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The OFFICIAL May NPD Prediction Thread

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Let the predicting begin! 

Pachter:

Entertainment Software: May 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 16% Sales Growth

o We expect May sales of $333 million (up 16% compared to May 2006’s $286 million). We expect next generation software sales of $228 million and current-generation software sales of $105 million. Our estimates include $73 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of around 2.75 units for each
hardware unit sold (400,000 Wii plus 100,000 PS3).

We expect May sales to be driven by recent releases Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl and Activision’s Guitar Hero II and Spider-Man 3, along with new release Activision’s Shrek the Third (PS2, 360, Wii, DS, GBA, PC), Microsoft’s Forza Motorsport 2 (360), and Nintendo’s Mario Party 8 (Wii).

o Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 400,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 225,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 175,000
DS 475,000
GBA 75,000

o Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $80 million, down 22% compared to last year. We project a more modest decline than last month's -49%, as a strong slate of mass-market titles was released in May.

o Sales growth over the last 11 months is a robust 15%, although last month's sales declined -1%. We expect volatile sales throughout the summer, as sales comparisons get tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.

o However, we continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
 
AprilPachter (USA)April USApril CanApril totalVgc April
DS450,000471,00035,000506,000580,000
Wii300,000360,00042,000402,000336,000
PS2250,000194,00018,000212,000247,000
PSP200,000183,00012,000195,000208,000
Xbox 360175,000174,00013,000187,000197,000
PS3100,00082,0007,00089,000107,000
      
MayPachter (USA)May USMay CanMay totalVgc May
DS475,000   549,000
Wii400,000   397,000
Xbox 360225,000   237,000
PS2250,000   227,000
PSP175,000   163,000
PS3100,000   73,000
 Here are my stories on expected NPD numbers for hardware & software, each includes a 10% margin of error for direct comparison of NPD to VGChartz for USA & Canada combined over the four week period.


People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Nice. They changed the title. I think VGC are closer than Patchers numbers. When does May NPD come out?



we all know why we're here... i predict 91, 000 for the ps3 lower than expectations... no 89,000 that sounds better....



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I'd be very impressed if PS3 did over 75,000 for the USA in May by NPD numbers. I do expect around 75,000 total though for the Americas.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I'm thinking the PS3 won't do any better than April. I wonder why Pachter thinks it'll do 100,000. I'd be impressed it went up with no games.

I assume May NPD is this Thursday, the 14th? 



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having the ps3 go up to 100,000 is silly when no games came out... this guy is an idiot



when is May NPD released?



I could be wrong but I think the PS3 is caught in a pretty deadly loop right now.

  1. Low sales forces gamers, publishers/developers and analysts to ask the question "What's wrong with the PS3?"
  2. The common answer to the question  "What's wrong with the PS3?" is that it has too high of a price
  3. The high price causes speculation and rumor that the PS3 will see a major price cut very soon
  4. The rumors and speculation makes it into gaming and more mainstream press
  5. Informed consumers who are considering buying a PS3 decide not to in anticipation of a price cut
  6. Sales are reduced

The longer this cycle continues the worse things will get for the PS3 ... eventually publishers may decide that the PS3 simply can not be sold which would lead to them pulling support; this point is still months away (or sales at a much lower leve) but could be met unless something changes.



HappySqurriel said:

I could be wrong but I think the PS3 is caught in a pretty deadly loop right now.

  1. Low sales forces gamers, publishers/developers and analysts to ask the question "What's wrong with the PS3?"
  2. The common answer to the question "What's wrong with the PS3?" is that it has too high of a price
  3. The high price causes speculation and rumor that the PS3 will see a major price cut very soon
  4. The rumors and speculation makes it into gaming and more mainstream press
  5. Informed consumers who are considering buying a PS3 decide not to in anticipation of a price cut
  6. Sales are reduced

The longer this cycle continues the worse things will get for the PS3 ... eventually publishers may decide that the PS3 simply can not be sold which would lead to them pulling support; this point is still months away (or sales at a much lower leve) but could be met unless something changes.


I've been contemplating this same thing, how everyone saying Sony has reduced costs and could cut the price this year could actually be hurting their sales right now.

One thing I ask though is this: We've seen them pull support for the 20gb from the US, and it'll probably never rear it's head in Europe or Korea. Would it make a difference if they cut it down to $499? Maybe short term, but long term? I think it might actually be better if they leave it at 599 until they can safely chop 200 off of the top. 



Dolla Dolla..Patcher seems to round of his estimates to the 25,000 or 50,000 benchmark.

He predicting 100,000 for PS3 last month as well, and was too high.  I did an average for Patcher's average accuracy recently..he is generally +/- 25,000 actual NPD results.

Data will be released June 14, 2007 (Thursday) at 4:30 pm..but it probably won't be public until 6:30 to 7:00 pm (this is all East Coast USA time..England time it is more like midnight, and Los Angeles time it is more like 4 pm).

For the record, I expect (add the two for vgc comparisons)

DS - 480k USA (30-40k Canada)

Wii - 380k USA (40-45k Canada)

360 - 215k USA (15k Canada)

PS2 - 200k USA (20k Canada)

PSP - 160k USA (15k Canada)

PS3 - 68k USA (7k Canada)

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu