You shouldn't forget, that the US Slim release was 1 month earlier than in the rest of the world.

I know, I'm just saying the figure confirms its not a USA set of data as 38% is too low to be for the USA in that period.

Sony FY2010 Q2 Shipments

Where are all these PS3 sales coming from? Did not see that high a shipment total coming. Apparently Source didn't either. He was pretty much dead on with his PSP and PS2 estimates though.

DS is closing in on PS1 software numbers. Will be over 800m units of sw by the end of the year, should get to near 900m by the end of 2011. Wii is actually catching up to DS pretty quickly now - had been 200m units of sw behind it less than two years ago. By the end of the year DS will be at 815m or something and Wii perhaps at 680m. I still expect both to beat PS1 sw figures (962m) but fall short of whatever ltd PS2 ends up at (probably 1550m or so). I don't think PSP is ever going to be a top-ten system for sw now - its still 100m behind the stagnant GBA which would be the easiest to pass for entry. PS3 / X360 will likely top NES in 2012 for SW - question is whether they get much beyond 650m or so for sw. I think one of them may get to 800m or so while the other stops at 600m-700m.

why is the sales on VGChartz for PS3 40.9 while 360 sales are at 44.7?

                VGC Q4 2010       O-D 10' Shipments Est   VGC Q4  2009    O-D 09' Shipments

Wii                9.68m                       9.50m**                        12.14m                 11.31m

PS3               6.47m                        6.00m*                         6.88m                   6.50m

X360            7.36m                        7.50m                            5.02m                   5.20m

DS               10.53m                      10.20m                         12.40m                11.65m 

PSP               3.82m                       3.60m                             4.25m                  4.20m

PS2               1.62m                       1.80m                              1.95m                 2.10m

* If this ends up being the real figure, Sony may only ship 14m PS3s - it would take a 3.1m Q1 2011 to hit 15m and USA and Japanese sales look down again, like they were over Q4 2010. Microsoft actually looks like it is on pace to hit 14m in the year to March 2011 as well - but its fiscal year ends in June 2011 not March.

** PS3 & X360 shipments in the Sept 2010 quarter were 6.3m, Wii shipments were 1.93m - over 3 times greater when combined. Shipping 9.5m Wiis vs. 13.5m PS3s & X360s is actually a monumental shift for a quarter - from 13:4 in favor of the HD machines to 7:5 in favor of the HD machines. It would also indicate nearly a full flip back to the June 2010 quarter - when HD machines shipped 3.9m and Wii shipped 3.04m (14:11 in favor of HD)

Estimated LTD HW Shipments for December 2010:

PS2:  149.40m

DS: 145.78m

Wii: 85.40m

PSP: 67.80m

X360: 52.0m

PS3: 47.62m

Estimated SW Shipments:

Wii*: 80m (probably a touch ahead of expectations)

PS3: 55m (a touch ahead)

X360 - Figures are never given

DS*: 41m (probably ahead of expectations)

PSP: 17m  (in-line)

PS2: 5m (in-line)

*Sell through data suggests 90m and 50m respectively, but Nintendo's forecasts call for 168m Wii games (w/ bundles) and 110m DS games for the FY - so I doubt the figures will beat those numbers by much. There is also a ton of Wii / DS sw that tends to cleared out for Christmas so it isn't unreasonable for sellthrough in Oct-Dec to be used to thin inventory levels for all the flops that clog up space.

LTD SW Estimates / HW Estimates / Games Per AVG User for Dec 2010:

PS2: 1526m / 149.4m = 10.2 Games Per AVG PS2 User

DS: 814.3m / 145.8m = 5.59 Games Per AVG DS User

Wii: 690.0m / 85.4m = 8.08 Games Per AVG Wii User

PS3: 405.6m / 47.6m = 8.52 Games Per AVG PS3 User

PSP: 288m / 67.8m = 4.25 Games Per AVG PSP User

As usual, the numbers are great!  Keep up the great work.

I think that TheSource is right about the PS3 shipments coming up short at only 14 million VS the 15 million that they projected to ship.

HW could actually end up being quite poor for the Wii this quarter, I think. Considering how ridiculously high VGC had it for some weeks in November, Wii may be rather overtracked there. Americas may still be a bit high, too, since VGC's still ~500k off NPD. Something ridiculously low like ~7.5m isn't actually out of question.

Software, though, should be fun to watch. With all the surprise hits and leggy software, it could be well above of expectations, especially since a lot of third party titles that could have been overtracked (JD2, MJ, EM) have been confirmed not to be.

When does Nintendo report again? The 29th?