It was a great Sony post it growsly aticipated effects that may not occur.


That's right the only problem of the PS3 is the price, nothing else because they can have the better hardware/software/content in every aspect for the futur... soon a more complete controlller, Home communauty, free online, Ps Eye, Sony Worldwide Studios , SOE, PSP/PSP2, MGM, Colombia, Sony Music, VAIO, Sony Ericson, best retro with PS1/PS2 maybe PSP one day, fiability and silence of the hardware, HDMI 1.3, low cost HDD, blu ray, bluetooth, Wifi, card reader, Linux, the Brand

1. I completely disagree about software, the 360's holiday line up is something to marvel, Halo 3, Bioshock, Blue Dragon, GTA 4, AC, Mass Effect, Too Human, ES, LO, PGR4,SP:C and who knows what else, and I left out other major multiplatform games.

B) Content i assume you mean online and again i beleive your wrong, Xbox Live in unrivaled in the content it offers, HD movies shows, demo's for pretty much every game, a vast library of DL games. Not to mention they just launched MSN communication, Ignition will allow people to get to hear up coming bands before they release their music and IPTV will allow you to gain all the content of cable.

C) The controller is going to have 0 effect on sales people are not going to run out to buy a console because the controller shakes again.

D) Home has yet to prove itself as a system which will make playing online games more streamline and easy.

E) having SOE, which is considered by the PC community to be one of the worst devlopers is not something to put on your good list. SOE is known for bringing out average MMO's and buying up dying ones.

F) I think the PS eye will have a positive effect but MS has their camera out already who says they won't start making games for it.


The 360 has an advance because of the 1 year older.
The PS3 sells like the 360 last year but they have 200$ or 300$ more in the price... no christmas in Europe, 5 month late in europe, Wii and 360 to compete, bad image because of fanboys and FUD on the internet, big games not already out, new technology not mainstream, multi-platform games.... I think with all that it sells very well.

2. THats the great thing about bringing your system out a year early your able to sell more consoles first which then allows you to gain a lead, and stay ahead if your competitor only keeps up with your track record.

B) We have yet to see any of the surprises that the 360 has, unlike Sony they haven't shown anything new in months.

So with the price drop, christmas everywhere, great big games optimised for the PS3, online distribution, Home, new 6axis, better image, more HD-TV and Blu Ray content... They can win this generation.

3. Your talking about a price drop like its been announced, so far they have said no and money wise they can't do one yet, unlike MS which could and will most likely drop their price soon.

B) Most would argue that Halo 3 alone is bigger then any game Sony has coming out.

C) you keep talking about this mass market yet to neglect the fact that most people don't want or have a HD-TV or blue-ray/HDDVD player, the demand is not there and i doubt it will help the PS3.

4. The 360 was also terribly undersupplied for nearly half a year.

B) My last point you say Sony has brand name, but MS is on 500 million computers.

 Right, but...

Price certainly is a huge factor. I don't recall any big systems that came out at 600 bucks in previous generations. And starting out at such a larger price point means they have a lot more work to do to get the cost down to other competitors in the market. That work doesn't just happen for free, technology prices don't magically decrease.

 And the PS3 has more problems than just that. The controller with an identity crisis? So far I haven't heard much positive news about the motion control, the controller's shape pretty much makes it hard to do much more than thrust forward or pull back comfortably. It's definitely no Wiimote.

It's starting lineup? A lot of it looked similar to the 360's games that were out at the time. Sure, the Xbox was out for a year before that... but does that matter to new consumers? When you go to look for a system, and you see one that's 400, one that's 600, and they look the same out there on the demo screens, what's the average guy going to pick? Well, the Wii, apparently, but the 360 would be next in line for the graphical end.  Like someone else stated, they should've focused on the core market with the expensive price. They should've gone for broke in establishing it as the new go-to for shooters, racers, and rpgs. That's the only way to make that price tag. Less than hardcore gamers aren't going to drop 600 on a system with cheaper alternatives around. 

We do have a lot of time to go, no doubt, and considering the past of the console market we've got millions to sell. However, isn't there a good chance that DS/PSP sales actually knock down some of those sales? The graphical outputs of the PSP and the DS's diversity of games, both which have some quality portable titles, could actually take away from gamers that just don't have as much time as they might have a couple years ago.

 
A lot of uncertainty to go, but right now I can only see Sony fighting back into second place. Which would actually be a 'success' for them at this point. Because they cannot directly compete with the Wii, two different gameplay styles and markets, but if they can knock off the cheaper, headstart-having 360, sounds like a win to me. 

Two things:

1) If the value is greater than somewhere in the range of 78-104 (1 1/2 to 2 years) I wouldn't bother showing it or give it another color meaning it's too far ahead to be anywhere near accurate.

2) Where are you getting the date from on this site and would you mind making your spreadsheets available? I love making spreadsheets and tried making my own based on similar information but haven't found a good way to get the data off this site and haven't had time to put it all together. I saw your similar one based on the Wii and liked the idea of that one too and just wanted to play with a few things myself.

That all sounds very good, but calm down a bit and realize one thing - people are not making predictions based solely on current sales' numbers. There is SO much information out there, and people are using it.

Japan is already in the hand of Sony... most of the top games that japan is waiting for are on PS3. They are just waiting for them.

Not Famitsu most wanted again!!!!!

I agree completely with you that it is to early to claim that the PS3 will not pass the 360 for second place.  What I was dissagreeing with was that Sony has plenty of time to turn it around.  Because of the lead that Sony spotted Microsoft, they need to turn things around now.  A year from now will be too late to start turning things around and still expect to overcome the gap between the PS3 and the 360.

In fact, even if they would be able to turn the market around, it would not be sufficient for it. If the PS-3 is unable to get the first place till the end off 2008 it will probably be a financial disaster in the same region that the X-box had last generation.I would even say: If Sony was unable to turn around and overpower the Xbox 360 till the end of this year it will probably be doomed. Otherwise Software developes will restructure their financial support for the PS-3 and this would be a desaster. The slow sales rate together with the low software attachement rate and the high development costs is simply pure horror for most developers.

It was generally expected that they wouldf rule this generation but if they don't get the turnaround soon there will be backlash. They trusted Sony and invested so much money in this plattform but if the plattform doesn't show in the near nfuture that it was the right decision they will either reduce the budget for the PS-3 to a bare minimum or drop out of the PS-3 development altogether. In this situation they would probably loose their in house delopers too. They would be in no position to keep them from making multi plattform games.

What about the southern hemisphere??? , i mean, part of the console market in the US i really latin american(we use NTSC and get everything from the US), not a very big part but a decent one, BUT WHO CAN PAY US$600 OVER HERE?? i could buy the PS2 when it come out at $US300, and now i can get more than one easy, i think there must be more than 3,000,000 PS2 in this country, and we have a 9,000,000 population, the PS2 was ok, but now the PS3 is 600 most people have to save for 1 year to get all that money and they would never buy a console with that.

There are gamers in mexico, colombia, costa rica ect. ect ..... but we cant play. When i heard the prize of the PS3 i got angry not becouse i dont think is worth it but becouse the took away to posibility of me having fun whit it, is not that we are cheap is just imposible to buy a ps3, i want one and all my friends want one, but they are going to wait for the price to drop and in the mean time they are buying Wiis( 360 is very associate whit the big evil company image MS and most people dont like that).

please will someone tell me what they think about they influence, although small but important of the console market in third world countries.

What I don't understand with all these studies is that people are just predicting the future by relying on the current patterns which can become completely different in the future.

Will the 360 still sell at this rate next year? Will the PS3? Will the Wii? All these rates can change, so there's no point in trying to follow a pattern and predict what will happen in that way.

The post about the cost advantage highlights very well a greatly relevant point.

IMO Sony should hurry to do a basic version with the following changes:

- Cheaper box. Less gloss and maybe an external PSU (sucks but nobody doesn't buy because of it)
- No card reader
- No wi-fi

(That is a smaller remix of the 499USD model with bigger capacity HD since they cost almost the same)


Still would beat 360 in features such as BD, HD as part of the spec, bluetooth, free online and HDMI.

This could allow for an inmediate 450 USD/EUR PS3 model at similar loses.
No cripled model like the 360 core. Full functionality, next gen media capacity with no other extras that don't affect the PS3 gaming experience in the long run.
I also think within this year BD reader and Cell should be able to reduce their cost significantly, reducing the cost gap to the 360 to levels that could be absorved by users given it is a higher specs machine (ideally 50/70 bucks over 360 premium)



Price point is for sure hurting badly PS3 sales, but IMHO the biggest single factor is bad press and negative rumors everywhere. That makes people think twice and buy the "This is like Neo-Geo/3DO" not true if inflation is taken into account,
"or the launch catalog is terrible", like every other console has had, actually better than PS2's.

There are a few IFs that could turn things around seriously aside from the already mentioned triple AAA titles coming.

IF 1- A game becomes a console seller proves to be impossible to be done in DVD/multiple DVDs. This would be even stronger if this game has a (justified) crippled version on 360. Lair has a small chance to be it, PES 7 was also rumored. MGS4, FFXIII, Uncharted or a surprise like Gears was for the 360 could be it.

IF 2 - After the warranty the 9M+ 360s around start dying like crazy and the hatred takes over the media and the internet turning their anger against MS.
People tolerance for this is beyond my understanding. I see it as blind hate to Sony, because I cannot believe it is blind love for MS...

IF 3 - Home becomes a hit getting people hooked like Secondlife. Word of mouth makes people feel "outside" the next big thing if they don't join.

I have also doubts about including sixaxis as a fourth IF. What would happen if motion sensing becomes a killer app? will this make the 360 look so much as a last-gen console with updated graphics on the eyes of people?
or just a new 360 bundled with a sixaxis/wiimote clone controller would do?

Last thought, whoever wins second spot, do you see third party studios spending 20M+ on a title for a platform that hsa a user base of let's say 35M agains putting that same money into 4 titles for the Wii with double that user base?
It could make sense if the system is far less crowded like GC was, but still will be difficult. I think Wii is killing superproductions. Let's see. Anyway I heard this many times but I'm not so sure Zelda TP or Super Mario Galaxy really cost 4 times less than Heavenly Sword or MGS4.