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Locked: Prediction: PS3 will sell 100 mln. by the end of 2012

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS3 will sell 100 mln. by the end of 2012

nojustno said:
Good job ruining your credibility

What credibility?



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MikeB said:

 anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales. I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Of course there are endless yet unknown factors. But I certainly expect the PS3 to go well beyond 100 million for the long run.

I can't believe you actually believe this...I'm not going to actually laugh this off, because I'm not pretending to have cosmic clairvoyant powers nor do I have access to a crystal ball but your post sounds like the 'miss cleo' of psychic predictions. 

You think that the 360 will cap lifetime sales at 46.67 million and the PS3 to pretty much sell 100 million more?? This year (so far) it's sold about 10.6 million, so what you're saying is that it'll only be commercially available for another 2 more years or that sales will drop significantly...and your reasoning to support this is some as of yet untapped hidden power of the PS3 and HDTV adoption rates?

If Blu-ray ends up being such a massive drawcard why, oh why would Microsoft just sit there idle, dormant...no extraction of digit and let their sales be eclipsed by such a massive margin without adding Blu-ray to the 360? I've said this before as well, the Xbox had higher gains over the PS2 last gen than PS3 over 360 - if the technical specifications/graphical gains weren't enough for people to pick it over the PS2 in droves then what makes you think they will now for the PS3?



The PS3 will always be in strong competition with the X360. 3rd party developers will not be too enthusiastic in developing exclusive games for the PS3. Most of them will go multi which is a reasonable economical decision.
With all those multi titles PS3 and X360 are very similar products. Price matters when products are that similar. MS will be able to offer a cheaper X360 and that will always be a big advantage.

Sure, Sony can still try to attack Nintendo in the expanded market. I doubt Sony will be successful, but maybe thats's worth a try and maybe in 2015 the PS3 will be able to sell 80-90m units.



Esmoreit,

Seriously mate... almost every major publisher who backs the PS3 also backs the wii, and then some. Hell, Nintendo alone edges out Sony when it comes to publishing in terms of quality (oh yeah I went there) and sales. Then throw in EA, Ubisoft, Acti/Blizz, Konami, Capcom, SE, and your pretty much done for.
1) PS360 3rd party support >>> Wii support.
2) PS3 get MORE GOOD games from 1st+2nd Party, then Wii+x360.
All I see is hardcore games.
HOW THAT stopped PS2 from selling 140 mln. ???
This is strange coming from the mouth of a PS3 fan. Isn't power always what sets the PS3 apart from the X360? POwer is, according to an endless amount of threads what makes the games awesome.
PS3 has POWER and GAMES, which USE that POWER. PC and x360 lack of that.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

This thread is a train wreck. And I like it.



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CrazzyMan said:
Esmoreit,
Seriously mate... almost every major publisher who backs the PS3 also backs the wii, and then some. Hell, Nintendo alone edges out Sony when it comes to publishing in terms of quality (oh yeah I went there) and sales. Then throw in EA, Ubisoft, Acti/Blizz, Konami, Capcom, SE, and your pretty much done for.
1) PS360 3rd party support >>> Wii support.
2) PS3 get MORE GOOD games from 1st+2nd Party, then Wii+x360.
All I see is hardcore games.
HOW THAT stopped PS2 from selling 140 mln. ???
This is strange coming from the mouth of a PS3 fan. Isn't power always what sets the PS3 apart from the X360? POwer is, according to an endless amount of threads what makes the games awesome.
PS3 has POWER and GAMES, which USE that POWER. PC and x360 lack of that.

 

1: On support - Please give me some dev's names that do not support the wii, their ROI over the last three years and their revenue and I might look into this. Like I said, just throwing basic claims on the internet is pretty stupid. I mean, I could claim that right now one of my female collegues is below my desk doing nasty things. No way for you to check it unless I make pictures

2: See 1.

3: On hardcore - The PS2 had a good mix of value-for-money with populair titles in the bag like buzz and singstar. These are hardly the killer-apps what they where and everything that currently is, is either multi-plat or on nintendo.
What I do see is it's current strategy stopping the PS3 at roughly 55 million end of life.

4: Saying that a PC lacks power makes you lose this argument by default. If what you are saying is true, NASA would use frigging waterpressure to steer spaceships, in stead of computers.
And I have not yet read anywhere that Nasa has launched a shuttle with the help of a PS3.



The Doctor will see you now  Promoting Lesbianism -->

                              

Holy crap! The PS3 has sold another million in the last hour. I may be wrong after all. I will check in on the sales and on this thread later. I'm prepared to cook up that crow and eat it.



Proud member of the SONIC SUPPORT SQUAD

Tag "Sorry man. Someone pissed in my Wheaties."

"There are like ten games a year that sell over a million units."  High Voltage CEO -  Eric Nofsinger

Esmoreit said:
CrazzyMan said:
Esmoreit,
Seriously mate... almost every major publisher who backs the PS3 also backs the wii, and then some. Hell, Nintendo alone edges out Sony when it comes to publishing in terms of quality (oh yeah I went there) and sales. Then throw in EA, Ubisoft, Acti/Blizz, Konami, Capcom, SE, and your pretty much done for.
1) PS360 3rd party support >>> Wii support.
2) PS3 get MORE GOOD games from 1st+2nd Party, then Wii+x360.
All I see is hardcore games.
HOW THAT stopped PS2 from selling 140 mln. ???
This is strange coming from the mouth of a PS3 fan. Isn't power always what sets the PS3 apart from the X360? POwer is, according to an endless amount of threads what makes the games awesome.
PS3 has POWER and GAMES, which USE that POWER. PC and x360 lack of that.

 

1: On support - Please give me some dev's names that do not support the wii, their ROI over the last three years and their revenue and I might look into this. Like I said, just throwing basic claims on the internet is pretty stupid. I mean, I could claim that right now one of my female collegues is below my desk doing nasty things. No way for you to check it unless I make pictures

2: See 1.

3: On hardcore - The PS2 had a good mix of value-for-money with populair titles in the bag like buzz and singstar. These are hardly the killer-apps what they where and everything that currently is, is either multi-plat or on nintendo.
What I do see is it's current strategy stopping the PS3 at roughly 55 million end of life.

4: Saying that a PC lacks power makes you lose this argument by default. If what you are saying is true, NASA would use frigging waterpressure to steer spaceships, in stead of computers.
And I have not yet read anywhere that Nasa has launched a shuttle with the help of a PS3.

Oh, please! Once again, the PS3 gets blamed for the laziness of third party developers.



1: On support - Please give me some dev's names that do not support the wii
Current:

Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Grand Theft Auto IV
Assassin's Creed
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas
Bioshock
Lost Planet: Extreme Condition
Fallout 3
Devil May Cry 4
Soul Calibur IV
Saints Row 2
Burnout Paradise
Battlefield: Bad Company
Kane & Lynch: Dead Men
The Orange Box
DiRT
Army of Two
Mercenaries 2: World in Flames
Far Cry 2
Condemned 2: Bloodshot
Dead Space
GRID
Dark Sector
The Darkness
Sid Meier's Civilization Revolution
Unreal Tournament III
Midnight Club: Los Angeles
Pure
Armored Core 4
Stranglehold
The Last Remnant
Eternal Sonata
Mirror's Edge
The Club
Tom Clancy's EndWar
Virtua Fighter 5
Prince of Persia

And upcoming:

Resident Evil 5
Street Fighter 4
Bayonetta
Tekken 6
Final Fantasy XIII
Chronicles or Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena
The Witcher: Rise of the White Wolf
F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin
Afro Samurai
Deus Ex 3
Sacred 2: Fallen Angel

Where are these 3rd party games on Wii??? And these are only PS360 multiplatform games.
3: On hardcore - The PS2 had a good mix of value-for-money with populair titles
And PS3 is NOT ?
What I do see is it's current strategy stopping the PS3 at roughly 55 million end of life.
HATER.
4: Saying that a PC lacks power makes
PS3 has POWER and GAMES, which USE that POWER.
PC has only Crysis.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

@CrazzyMan: Do you know the difference between games and developers?