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VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

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curl-6 said:
10 million lead over 3DS, awesome.
By this point 3DS had sold more than half its lifetime sales too, while Switch should be less frontloaded as it's only had one revision so far and the standard model is still $300.

In 2014 the 3DS sold 9.74m, so in 2020 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead.

In 2015 the 3DS sold 7.33m, so in 2021 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead because, like you said, Switch still has plenty of price cut and revision options left in order to stabilize its sales in the future. Selling 18m units in 2021 isn't really that much of a challenge.

In 2016 the 3DS sold 7.59m. Switch enters 2022 with a cumulative lead of 30m which is what curl-6 predicts to be the lead in lifetime sales in the end. So for 2022 Switch sales, curl-6 is predicting that Switch will fall off a cliff and then proceed to sell like the 3DS did late in its life. Note that curl-6 doesn't think that that qualifies as having a pessimistic outlook.

3DS in 2017: 6.63m.
3DS in 2018: 3.50m.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:
10 million lead over 3DS, awesome.
By this point 3DS had sold more than half its lifetime sales too, while Switch should be less frontloaded as it's only had one revision so far and the standard model is still $300.

In 2014 the 3DS sold 9.74m, so in 2020 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead.

In 2015 the 3DS sold 7.33m, so in 2021 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead because, like you said, Switch still has plenty of price cut and revision options left in order to stabilize its sales in the future. Selling 18m units in 2021 isn't really that much of a challenge.

In 2016 the 3DS sold 7.59m. Switch enters 2022 with a cumulative lead of 30m which is what curl-6 predicts to be the lead in lifetime sales in the end. So for 2022 Switch sales, curl-6 is predicting that Switch will fall off a cliff and then proceed to sell like the 3DS did late in its life. Note that curl-6 doesn't think that that qualifies as having a pessimistic outlook.

3DS in 2017: 6.63m.
3DS in 2018: 3.50m.

I guess I was scarred by the Wii's twilight years but I am still wary of whether Nintendo will put the effort into pushing the Switch beyond next year or turn stupid again and move on prematurely.



You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 4,310,904 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,765,954 – Switch

Total Lead: 6,950,987 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

PS4 Total Sales: 42,857,013



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

Looking good for Switch. With that kind of lead it can stay ahead of the PS4 even when Sony's console has had an additional holiday season by month 38.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Looking good for Switch. With that kind of lead it can stay ahead of the PS4 even when Sony's console has had an additional holiday season by month 38.

Yes, Switch should stay ahead of the PS4's next holiday with the Gap Charts. Long term the question is will it have as strong legs as the PS4. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

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trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 4,310,904 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,765,954 – Switch

Total Lead: 6,950,987 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

PS4 Total Sales: 42,857,013

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.



curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 4,310,904 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,765,954 – Switch

Total Lead: 6,950,987 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

PS4 Total Sales: 42,857,013

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.

The only reason they go back and forth so much is both launched at different times of the year. The PS3 and Xbox 360 battle was really close. The 360 launched a year earlier, so had a head start. However, in the end the PS3 just beat out the 360. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.

The only reason they go back and forth so much is both launched at different times of the year. The PS3 and Xbox 360 battle was really close. The 360 launched a year earlier, so had a head start. However, in the end the PS3 just beat out the 360. 

PS3 and 360 weren't as big as PS4/Switch though. Those two ended around 85-87 million; PS4's already at 106 million and Switch should also pass 100 million.



curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

The only reason they go back and forth so much is both launched at different times of the year. The PS3 and Xbox 360 battle was really close. The 360 launched a year earlier, so had a head start. However, in the end the PS3 just beat out the 360. 

PS3 and 360 weren't as big as PS4/Switch though. Those two ended around 85-87 million; PS4's already at 106 million and Switch should also pass 100 million.

Quite true. I was just mentioning another close race. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

That offset launch has made the lead change incredible to watch.

From a 2.5 million PS4 lead to a 7 million Switch lead. And that PS4 lead was literally just 3 months ago.



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