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Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Seems like 20m next year is now a plausibility. Just feel Pokemon next gen + Mario Maker + Animal Crossing will be a killer combo when you add the evergreen titles and some decent first party titles like Luigi's Mansion, Zelda 2D, Labo VR and whatever else they might throw in there. That all bodes well for a big 2019, which we have seen in the first 3 months so far.



YNWA

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kopstudent89 said:
Seems like 20m next year is now a plausibility. Just feel Pokemon next gen + Mario Maker + Animal Crossing will be a killer combo when you add the evergreen titles and some decent first party titles like Luigi's Mansion, Zelda 2D, Labo VR and whatever else they might throw in there. That all bodes well for a big 2019, which we have seen in the first 3 months so far.

Don't forget the's Fire Emblem which does cause a spike in Japan.



DonFerrari said:
haxxiy said:

It was always a pipe dream, considering we do know how much the Wii and the 3DS sold in this very site and could make a reasonable estimate. But VGC has been like this for Nintendo hardware for over ten years already, if you want to know.

Software, on the other hand, seems pretty good. Except for the Yoshi game, which deserved more.

Edit - oh, that's just Yoshi's initial shipment. Didn't realize it had just released haha. So that's good.

20M I think is achievable this year, 25M was the too much optimism for me.

SW really is where it is shining a lot.

It still early to estimate what will be the end total, but 80-100M seems a safety bracket.

As long as it's not replaced too early, I believe 3DS numbers are a good bet, and 3DS + Wii-U an optimal result.



 

 

 

 

 

DonFerrari said:
Mandalore76 said:

This is the exact quote you were countering:

Dulfite said:
Rather than focusing on the fact that they missed their lofty goal, can we not simply appreciate how far the switch has come compared to Wii U? Only the Wii after the GameCube was probably a greater comeback in gaming history.

Your counter was that you think the PS3 is the greatest comeback in video gaming history. That can only mean that you think the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into slightly over 2nd place is a bigger comeback than not just the Switch, but also the Wii. While we don't know yet where the Switch will finish in lifetime sales, we do know that it only took 10 months to surpass the lifetime sales of its predecessor the Wii U. The Wii U finished in last place not just in it's generation, but was the lowest selling home console in Nintendo's history. Threads and comments to the effect of "Nintendo needs to leave hardware and go 3rd Party" were commonplace on this site prior to the launch of the Switch.  Less than 3 years later and Nintendo now has the leading global hardware seller on the current market. That is the great comeback Dulfite was commenting on. And it was compared to Nintendo's other comeback of the Wii finishing 1st in its generation with over 101 million units sold right after its predecessor the Gamecube had just finished 3rd in its generation with less than 22 million units sold.  So, I'm trying to figure out your reasoning for stating the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into 2nd place would be considered "the greatest comeback in gaming history".  Please elaborate.

Nintendo needs to go third party are a thing in VGC since Wii days.

The reasoning for PS3 being the biggest comeback is because it was done on the same generation instead of killing off the HW. Also as people here like to point it is successor to 3DS as well (and it finished first on its gen with 75M sold).

We have radically different views on what constitutes/defines "greatest comeback" then.  I'll leave it at that.



Nintendo, just round up geez. 50k from 17m?!? Lolol



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I think they will sell in the 18.5-19.5M range this year possibly and this year will be the peak year for Switch.

After that Nintendo basically runs low on new A-tier franchises, they'll have used up 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokmeon, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (which is selling more like a regular iteration since most people didn't have a Wii U), Fire Emblem, and even 2D Mario is well represented with NSMUDX and Mario Maker 2.

The Mini model should be cheaper this year too, so I mean I think there's only so much price cuts are gonna do going past that.

That's part of the challenge Nintendo has ... they rely heavily on their A-tier franchises to sell systems, but usually by about year 3, they've used up most of those big guns. Of course they can make sequels like Mario Odyssey 2 or BOTW2 type stuff but the second time around it has a much lower effect on hardware because the fanbase for those games has already jumped on (especially when you see how well things like BOTW and Odyssey are selling).

If they don't have a true Pro model and just some lame New 3DS type revision for the base model, that hurts their long term sales projections going forward too. The Pro/X have helped the PS4/XB1 maintain sales, if Switch is really not going to have that, that's another thing the Switch doesn't get to benefit from and will likely have sales peak and then decline notably hard in year 4/5/6 as is the norm for Nintendo systems.

PS4 is likely going to outsell the Switch at 16.95M ... PS4 is forecast at 17.5M by Sony ... that just shows you, the very old PS4 is still outselling the much younger Switch, the PS4 Pro has a lot to do with the PS4 being able to maintain very good legs in the back half of its life cycle when it should be falling off. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 25 April 2019

Soundwave said:
I think they will sell in the 18.5-19.5M range this year possibly and this year will be the peak year for Switch.

After that Nintendo basically runs low on new A-tier franchises, they'll have used up 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokmeon, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (which is selling more like a regular iteration since most people didn't have a Wii U), Fire Emblem, and even 2D Mario is well represented with NSMUDX and Mario Maker 2.

The Mini model should be cheaper this year too, so I mean I think there's only so much price cuts are gonna do going past that.

That's part of the challenge Nintendo has ... they rely heavily on their A-tier franchises to sell systems, but usually by about year 3, they've used up most of those big guns. Of course they can make sequels like Mario Odyssey 2 or BOTW2 type stuff but the second time around it has a much lower effect on hardware because the fanbase for those games has already jumped on (especially when you see how well things like BOTW and Odyssey are selling).

If they don't have a true Pro model and just some lame New 3DS type revision for the base model, that hurts their long term sales projections going forward too. The Pro/X have helped the PS4/XB1 maintain sales, if Switch is really not going to have that, that's another thing the Switch doesn't get to benefit from and will likely have sales peak and then decline notably hard in year 4/5/6 as is the norm for Nintendo systems.

Your notion is a bit narrow when it comes to selling power, Mario Party for instance has sold 6m, Luigi's Mansion is a 4m seller the are still the likes of a potential Tomodachi which is a 6m selling franchise as well the will be another Pokemon title in future the will be another Zelda game fanbase being there doesn't stop it growing BOTW has grown beyond what prior games have obtained, you also don't factor in the prospect of third party deals like the Marvel Alliance one and Bayo 3, Dragon Quest XII will also definitely be on Switch with how dominant the system is over in Japan, what you list as A tier aren't the only sellers. A Pro model is not required for the long term because as 3DS, PS4 and X1 showed the enhanced model's feature is hardly used (In the X1's case barely changed it's position) plus Switch has the entire portable market to itself.



Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:
I think they will sell in the 18.5-19.5M range this year possibly and this year will be the peak year for Switch.

After that Nintendo basically runs low on new A-tier franchises, they'll have used up 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokmeon, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (which is selling more like a regular iteration since most people didn't have a Wii U), Fire Emblem, and even 2D Mario is well represented with NSMUDX and Mario Maker 2.

The Mini model should be cheaper this year too, so I mean I think there's only so much price cuts are gonna do going past that.

That's part of the challenge Nintendo has ... they rely heavily on their A-tier franchises to sell systems, but usually by about year 3, they've used up most of those big guns. Of course they can make sequels like Mario Odyssey 2 or BOTW2 type stuff but the second time around it has a much lower effect on hardware because the fanbase for those games has already jumped on (especially when you see how well things like BOTW and Odyssey are selling).

If they don't have a true Pro model and just some lame New 3DS type revision for the base model, that hurts their long term sales projections going forward too. The Pro/X have helped the PS4/XB1 maintain sales, if Switch is really not going to have that, that's another thing the Switch doesn't get to benefit from and will likely have sales peak and then decline notably hard in year 4/5/6 as is the norm for Nintendo systems.

Your notion is a bit narrow when it comes to selling power, Mario Party for instance has sold 6m, Luigi's Mansion is a 4m seller the are still the likes of a potential Tomodachi which is a 6m selling franchise as well the will be another Pokemon title in future the will be another Zelda game fanbase being there doesn't stop it growing BOTW has grown beyond what prior games have obtained, you also don't factor in the prospect of third party deals like the Marvel Alliance one and Bayo 3, Dragon Quest XII will also definitely be on Switch with how dominant the system is over in Japan, what you list as A tier aren't the only sellers. A Pro model is not required for the long term because as 3DS, PS4 and X1 showed the enhanced model's feature is hardly used (In the X1's case barely changed it's position) plus Switch has the entire portable market to itself.

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. I think the Pro model certainly has a lot to do with that, its kept the hardware line fresh. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

A BOTW2 is not going to bring in like millions of new consumers, most BOTW/Zelda fans will own a Switch for BOTW. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 25 April 2019

Soundwave said:

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

It outsold Switch which hasn't had a price cut and had most of it's major releases delayed, over the last 6 months however NS has been outselling it to the point it made up for a luke warm Q1 and Q2 this doesn't really back your point, 3DS is still at 75m sales and still active despite being alongside it's successor for 2 years now that's not really a point that backs you either as the platform is in its 8th year now plus Pokemon Sun and Moon, Fire Emblem Fates came out in year 6 and boosted sales even in it's 4th year Tomodachi came out alongside Smash, ORAS and a number of third party titles like Bravely Default and Yokai that help sales all of this goes against what you're saying.

Switch still has plenty potential titles in future, Paper Mario, M&L, Tomodachi, Monolith's two projects, Pokemon Gen Remake, Pikmin etc... these would do a lot more for sales than a pro model.

Zelda averages 4-5m BOTW on NS has sold 12m despite also being on WiiU which if we add the last know total of that version brings the total to 14.7m if we go from the higher end of the series average that's 9.7m new customers and people before it's release were using your argument on how Zelda fans would already have a Wii U. Another case point is Sun and Moon still sold a tonne of hardware despite X and Y already being there.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 25 April 2019

Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

It outsold Switch which hasn't had a price cut and had most of it's major releases delayed, over the last 6 months however NS has been outselling it to the point it made up for a luke warm Q1 and Q2 this doesn't really back your point, 3DS is still at 75m sales and still active despite being alongside it's successor for 2 years now that's not really a point that backs you either as the platform is in its 8th year now plus Pokemon Sun and Moon, Fire Emblem Fates came out in year 6 and boosted sales even in it's 4th year Tomodachi came out alongside Smash, ORAS and a number of third party titles like Bravely Default and Yokai that help sales all of this goes against what you're saying.

Switch still has plenty potential titles in future, Paper Mario, M&L, Tomodachi, Monolith's two projects, Pokemon Gen Remake, Pikmin etc... these would do a lot more for sales than a pro model.

Zelda averages 4-5m BOTW on NS has sold 12m despite also being on WiiU which if we add the last know total of that version brings the total to 14.7m if we go from the higher end of the series average that's 9.7m new customers and people before it's release were using your argument on how Zelda fans would already have a Wii U. Another case point is Sun and Moon still sold a tonne of hardware despite X and Y already being there.

And Wii still had Zelda: Skyward Sword, Mario Galaxy 2, Wii Party, Xenoblade, and many other big titles in the 2nd half of its life cycle ... same thing with 3DS, the thing is you run into diminishing returns by about year 4 with most Nintendo systems because the fan base for those games in large part already has the system. 

3DS sold 7.27 million shipments the fiscal year Sun/Moon arrived, that's really not a monster boost and that was more likely due to Pokemon Go being such a phenomenon on mobile to boot.