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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.24%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.42%
 
Second half of 2023 15 9.09%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.85%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.48%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.64%
 
Second half of 2025 3 1.82%
 
Later than above 1 0.61%
 
Never 107 64.85%
 
Total:165
padib said:

Guys, Nintendo hasn't even started a proper generation for Mario Kart, Smash, NSMB. All these big hitters are deluxe editions of the WiiU titles. Now imagine Nintendo launches Mario Kart 9, a new NSMB, Breath of the Wild 2, ,Mario Galaxy 3, Metroid Prime 4. We basically have another console lifespan, for a total of two gens within a given platform (Switch).

I think we will be shocked by Switch sales by the time it has run its course in 2027.

Smash is a brand new game 



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MasonADC said:
padib said:

Guys, Nintendo hasn't even started a proper generation for Mario Kart, Smash, NSMB. All these big hitters are deluxe editions of the WiiU titles. Now imagine Nintendo launches Mario Kart 9, a new NSMB, Breath of the Wild 2, ,Mario Galaxy 3, Metroid Prime 4. We basically have another console lifespan, for a total of two gens within a given platform (Switch).

I think we will be shocked by Switch sales by the time it has run its course in 2027.

Smash is a brand new game 

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.



padib said:
MasonADC said:

Smash is a brand new game 

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

This is factually wrong.



padib said:
MasonADC said:

Smash is a brand new game 

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

That is wrong, MK8D is just a better resolution + all of DLC version of MK8. While Smash Ultimate was created by entirely a new engine and assets. 



padib said:
MasonADC said:

Smash is a brand new game 

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.



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LGBTDBZBBQ said:
victor83fernandes said:

I was right when I said the wii was going to sell way more than gamecube and I was right when I said the switch would sell way more than the wiiU. I was right when I said the ps4 would sell way more than Xbox one and I was right when I said the new consoles would come end of 2020 when everyone was saying 2019 a few years back.

If you get your predictions from hardware by date, then the wii would have sold minimum 150 million by now as it was a phenomenon. 

If you use the same tool and match sales ps4 vs switch, you'd know they sold about the same for the first years, so the switch could outsell the ps4 in the end when ps4 goes out of production, lets say in 8-9 years.

Then again, I don't need tools, I have a brain, look at 3ds, it was outselling the ps3 for quite a while, still haven't out sold it to this date.

Switch can be scalable, but next gen games will be far too advanced to scale it to a tablet device. From next year the only AAA 3rd party will be remasters or current gen ports or low budget games.

Same with 3DS, there were newer games that couldn't run on the older 3ds (xenoblades for example even tough it was much worse than the wii version), so many of those 3ds sales were not new consumers, but people just upgrading.

In 2019 Nintendo sold really well due mostly to the LITE switch, which sold to people who only wanted a portable, but now there's not much reason to buy it, most people who wanted a hydrid or portable already bought it.

If they come out with an upgraded switch (lets call it a + version) most buyers would be people who already have a switch.

To put things into perspective, lets look at the numbers of software sold in total, probably things would look very different, I believe ps consumers buy more games than Nintendo consumers. 

I have all consoles, but I do have more games on wiiU than switch, if we really think about it the switch didn't get many exclusives in 3 years, Xenoblades 2, Mario galaxy, Mario + rabbids and Luigi mansion 3, I never liked smash bros, I don't do fighting games and I don't like splatoon, I do not play online ever So what else is there on the switch? Most of third party games I'd rather play in 4K on my 100inch projector with much better graphics and performance at much cheaper prices, example witcher 3, looks horrible on the switch, performs worse, and costs 3x the price.

Last Quarter shipment number.
Switch Hybrid - 7.58M
Switch Lite - 3.24M

Japan(Biggest portable market) January 2020 sales data
Switch Hybrid - 416k
Switch Lite - 225K


I think it's time for you to use facts instead of imaginary thoughts. Nintendo is currently facing a stock problem for Hybrid Switch in Japan while Switch Lite is readily available. 

That strengthens my point, switch sold a lot because of the new smaller model, so it had a jump in sales, wont happen this year.

Those are not facts at all, no one has facts for the next years sales, no one can predict the future, if I could I would invest in shares.

Just like the Wii and 3ds which were selling a lot the first few years and then had a massive drop. Playstations tend to sell well for a much longer period of time than Nintendo consoles. None of this is imaginary, it happens with Nintendo every time.



TruckOSaurus said:
victor83fernandes said:

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

Last edited by victor83fernandes - on 08 February 2020

Radek said:
I'd already be happy with 120 millions for PS4. I think Switch will pass Wii but will fall short of PS4 by at least 10 millions.

I would be happy with 70 million, as it would have guaranteed the games, less than that and I think sony would have not invest so much in exclusives.

But 120 million? That's too low, it will hit 112 million as a bare minimum the end of this year. Sony will still keep making the ps4 for at least another 6 or 7 years on top of that. And a much cheaper ps4 could sell very well for a while for people who cant afford to buy a 520dollars console (ps5 450dollars + game 70 dollars)



victor83fernandes said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Last Quarter shipment number.
Switch Hybrid - 7.58M
Switch Lite - 3.24M

Japan(Biggest portable market) January 2020 sales data
Switch Hybrid - 416k
Switch Lite - 225K


I think it's time for you to use facts instead of imaginary thoughts. Nintendo is currently facing a stock problem for Hybrid Switch in Japan while Switch Lite is readily available. 

That strengthens my point, switch sold a lot because of the new smaller model, so it had a jump in sales, wont happen this year.

Those are not facts at all, no one has facts for the next years sales, no one can predict the future, if I could I would invest in shares.

Just like the Wii and 3ds which were selling a lot the first few years and then had a massive drop. Playstations tend to sell well for a much longer period of time than Nintendo consoles. None of this is imaginary, it happens with Nintendo every time.

Switch is not following the same trend as 3DS or the Wii. It's outselling the 3DS despite being much more expensive and having more room left for price cuts, and there's no reason for it to follow the same pattern as the Wii as the circumstances are totally different.

Now that the Switch is a singular unified platform for all of Nintendo's software, it is no longer bound by the precedents of past systems. Nintendo has openly said the Switch will have a longer lifespan.



curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

You have a very good point, Nintendo can and will sell as a portable, not a home console, hence why the LITE is selling so well, but the same with 3ds, it hit a plateau in sales, all Nintendo portables sell for a few years until they release a new model. Most people who wanted one already got one. 

The big issue with the switch is it doesn't have backwards compatibility, the 3ds had full compatibility with DS games, then another huge issue, switch games are way more expensive than 3ds games, portable games was always cheaper than home console games. Another issue, the switch is really not that portable, you cant fold it and put in the pocket like the 3ds.

So I really do not see the switch selling more than 100 million until a switch 2 arrives. Even the 3ds which was very popular didn't reach those numbers during 9 years at a cheaper price.

The switch had a huge advantage, it came out when everyone already had a ps or xbox, and after the wiiU which no one wanted. So people had their wallets ready and no new toys to buy.

But going forward there's more competition for peoples wallets for Christmas, brand new consoles that will be desired by all kids, the new consoles will be the top sellers this Christmas period, by far.

But again you have a point, the switch is a good spot by being the only portable console going forward. To be honest I'm surprised sony didn't jump in with a similar device mid generation, a current technology Vita would blow the switch away, I remember testing my Vita and 3ds side by side, and there was no competition at all, Sony doesn't cheap out as much as Nintendo. Imagine a Switch with OLED screen, double the battery, double the storage, smaller bezels, more power.

Switch is selling at a much faster pace than the 3DS though, despite being much more expensive.

It's already over 10 million ahead of where 3DS was at the same point, and the gap is widening.

And Switch is a totally different product to PS and Xbox; it doesn't sell for the same reasons and occupies a different niche. Since PS5 and XSX won't offer gaming on the go or games like Pokemon and Smash, the arrival of those systems won't supplant Switch's value proposition and therefore won't significantly affect its sales.

That's where you are wrong, both ps5 and xbox series X will offer gaming on the go, with the 5G in the future, and internet everywhere, you can access your ps5 and xbox games streamed to your tablet, phone, laptop etc, I can bet with you that both sony and Microsoft will present such a service very soon. I am certain of this because I'm always right about these things, I've followed gaming for 30 years.

The switch being 10 million over the 3ds is nothing to boost, the 3ds hasn't caught up to the ps3 or xbox 360 or wii yet, let alone ps4 numbers. My point remains, following your own graphic, and logic from the 3ds, wii, etc, I always said the switch will sell a lot more than the 3ds, 100 million easy in 4-5 years, but will not catch up to ps4 which will be minimum 140 million by that time. The best the switch could do is 120 million, ONLY IF Nintendo doesn't release a new switch 2 which is highly unlikely, because Nintendo never kept the same console for more than 7-8 years without a new one.