Quantcast
The OFFICIAL May NPD Prediction Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The OFFICIAL May NPD Prediction Thread

Whatever agency you use, NPD, VgCharts for Americas, M-Create, Famitsu for Japan, or Chart-Track for Europe, Wii is outselling 360 everywhere - no exception as far as I know - for all of 2007.

Worldwide, according to VgCharts, in 2007 Wii is outselling 360 at a rate of 125,000/week.  NPD data was within 5% for VgCharts Wii data, while VGcharts overestimated 360 by over 30%...

That means Wii is probably at 8.13 instead of 8.17 through Jun 10, while 360 is probably at 9.94 instead of 10.00 through June 10.

9.94-8.13= Wii's position behind 360 worldwide = 1.81 million

1.81 million = 125,000x, where x = weeks

Wii catches 360 in 14.48 weeks from June 10 at that rate.  Even with GTA, Halo 3, etc, 360 will need to sell 500k units more per month than Wii just to avoid being outsold by Wii at current rates.

I don't know where you get two years from.  360 had a 12 month lead over Wii, which amounted to, at most, 7 million units, now that lead is down to under 2 million units.

Remember too that NPD data is only through June 2.  Two weeks have gone by in real time, so Wii is more like 1.6 million behind 360 as of this very moment.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Around the Network

Vbdevpro ,the Wii actually puts a monthly difference of at least 190 000 consoles in Japan ,180 000 in North America and nearly 160 000 in Europe .So ,each month it reduces the X360 lead by 530 000 units .That 2 million lead of the X360 can endure some 4 months .And the decline of X360 hardware in all 2007 doesnt allow to be overly optimistic .



I found the rest of the top 25 software...

11 WII SUPER PAPER MARIO Nintendo
12 360 CRACKDOWN Microsoft
13 PS3 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
14 WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS Nintendo
15 WII SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
16 360 SHADOWRUN Microsoft
17 PS3 SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
18 PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
19 360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 Take 2 Interactive
20 360 GEARS OF WAR Microsoft
21 NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS Nintendo
22 NDS SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
23 360 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Disney
24 PS2 GOD OF W AR II Sony
25 360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS Ubi Soft



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Suprising bevy of 360 games in there - Very suprising that Gears is beating Rainbow Six Vegas on 360.

Other than that, the numbers nearly mimic the VGChartz numbers.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Activision, Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony all share an equal number of titles in the bottom 11-25 range., and Nintendo holds the highest total. Guess vbdevpro was wrong there as well.



Around the Network

(From wii.ign.com)

Here are the top 10 best-selling Wii games for May 2007:


  1. Mario Party 8
  2. Wii Play
  3. Super Paper Mario
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
  5. Spider-Man 3
  6. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07
  7. Warioware: Smooth Moves
  8. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
  9. Shrek the Third
  10. Cooking Mama: Cook Off

Of these 10 titles, Wii Play is the only original title that isn't a sequel or based on an existing property.

The overall top 20 best-selling games across all platforms in May 2007 are:

  1. Mario Party 8 (WII) Nintendo
  2. Spider-Man 3 (PS2) Activision
  3. Wii Play (WII) Nintendo
  4. Forza Motorsport 2 (X360) Microsoft
  5. Guitar Hero 2 (X360) Red Octane/Activision
  6. Spider-Man 3 (X360) Activision
  7. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars (X360) Electronic Arts
  8. Guitar Hero 2 (PS2) Red Octane/Activision
  9. Super Paper Mario (WII) Nintendo
  10. Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess (WII) Nintendo
  11. Crackdown (X360) Microsoft
  12. Spider-Man 3 (WII) Activision
  13. MLB '07: The Show (PS3) Sony
  14. MLB '07: The Show (PS2) Sony
  15. Everyone Game Bundle (PS2) Multiple Manufacturers
  16. Shadowrun (X360) Microsoft
  17. Shrek The Third (PS2) Activision
  18. Spider-Man 3 (PS3) Activision
  19. God Of War II (PS2) Sony
  20. .hack GU Vol. 2 Reminisce (PS2) Namco Bandai


It was a great month for Activision with six titles in the top 20. Electronic Arts, the number one game publisher in the world, only had one title with Command & Conquer 3.

You may be wondering what this Everyone Game Bundle is for the PS2. In fact, we are wondering that, as well. The bundle doesn't seem to exist on the internet, but gamers still bought over 60,000 copies of the software. Are any of you readers one of these 60,000?"

(note: this apparently only includes console titles, hence the list is different from lists above..)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Doesn't look like the front page numbers have been adjusted yet for the NPD variance



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)