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August NPD 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - August NPD 2019

HerlockSholmes said:

Again: I could be wrong with my method somehow/somewhere, but I'm like 90-95% sure that the results should be in those ranges:

June:

[NSW] 342K - 352K
[PS4] 188K - 229K (probably above 200K, below are some edge cases)
[XB1] 158K - 165K

July:

[NSW] 247K - 258K
[PS4] 176K - 184K
[XB1] 103K - 109K

August:

[NSW] 238K - 262K
[PS4] 178K - 200K (approx.)
[XB1] 98K - 102K

Last three months:

[NSW] 827K - 872K (up 5 - 10% YoY; last year NSW also had strong sales after E3)
[PS4] 542K - 613K (down 19 - 29% YoY; so a better performance than in April and May where it had a tough YoY comparison due to GoW)
[XB1] 359K - 376K (down 34 - 37% YoY; let's see if they got something up their sleeve for the rest of the year)

How do these numbers compare to those here on VGChartz?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
HerlockSholmes said:

Again: I could be wrong with my method somehow/somewhere, but I'm like 90-95% sure that the results should be in those ranges:

June:

[NSW] 342K - 352K
[PS4] 188K - 229K (probably above 200K, below are some edge cases)
[XB1] 158K - 165K

July:

[NSW] 247K - 258K
[PS4] 176K - 184K
[XB1] 103K - 109K

August:

[NSW] 238K - 262K
[PS4] 178K - 200K (approx.)
[XB1] 98K - 102K

Last three months:

[NSW] 827K - 872K (up 5 - 10% YoY; last year NSW also had strong sales after E3)
[PS4] 542K - 613K (down 19 - 29% YoY; so a better performance than in April and May where it had a tough YoY comparison due to GoW)
[XB1] 359K - 376K (down 34 - 37% YoY; let's see if they got something up their sleeve for the rest of the year)

How do these numbers compare to those here on VGChartz?

VGC has the following according to http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=USA&ending=Monthly (rounded to the nearest thousand):

June

NSW: 265k
PS4: 255k
XBO: 110k


July

NSW: 278k
PS4: 201k
XBO: 103k


August

NSW: 331k
PS4: 248k
XBO: 122k



Shadow1980 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How do these numbers compare to those here on VGChartz?

VGC has the following according to http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=USA&ending=Monthly (rounded to the nearest thousand):

June

NSW: 265k
PS4: 255k
XBO: 110k


July

NSW: 278k
PS4: 201k
XBO: 103k


August

NSW: 331k
PS4: 248k
XBO: 122k

Thx for the data Shadow. So, let's compare:

In June, PS4 is overtracked while both Switch and XBO are strongly undertracked

In July XBO is about right while Switch and PS4 are slightly overtracked

In August everyone is overtracked quite a bit.

As for the 3 months totals, Switch comes out minimally too high, PS4 is overtracked by at least 90k while the XBO is somewhat undertracked.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 30 September 2019

For the first time in three months, it's Chart Time!

As stated earlier, I used the figures that were from the #1 predictors in the Era hardware prediction threads. Except for one, they all are within or right on the cusp of the estimates provided by Herlock, so I left what I had without changing them (the exception was the August figure for the XBO, which I bumped up from 90k to 100k). The first chart's resolution is 1 pixel ≈ 5200 units, so there is probably an error of anywhere from one to three pixels for most figures over the past three months. For other non-cumulative charts, the margin of error in pixels will be larger or smaller depending on how large the numbers on the vertical axis are. Charts with cumulative sales may also have small multi-pixel margins of error.

Well, enough with the caveats. Let's get on with it.

I may post some more charts later.



HerlockSholmes said:

Again: I could be wrong with my method somehow/somewhere, but I'm like 90-95% sure that the results should be in those ranges:

June:

[NSW] 342K - 352K
[PS4] 188K - 229K (probably above 200K, below are some edge cases)
[XB1] 158K - 165K

July:

[NSW] 247K - 258K
[PS4] 176K - 184K
[XB1] 103K - 109K

August:

[NSW] 238K - 262K
[PS4] 178K - 200K (approx.)
[XB1] 98K - 102K

Last three months:

[NSW] 827K - 872K (up 5 - 10% YoY; last year NSW also had strong sales after E3)
[PS4] 542K - 613K (down 19 - 29% YoY; so a better performance than in April and May where it had a tough YoY comparison due to GoW)
[XB1] 359K - 376K (down 34 - 37% YoY; let's see if they got something up their sleeve for the rest of the year)

What exactly is your method?



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thismeintiel said:
HerlockSholmes said:

Again: I could be wrong with my method somehow/somewhere, but I'm like 90-95% sure that the results should be in those ranges:

June:

[NSW] 342K - 352K
[PS4] 188K - 229K (probably above 200K, below are some edge cases)
[XB1] 158K - 165K

July:

[NSW] 247K - 258K
[PS4] 176K - 184K
[XB1] 103K - 109K

August:

[NSW] 238K - 262K
[PS4] 178K - 200K (approx.)
[XB1] 98K - 102K

Last three months:

[NSW] 827K - 872K (up 5 - 10% YoY; last year NSW also had strong sales after E3)
[PS4] 542K - 613K (down 19 - 29% YoY; so a better performance than in April and May where it had a tough YoY comparison due to GoW)
[XB1] 359K - 376K (down 34 - 37% YoY; let's see if they got something up their sleeve for the rest of the year)

What exactly is your method?

I'm really curious about that as well. I mean, why is everybody so quick to assume that these numbers are more trustworthy than the ones provided by VGC? Especially when the poster did not specifically say that they were leaked numbers, and literally said that he was just 90-95% sure of them.



chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:

What exactly is your method?

I'm really curious about that as well. I mean, why is everybody so quick to assume that these numbers are more trustworthy than the ones provided by VGC? Especially when the poster did not specifically say that they were leaked numbers, and literally said that he was just 90-95% sure of them.

1: Because the numbers are close to the winner predictions on Era.
2: We don't have any alternatives and basically depend on these to be true.

It's only natural for the leaker to be cautious about revealing identity, source, exact numbers, methods, etc. considering how deadly NPD's ninjas have been in the past.



We back to mid 2017 where we only had rough estimate instead of "leaks", but that's surely better than nothing. Will update thread later.



Replicant said:
chakkra said:

I'm really curious about that as well. I mean, why is everybody so quick to assume that these numbers are more trustworthy than the ones provided by VGC? Especially when the poster did not specifically say that they were leaked numbers, and literally said that he was just 90-95% sure of them.

1: Because the numbers are close to the winner predictions on Era.
2: We don't have any alternatives and basically depend on these to be true.

It's only natural for the leaker to be cautious about revealing identity, source, exact numbers, methods, etc. considering how deadly NPD's ninjas have been in the past.

We are on a website that literally provides estimates every week. Shouldn't we wait to see if the VGC team actually acknowledges these estimates?



chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:

What exactly is your method?

I'm really curious about that as well. I mean, why is everybody so quick to assume that these numbers are more trustworthy than the ones provided by VGC? Especially when the poster did not specifically say that they were leaked numbers, and literally said that he was just 90-95% sure of them.

I'm guessing that these are just ranges estimated using the prediction winners on Era, not actual leaks.