When will PS3 Surpass Xbox360?

[NJ5]

Machina-AX said:
5th generation (PS1, N64 & SS) - total combined sales = 15x+ million.
6th generation (PS2, Gaamecube, Dreamcast & Xbox) - total combined sales so far = 17x+ million.
7th generation (PS3, Wii, 360) - total combined sales so far = 21+ million.

So unless you are all expecting a game crash a la 1980s, there are still 13x+ million consoles to be sold (going by 5th generation) or 15x million consoles to be sold (going by the 7th generation). A crash seems unlikely given the strength of the industry and that the Wii has appealed to a generation of gamers that never bought a console before. So if anything that 17x million mark will be overtaken this generation.

Given that so much hardware is still yet to be sold this generation, and given that there are 6, 7, or maybe more years to go, it is impossible to 'announce' that 'it will overtake in xx weeks', or that it will 'never overtake'.

I just think most of you that are declaring who will win and when, are taking a very short term look at this generation. A 7 million sales gap between PS3 and 360 is nothing given that over 1xx million more consoles will be sold. All that matters is how that 1xx million consoles are divided between the 3 consoles - not who is in the lead after 21 million sales.

That all sounds very good, but calm down a bit and realize one thing - people are not making predictions based solely on current sales' numbers. There is SO much information out there, and people are using it.