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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 14 September 2019 (PS4 Tops 100M)

Intrinsic said:
MasonADC said:

Lol the switch lite won’t overtake the regular switch in total sales or weekly sales. I would even say that this time next year the og switch will still garner most of the sales 

You are soon wrong its hard to fathom.

You really believe that going forward the witch lite will not be the better selling SKU? Because people really want to spend $100 more to buy the other version of the switch? 

I bought another one today just for you!

Well tbh I also wanted a updated battery life model from the moment I heard about it. Today was just the day.

As for your billion dollar question you think people are afraid to answer, yup the switch lite is a handheld only version of the switch, again does that change the og form factor? Nope, not at all, a study a while ago from Nintendo showed that an equal number of people used the switch exclusively as a home system as the number who exclusively used it as a handheld, while the rest in the middle made up around 70 who used the machine as both are various times.

If that first was around 15% as I recall that means around 4.5m switch units have never been played outside of the dock as a handheld, to those people your tale of the switch being a handheld is completely baffling as that is an optional form factor that literally millions of people do not use.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

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Dulfite said:
Intrinsic said:

You are soon wrong its hard to fathom.

You really believe that going forward the witch lite will not be the better selling SKU? Because people really want to spend $100 more to buy the other version of the switch? 

The other version that's bigger, now has a better battery, and can go on the tv? I think LITE will never sell as much as regular switch.

Maths suggests that by the end of system life the lite cannot have more sales, even if the base model didn't sell another unit right now then the switch lite would need to sell 37m units to tie that race up. Now... Let's say instead that the switch lite happened to be twice as popular as the base model and there was never a pro model update that would mean that during the next 40m lites sold another 20m base switch's would sell, so you would need another 10m lite to counter that, during which 5m more base would sell and another 2.5m lite to 1.25m base etc you would be looking at the switch needing to sell around 150m systems for the lite to pass the base model from today if the lite sold twice as well as the base did, and for that to happen there could never be a pro revision of the base factor switch.

Almost impossible from a sales point of view from the head start the base model has, would be like someone suggesting that the ps4 pro could outsell the base system after the base had sold 60m+



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

MasonADC said:
Deeds said:

You are forgetting one very important thing. The price of Switch games are $60. Getting a Switch and a game at Christmas just became a whole lot cheaper thanks to the Lite. Also The Switch will be around for a while. I think the Lite will eventually catch up.

You do know the normal switch isn’t gonna stop selling right?

I never said the normal Switch will stop selling. As a matter of fact the normal Switch will probably go up in sales. All I'm saying is that the Lite will sell FASTER and beat it in the long run because the barrier of entry to get to the Nintendo exclusives (which is the main driver of Switch sales) is much lower.



Dulfite said:
Deeds said:

Wait. Is a lower price now a non factor? Since when? I'd bet money the Switch Lite will eventually outsell the Switch.

Yeah but it has no unique games so the vast majority of us won't double dip. If it had it's own lineup then yes that lower price would make it sell like crazy.

Dude, Pokemon is now $60 and you dont have to spend $360+ tax to get to play it. You guys are really underestimating the theory that Hiroshi Yamauchi put forth that "people like the games, BUT do not like to buy hardware that the games are locked behind, so hardware should always be cheap". I'm betting that Yamauchi will be proven right again.



Deeds said:
MasonADC said:

You do know the normal switch isn’t gonna stop selling right?

I never said the normal Switch will stop selling. As a matter of fact the normal Switch will probably go up in sales. All I'm saying is that the Lite will sell FASTER and beat it in the long run because the barrier of entry to get to the Nintendo exclusives (which is the main driver of Switch sales) is much lower.

1. Exactly how much do you expect the switch to sale? 110 million is looking like the endgoal right now, and for the lite to make up the majority of that, the normal switch will have to slow down a lot.

2. The normal switch isn't going to be $300 forever. I am not sure why some people seem to think it wont ever get a price cut. 

3. While the barrier of entry is lower at the moment, that still doesn't mean that the majority of people will undercut the benefits of the OG switch, especially in the long term. 



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MasonADC said:
Deeds said:

I never said the normal Switch will stop selling. As a matter of fact the normal Switch will probably go up in sales. All I'm saying is that the Lite will sell FASTER and beat it in the long run because the barrier of entry to get to the Nintendo exclusives (which is the main driver of Switch sales) is much lower.

1. Exactly how much do you expect the switch to sale? 110 million is looking like the endgoal right now, and for the lite to make up the majority of that, the normal switch will have to slow down a lot.

2. The normal switch isn't going to be $300 forever. I am not sure why some people seem to think it wont ever get a price cut. 

3. While the barrier of entry is lower at the moment, that still doesn't mean that the majority of people will undercut the benefits of the OG switch, especially in the long term. 

(1) I dont know where it will end up, but I predict it will outsell the PS4 by a whole LOT.

(2) When the regular Switch goes down in price the Lite will follow suit. Why do you think the Lite will be $199 forever?

(3) Average Joe is EXTREMELY price sensitive. This is why companies have always removed features to get the price down to increase sales, PS3 removing BC, Gamecube removing digital port, Wii removing BC, etc.



Deeds said:

(1) I dont know where it will end up, but I predict it will outsell the PS4 by a whole LOT.

Interesting. How much do you expect the PS4 to sell?



Deeds said:
MasonADC said:

1. Exactly how much do you expect the switch to sale? 110 million is looking like the endgoal right now, and for the lite to make up the majority of that, the normal switch will have to slow down a lot.

2. The normal switch isn't going to be $300 forever. I am not sure why some people seem to think it wont ever get a price cut. 

3. While the barrier of entry is lower at the moment, that still doesn't mean that the majority of people will undercut the benefits of the OG switch, especially in the long term. 

(1) I dont know where it will end up, but I predict it will outsell the PS4 by a whole LOT.

(2) When the regular Switch goes down in price the Lite will follow suit. Why do you think the Lite will be $199 forever?

(3) Average Joe is EXTREMELY price sensitive. This is why companies have always removed features to get the price down to increase sales, PS3 removing BC, Gamecube removing digital port, Wii removing BC, etc.

1. No 

2. There comes a time where the price will be so low that it won't matter. The Lite will always be cheaper than the OG, but they'll both be in the super cheap market.

3. Not sure what that last part has to do with anything.

If something is clearly better than a cheaper alternative, I think the better object will win in the end. This happened with the 3ds and 2ds, it will happen with the Switch. Also, you really think it will outsell ps4 by a lot? Like really? PS4 on track for 130 million and you think Switch will outsell by A LOT? I respect everyones opinion, but cmon man. 



Replicant said:
Deeds said:

(1) I dont know where it will end up, but I predict it will outsell the PS4 by a whole LOT.

Interesting. How much do you expect the PS4 to sell?

Much less than Switch.



MasonADC said:
Deeds said:

(1) I dont know where it will end up, but I predict it will outsell the PS4 by a whole LOT.

(2) When the regular Switch goes down in price the Lite will follow suit. Why do you think the Lite will be $199 forever?

(3) Average Joe is EXTREMELY price sensitive. This is why companies have always removed features to get the price down to increase sales, PS3 removing BC, Gamecube removing digital port, Wii removing BC, etc.

1. No 

2. There comes a time where the price will be so low that it won't matter. The Lite will always be cheaper than the OG, but they'll both be in the super cheap market.

3. Not sure what that last part has to do with anything.

If something is clearly better than a cheaper alternative, I think the better object will win in the end. This happened with the 3ds and 2ds, it will happen with the Switch. Also, you really think it will outsell ps4 by a lot? Like really? PS4 on track for 130 million and you think Switch will outsell by A LOT? I respect everyones opinion, but cmon man. 

Switch will outsell PS4 (by a lot) and certain people will use the "bu-but its a handheld" excuse and say not to compare them. You see some people setting up for that already. Dont get salty when it happens (it happened in Japan already) just ask Sony to release a portable PS4.