13 million + 0.324 * 17 million) = roughly 28.5 games per iPhone / iPod Touch.

Just to give you an idea, based on these numbers those who use their iPhone or iPod Touch for gaming have downloaded, on average, between 30 to 50 games to their device. If the share of games is more than two thirds of the total downloads, then the figures are even higher. That is actually a very strong indicator that the platform IS a viable option for game devs, even though the revenues are still a fraction of traditional gaming systems.

On another note, considering the web usage, about a year ago Google reported that iPhones are responsible for 50 times more searches than any other handset. So, that's one more indicator that installed base does not tell the whole truth. At the time of the Google report, iPhone had a worldwide marketshare of 6.5% in smartphones, which means that iPhone users did more Google searches on their phone than all other smart phone users combined.



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symbian it's 47% for the last quarter, 52% for the year (2008)

http://blog.symbian.org/2009/03/13/symbian-is-still-top-of-the-pops/

but the whole market it's down... nokia last year sold alone almost 80 million smartphones.

it sold 72 million last year.

and thats not true anymore nokia launched a app store, and the support for symbian was always big do it user base, but never had a central site to get the apps rather many third parties sites.

u can program in open c, java, python for symbian they are not AJAX app like the iphone also they support ajax apps and flash in their browser.

which is based on the same webkit safari .

also symbian it's very complete basic functions wise, nokia make great job that you don't require many apps.

i use windows live messenger , emtube and google maps the rest its basic for symbian.

things like stereo bluetooth, copy paste, flash video, video recording, that the iphone lacks.



Jo21 said:

symbian it's 47% for the last quarter, 52% for the year (2008)

http://blog.symbian.org/2009/03/13/symbian-is-still-top-of-the-pops/

but the whole market it's down... nokia last year sold alone almost 80 million smartphones.

it sold 72 million last year.

and thats not true anymore nokia launched a app store, and the support for symbian was always big do it user base, but never had a central site to get the apps rather many third parties sites.

u can program in open c, java, python for symbian they are not AJAX app like the iphone also they support ajax apps and flash in their browser.

which is based on the same webkit safari .

also symbian it's very complete basic functions wise, nokia make great job that you don't require many apps.

i use windows live messenger , emtube and google maps the rest its basic for symbian.

things like stereo bluetooth, copy paste, flash video, video recording, that the iphone lacks.

Nobody is denying the market share of the Symbian phones, but that market share has not translated into 3rd party software sales very well. In fact, a recent report suggested that on average all smart phone users download 5 apps, which would mean 400 million downloads for the 80 million Nokia smartphones. In 8 months, Apple doubled that, with an installed base that's less than a quarter. Now, what becomes of Nokia Download Store is yet to be seen, but it is the right thing to do. We've seen that when you make things easy for the user, they will buy software.

I don't know where you get the impression that iPhone apps are AJAX apps, but none of the apps in AppStore are. They are all native apps compiled for and run in the iPhone. The smart thing about the iPhone SDK is that it uses gcc for compiling, so you can program in any language the gcc can compile, although the Apple-provided frameworks and API's are either done in Objective-C or C. You can even mix C, Objective-C and C++ in the same file if you so wish. The iPhone web apps are AJAX apps, but so are most other sensible web apps anyway.

And while it's true that the iPhone lacks certain basic functions, the iPhone OS 3.0 update will fix many things. It will include stereo bluetooth and copy/paste for certain, video recording might be there but since it wasn't mentioned in the Apple event, I think it's unlikely. Flash is not there, and for some that is a deal breaker. Personally I wouldn't want to use Flash on my iPhone, the damn thing is slow even on my laptop so it would be absolute torture on the phone for me.



Jo21 said:

u can program in open c, java, python for symbian they are not AJAX app like the iphone also they support ajax apps and flash in their browser.

which is based on the same webkit safari .

also symbian it's very complete basic functions wise, nokia make great job that you don't require many apps.

i use windows live messenger , emtube and google maps the rest its basic for symbian.

things like stereo bluetooth, copy paste, flash video, video recording, that the iphone lacks.

 

At first I thought you were just a little mistaken now I know you are just uninformed on the iPhone (no offense). 

 

-First off NO apps in the AppStore are ajax- where did you get that idea? They are objective-c which IMHO is one of the best languages out there.

-Secondly the iPhone has Google Maps (better implementation w/ streetview), not sure what "emtube" is but if that is Youtube, ditto. As for Live Messenger never met a person who used it who didn't have AIM, Y!, or ICQ- either way the iPhone has dozens of messengers that work with Live.

-Thirdly Stereo BT is coming this summer, with cut and paste, video is an omission but there are 3 solid apps which allow it (jailbroken) and one allows Youtube upload. As for Flash- sorry Flash Mobile doesn't count, anybody who has ever used it knows that. That is like saying that Java ME is the same as desktop Java- not a chance. And anybody who has ever worked on Symbian knows what a nightmare the compiler is and how slow the resulting code is. Check the N95 version of Monkey Ball vs. the iPhone. On similar HW the iPhone almost matches the PSP, while the N95 version is 2D and looks SNES quality. Let me share the quote I forgot in my last post:

 "Games sold via the App Store are the most profitable in terms of any of the formats we work on," said Simon Jeffery, the US president of Sega. As you may have heard, one of Sega's games, Super Monkey Ball, has sold more than 500,000 copies.

-Fourthly my point about penetration that you ignored- is frankly one of the main points of my argument. Nokia doesn't exist in Japan, admittedly a difficult market for western companies (though Apple has done well enough), but the big issue is the US. In the late 90/2000's nokia had a massive presence in America. Now they offer less than 3 new models none of which are high-end. Nokia hasn't even bothered to release most of their smartphones in the US at all. Quick question- where does most SW development occur (especially games)? The US and Japan. See what I'm getting at?

Lastly, while we only have limited information you can try and argue that Symbian users are just as likely to use apps/web as others but what we have simply disproves it. Those (web) marketshare numbers are drawn from more than ten thousand sites across the world. The survey is done by a reputable company, and yet Symbian is in a dead heat with Android! The Android that is only availible on one phone (G1) launched only months ago. If that doesn't show you that Symbian users not browsing I don't know how I could convince you.

 

Listen Nokia makes some good HW, more (physically) solid than anything I have seen out of Japan or the US. But they are leagues behind in SW, with no signs of catching up. They are a company with almost zero knowledge of SW up against comppanies who have done that for years. Looking at their bloated slow SDK or their OS GUI it is pretty hard to think they will compete in SW department against Apple, Google, or Palm all of who seem to get it. Funny that none of them were even in the biz 3 years ago.

 

If 47% is accurate, there seems to be mixes number out there- that is still a massive fall from Q4-07 where Symbian was at 62.3%. 15% share loss in a year in any market is a sign that something is very wrong with the platform. Even WinMo didn't see that and I think anybody who works in the industry would agree that is the dog of the bunch.

 

Edit: Plaupius beat me to some of this.



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Plaupius said:
Jo21 said:

symbian it's 47% for the last quarter, 52% for the year (2008)

http://blog.symbian.org/2009/03/13/symbian-is-still-top-of-the-pops/

but the whole market it's down... nokia last year sold alone almost 80 million smartphones.

it sold 72 million last year.

and thats not true anymore nokia launched a app store, and the support for symbian was always big do it user base, but never had a central site to get the apps rather many third parties sites.

u can program in open c, java, python for symbian they are not AJAX app like the iphone also they support ajax apps and flash in their browser.

which is based on the same webkit safari .

also symbian it's very complete basic functions wise, nokia make great job that you don't require many apps.

i use windows live messenger , emtube and google maps the rest its basic for symbian.

things like stereo bluetooth, copy paste, flash video, video recording, that the iphone lacks.

Nobody is denying the market share of the Symbian phones, but that market share has not translated into 3rd party software sales very well. In fact, a recent report suggested that on average all smart phone users download 5 apps, which would mean 400 million downloads for the 80 million Nokia smartphones. In 8 months, Apple doubled that, with an installed base that's less than a quarter. Now, what becomes of Nokia Download Store is yet to be seen, but it is the right thing to do. We've seen that when you make things easy for the user, they will buy software.

I don't know where you get the impression that iPhone apps are AJAX apps, but none of the apps in AppStore are. They are all native apps compiled for and run in the iPhone. The smart thing about the iPhone SDK is that it uses gcc for compiling, so you can program in any language the gcc can compile, although the Apple-provided frameworks and API's are either done in Objective-C or C. You can even mix C, Objective-C and C++ in the same file if you so wish. The iPhone web apps are AJAX apps, but so are most other sensible web apps anyway.

And while it's true that the iPhone lacks certain basic functions, the iPhone OS 3.0 update will fix many things. It will include stereo bluetooth and copy/paste for certain, video recording might be there but since it wasn't mentioned in the Apple event, I think it's unlikely. Flash is not there, and for some that is a deal breaker. Personally I wouldn't want to use Flash on my iPhone, the damn thing is slow even on my laptop so it would be absolute torture on the phone for me.

i didn't say the are but they mainly were when it came out and there is still  many 2g iphone users out there, also i read about 3.0 updates,  its good it having features symbian had 2004 after 2 years in the market but still doens't have video recording.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/17/apple-previews-iphone-os-3-0/

nokia hasn't sold 80 million smartphones only it should be way over 200 million now. it sold 72 million in 2008  most have a 330mhz - 378mhz processor, powerVR GPU and have been selling smartphones since 2004.

while the iphone may be a good place for developers symbian and windows mobile, are not bad either, as a computer science student i found the symbian foundation SDK very standard and easy to use. and the app store was already announced and world mobile congress.

it flash lite 3 it's fast  and it plays any flash video site so don't worry, you are not forced to use it. a thing like that its useful and its good thing to have even if you don't want to use it.

it ran nice in my 330mhz n82 and its powervr chip.



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GO Apple!!!!



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Waiting On GT7!!!

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Jo21 said:
Plaupius said:

Nobody is denying the market share of the Symbian phones, but that market share has not translated into 3rd party software sales very well. In fact, a recent report suggested that on average all smart phone users download 5 apps, which would mean 400 million downloads for the 80 million Nokia smartphones. In 8 months, Apple doubled that, with an installed base that's less than a quarter. Now, what becomes of Nokia Download Store is yet to be seen, but it is the right thing to do. We've seen that when you make things easy for the user, they will buy software.

I don't know where you get the impression that iPhone apps are AJAX apps, but none of the apps in AppStore are. They are all native apps compiled for and run in the iPhone. The smart thing about the iPhone SDK is that it uses gcc for compiling, so you can program in any language the gcc can compile, although the Apple-provided frameworks and API's are either done in Objective-C or C. You can even mix C, Objective-C and C++ in the same file if you so wish. The iPhone web apps are AJAX apps, but so are most other sensible web apps anyway.

And while it's true that the iPhone lacks certain basic functions, the iPhone OS 3.0 update will fix many things. It will include stereo bluetooth and copy/paste for certain, video recording might be there but since it wasn't mentioned in the Apple event, I think it's unlikely. Flash is not there, and for some that is a deal breaker. Personally I wouldn't want to use Flash on my iPhone, the damn thing is slow even on my laptop so it would be absolute torture on the phone for me.

i didn't say the are but they mainly were when it came out and there is still  many 2g iphone users out there, also i read about 3.0 updates,  its good it having features symbian had 2004 after 2 years in the market but still doens't have video recording.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/17/apple-previews-iphone-os-3-0/

nokia hasn't sold 80 million smartphones only it should be way over 200 million now. it sold 72 million in 2008  most have a 330mhz - 378mhz processor, powerVR GPU and have been selling smartphones since 2004.

while the iphone may be a good place for developers symbian and windows mobile, are not bad either, as a computer science student i found the symbian foundation SDK very standard and easy to use. and the app store was already announced and world mobile congress.

it flash lite 3 it's fast  and it plays any flash video site so don't worry, you are not forced to use it. a thing like that its useful and its good thing to have even if you don't want to use it.

it ran nice in my 330mhz n82 and its powervr chip.

Up 'till the launch of iPhone 3G, I believe some 6 million iPhone 2G's were sold. Those are still capable of running the 3.0 version of the OS, they just don't have GPS, 3G network and apparently the bluetooth chip is different so there are some features of the 3.0 that won't work with the 2G models. But apart from those, the 2G iPhones run the apps just the same as 3G iPhones. That is what I mean with platform uniformity. Also, thanks to the connectivity with iTunes, most people will have the latest version of the OS and the latest versions of all the apps they've installed.

And I know very well how long Nokia has been in the smartphone business, and back in the day the Communicator was a really revolutionary product. But comparing last year, which is what we have to do to compare software sales, tells a story of Apple dominating the software sales. There is no way around that, just as there is no way around that Symbian phones form the biggest portion of the smartphones.

I can't really comment on the Symbian side of things from personal experience, I've just heard people complain about it. Have you tried the iPhone SDK? You can get it for free and run your apps in the simulator. One dev I've been in contact with said that making an app took him about a month for Symbian while making the same app for the iPhone took one weekend, including the time to install the SDK and learning the system. In addition to that, he's actually made a pretty decent amount of money from his app via the AppStore.



Plaupius said:
Jo21 said:
Plaupius said:

Nobody is denying the market share of the Symbian phones, but that market share has not translated into 3rd party software sales very well. In fact, a recent report suggested that on average all smart phone users download 5 apps, which would mean 400 million downloads for the 80 million Nokia smartphones. In 8 months, Apple doubled that, with an installed base that's less than a quarter. Now, what becomes of Nokia Download Store is yet to be seen, but it is the right thing to do. We've seen that when you make things easy for the user, they will buy software.

I don't know where you get the impression that iPhone apps are AJAX apps, but none of the apps in AppStore are. They are all native apps compiled for and run in the iPhone. The smart thing about the iPhone SDK is that it uses gcc for compiling, so you can program in any language the gcc can compile, although the Apple-provided frameworks and API's are either done in Objective-C or C. You can even mix C, Objective-C and C++ in the same file if you so wish. The iPhone web apps are AJAX apps, but so are most other sensible web apps anyway.

And while it's true that the iPhone lacks certain basic functions, the iPhone OS 3.0 update will fix many things. It will include stereo bluetooth and copy/paste for certain, video recording might be there but since it wasn't mentioned in the Apple event, I think it's unlikely. Flash is not there, and for some that is a deal breaker. Personally I wouldn't want to use Flash on my iPhone, the damn thing is slow even on my laptop so it would be absolute torture on the phone for me.

i didn't say the are but they mainly were when it came out and there is still  many 2g iphone users out there, also i read about 3.0 updates,  its good it having features symbian had 2004 after 2 years in the market but still doens't have video recording.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/17/apple-previews-iphone-os-3-0/

nokia hasn't sold 80 million smartphones only it should be way over 200 million now. it sold 72 million in 2008  most have a 330mhz - 378mhz processor, powerVR GPU and have been selling smartphones since 2004.

while the iphone may be a good place for developers symbian and windows mobile, are not bad either, as a computer science student i found the symbian foundation SDK very standard and easy to use. and the app store was already announced and world mobile congress.

it flash lite 3 it's fast  and it plays any flash video site so don't worry, you are not forced to use it. a thing like that its useful and its good thing to have even if you don't want to use it.

it ran nice in my 330mhz n82 and its powervr chip.

Up 'till the launch of iPhone 3G, I believe some 6 million iPhone 2G's were sold. Those are still capable of running the 3.0 version of the OS, they just don't have GPS, 3G network and apparently the bluetooth chip is different so there are some features of the 3.0 that won't work with the 2G models. But apart from those, the 2G iPhones run the apps just the same as 3G iPhones. That is what I mean with platform uniformity. Also, thanks to the connectivity with iTunes, most people will have the latest version of the OS and the latest versions of all the apps they've installed.

And I know very well how long Nokia has been in the smartphone business, and back in the day the Communicator was a really revolutionary product. But comparing last year, which is what we have to do to compare software sales, tells a story of Apple dominating the software sales. There is no way around that, just as there is no way around that Symbian phones form the biggest portion of the smartphones.

I can't really comment on the Symbian side of things from personal experience, I've just heard people complain about it. Have you tried the iPhone SDK? You can get it for free and run your apps in the simulator. One dev I've been in contact with said that making an app took him about a month for Symbian while making the same app for the iPhone took one weekend, including the time to install the SDK and learning the system. In addition to that, he's actually made a pretty decent amount of money from his app via the AppStore.

 

but that was mainly because symbian apps were not centralize into a single size many people got it apps from different sites (no way to track down downloads and sales),  and symbian come with great things  built in that didn't require third party apps, or only freeware.

but then again a apps store + bigger market sounds like a better deal.



Jo21 said:
Bitmap Frogs said:

Not exactly. There's no killzone 2 for ps1, but whatever game is made now works on both iPhones and the iPod Touch.

And yeah, unified hardware has made this possible. I've heard symbian developers bitch for years at Nokia's hardware diversity.

applications are standarize though something that run in the symbian 3rd will run on symbian 5 and so on, and nokia been using the same ti omap 2 and freescale chips for a while.

they have it easy compared to windows mobile thousand configurations.

 

 

Not all ti omap2 are born equal, the amount of ram wildly swings, not to mention e90 requires special tweaks, etc...

They might have it easier compared to windows mobile, but both the iPhone and the iPod Touch are the same machine - sans mobile radio, of course.

 





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

My nephew has a PSP and DS. When I am with my brother and go to his house he is hardly through the door before the kid his asking for his iphone to play games on.

I never gave it much thought but now I am wondering why that is. Are the games on iphone/ipod touch that great or does he just have a poor selecting of games on his handhelds?

I have also noticed recently that pretty much every brand of TV/stereo now have models with the ipod dock builtin.