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The OFFICIAL May NPD Prediction Thread

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once thing is for sure that PS3 isn't going to outsell GBA by 25,000 all the sudden



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Wait Wait Wait a lil bit, the sales on the ps3 are wrong in nexgenwars and vgchartz, I may only be 14 but according to the offical ps3 myspace blog the ps3 has sols 5.5 million consoles worl wide so far.



 

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leo-j said:
Wait Wait Wait a lil bit, the sales on the ps3 are wrong in nexgenwars and vgchartz, I may only be 14 but according to the offical ps3 myspace blog the ps3 has sols 5.5 million consoles worl wide so far.

You are correct in that they have shipped 5.5 million consoles worldwide. Check this link to see hardware shipments: http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php

VGChartz keeps track of consoles sold by retail to consumers, which is why the number is lower.



leo-j said:
Wait Wait Wait a lil bit, the sales on the ps3 are wrong in nexgenwars and vgchartz, I may only be 14 but according to the offical ps3 myspace blog the ps3 has sols 5.5 million consoles worl wide so far.

 They've shipped 5.5 million consoles around the world genius.  It's on their financial report for last quarter.  That has nothing to do with what's actually been sold, which is what this site covers.  Unless every single store in the world is sold out of consoles, those 5.5 aren't even close to being sold yet.  They're just overshipping like microsoft did.  Microsoft has shipped over 11 mill consoles and this site doesn't have that number either.  



Completed XBLA: 16 / 32
Completed Retail: 17 / 64
GS Completion %: 82.63%
 

It feels like it's to be expected... however when will we start to see changes? It's been pretty consistant all year month to month... are the big game releases going to make that much of a difference to PS3?? I don't know... 360 hardware doesn't jump around when new software comes out, and I'm just convinced about PS3.

It's quite concerning, but when more games start coming the numbers should go up... 2 months without ANY games released is a farce and no wonder the sales are so low.

Can't wait for Thursday.



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How close does everyone think NPD US and NPD Canada combined will be to Vgcharts?

I think of it like this..

My Mom and my Dad theoretically know me equally well.  If you asked my Mom how many friends I have, she would give an answer similar to my Dad.  NPD is like the closer parent, more worried about trends, has more coverage...but the other parent is no slouch either.

Basically, if I have 8 friends, Mom might say 7, and Dad might say 9.  In reality, if I have 8 friends then they both know me pretty well.

Vgcharts I think is going to end up as the second parent, meaning that it will essentially attain NPD's level of trust in time, even though figures will never match...At the moment, I think to the outside world Vgcharts is still seen as the wacko redheaded uncle.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Wow. Deep.



I think VGC and the NPD numbers will be fairly close. Nothing spot on, or near spot on... but not far off either. I predict:

DS:
America: 450k
Canada: 39k

Wii:
America: 400k
Canada: 40k

PS2:
America: 250k
Canada: 17k

360:
America: 220k
Canada: 15k

PSP:
America: 170k
Canada: 11k

PS3:
America: 70k
Canada: 6k



Dolla Dolla said:
leo-j said:
Wait Wait Wait a lil bit, the sales on the ps3 are wrong in nexgenwars and vgchartz, I may only be 14 but according to the offical ps3 myspace blog the ps3 has sols 5.5 million consoles worl wide so far.

You are correct in that they have shipped 5.5 million consoles worldwide. Check this link to see hardware shipments: http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php

VGChartz keeps track of consoles sold by retail to consumers, which is why the number is lower.

that shipped basically means "shipped to warehouses". They only sold 3.8 million to retailers.

 



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Numbers look reasonable. I think:

 - PS2 figures will be lower (closer to 200k)

 - Wii figures will be lower (closer to 375k)

 - PS3 figures will be lower (closer to 80k)

Not sure about 360 figures, 225k might be about right - in the 200k-250k region anyway.



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