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PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 27 Numbers Added

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 27 Numbers Added

Amnesia said:

These datas show that for 2019 the Switch is exploding only in Japan (+45-50%) and just having a noticable increase on other regions...I wonder if European and RotW numbers are not dramaticaly undertracked.

It makes sense that Japan is experiencing the biggest growth YoY. Seeing as how we're fresh off Let's Go and Smash Bros. in the holiday season + the lineup Nintendo has planned for 2019 is more focused on the Japanese market than the Western market. Yokai Watch 4, Super Mario Maker 2, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Dragon Quest XI, Pokemon Sword/Shield, and Animal Crossing are all going to have notable hardware boosts in Japan, especially the latter 2. 

As for the rest of the markets, NPD will show us just how much it is growing in the U.S. in a few days. Europe and the Rest of the World is the big question mar for sure. And since we don't have any consistent data figures like we do for the U.S. and Japan, we'll likely be stuck waiting for Nintendo to release their final figures for the Fiscal Year themselves at the end of April.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Around the Network
Amnesia said:

These datas show that for 2019 the Switch is exploding only in Japan (+45-50%) and just having a noticable increase on other regions...I wonder if European and RotW numbers are not dramaticaly undertracked.

We will at least know about the US soon with NPD, About the others, we'll have to wait until the next quarterly report to be sure, but I also think that the Switch is undertracked here.



Just posted the February NPD adjustments and all three systems were adjusted up!



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Well they are really going to destroy their 17M ship goal if VG sales is already giving it well above the 17M.

 

My guest is that they knew it, so they want to produce a positive surprise to make rebounce the share. Besides this, announcing 18M was very risky then if they would end at 17,8 or 17,9.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

(Lisa Loud impression)

According to my calculations, through 8 weeks of sales in 2018, the Sony PlayStation 4, Microsoft Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through approximately 14.402792%, 11.126118%, and 10.613112% of their final yearly totals, respectively. If those percentages hold for this year as well, all three systems will conclude 2019 with the following, respective totals:

PlayStation 4: 13,898,229

Xbox One: 5,048,292

Nintendo Switch: 20,819,134



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Around the Network

At the current pace of ~250k per week, Switch will finish the quarter with a total of ~3.5m. That's notably above Nintendo's shipment projection of ~2.5m, but if we go by VGC, Switch had a high level of stock left in the channel by the end of the holiday quarter. Therefore 3.5m in sell-through would result in shipments of around 3m units because retailers would be working toward a more appropriate level of stock for the slower months of the year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
At the current pace of ~250k per week, Switch will finish the quarter with a total of ~3.5m. That's notably above Nintendo's shipment projection of ~2.5m, but if we go by VGC, Switch had a high level of stock left in the channel by the end of the holiday quarter. Therefore 3.5m in sell-through would result in shipments of around 3m units because retailers would be working toward a more appropriate level of stock for the slower months of the year.

Non sens or I just don't know math anymore at all...That's the opposite of what you say : sales have almost eaten the 9,42M shipped my Nintendo

 

Plus, we are seeing now for no reason( no big new game, no price cut), a powerfull increase to a baseline at 250.000, from 200.000 last year, I would order actually more units in anticipation if I was a video game retailer.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
RolStoppable said:
At the current pace of ~250k per week, Switch will finish the quarter with a total of ~3.5m. That's notably above Nintendo's shipment projection of ~2.5m, but if we go by VGC, Switch had a high level of stock left in the channel by the end of the holiday quarter. Therefore 3.5m in sell-through would result in shipments of around 3m units because retailers would be working toward a more appropriate level of stock for the slower months of the year.

Non sens or I just don't know math anymore at all...That's the opposite of what you say : sales have almost eaten the 9,42M shipped my Nintendo

(...)

Plus, we are seeing now for no reason( no big new game, no price cut), a powerfull increase to a baseline at 250.000, from 200.000 last year, I would order actually more units in anticipation if I was a video game retailer.

LTD shipments by December 31st 2018 were 32.27m, sell-through according to VGC was 29.48m by December 29th 2018. Adding a couple of extra days of sell-through leaves a gap of more than 2.5m units, but Switch's stock level should be ~2m based on how much it sells per week and in how many countries the console is officially available in. Retailers tend to have stock that lasts them 6-8 weeks and they place new orders accordingly.

In order for shipments and sell-through to be equal for the current quarter, VGC's LTD estimate by the end of 2018 has to be wrong. Which is possible, but I said "if we go by VGC" and that means as much as "assuming that VGC's numbers are correct," so that's what the rest of my post goes with.

I see that you've been talking about fiscal year shipments as high as 18m, but that's not going to happen if VGC estimates are reasonably accurate. A note on forecasts: In the range that Switch sells, adjustments are made in increments of 0.5m, so Nintendo could have gone with 17.5m for their revised forecast. The reason why they adjusted down to 17.0m is that it looks really bad when a company can't even fulfill a revised forecast with only three months left in the fiscal year. Nintendo had to ask themselves if they are absolutely 100% sure that they can hit 3m in fiscal Q4 and they weren't confident that they could do it.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

Non sens or I just don't know math anymore at all...That's the opposite of what you say : sales have almost eaten the 9,42M shipped my Nintendo

(...)

Plus, we are seeing now for no reason( no big new game, no price cut), a powerfull increase to a baseline at 250.000, from 200.000 last year, I would order actually more units in anticipation if I was a video game retailer.

LTD shipments by December 31st 2018 were 32.27m, sell-through according to VGC was 29.48m by December 29th 2018. Adding a couple of extra days of sell-through leaves a gap of more than 2.5m units, but Switch's stock level should be ~2m based on how much it sells per week and in how many countries the console is officially available in. Retailers tend to have stock that lasts them 6-8 weeks and they place new orders accordingly.

In order for shipments and sell-through to be equal for the current quarter, VGC's LTD estimate by the end of 2018 has to be wrong. Which is possible, but I said "if we go by VGC" and that means as much as "assuming that VGC's numbers are correct," so that's what the rest of my post goes with.

I see that you've been talking about fiscal year shipments as high as 18m, but that's not going to happen if VGC estimates are reasonably accurate. A note on forecasts: In the range that Switch sells, adjustments are made in increments of 0.5m, so Nintendo could have gone with 17.5m for their revised forecast. The reason why they adjusted down to 17.0m is that it looks really bad when a company can't even fulfill a revised forecast with only three months left in the fiscal year. Nintendo had to ask themselves if they are absolutely 100% sure that they can hit 3m in fiscal Q4 and they weren't confident that they could do it.

Ok, it was a mistake to only look at the gap on Q3 2018 and not the entire 30 millions. Plus I have revised my numbers, there are more gap now between sold Q3 and ship Q3.

So Why here we have such a huge gap, but now we would pretend that for 2018, VGC's estimation would be so much better :

FY 2017 ship : 15,06

FY 2017 sales : 13,51

So what gap shall we expect now if projection of FY2018 sold gives us 17,08 (my projection), why before we had 1,55M and now it would be much less ?



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:

Ok, it was a mistake to only look at the gap on Q3 2018 and not the entire 30 millions. Plus I have revised my numbers, there are more gap now between sold Q3 and ship Q3.

So Why here we have such a huge gap, but now we would pretend that for 2018, VGC's estimation would be so much better :

FY 2017 ship : 15,06

FY 2017 sales : 13,51

So what gap shall we expect now if projection of FY2018 sold gives us 17,08 (my projection), why before we had 1,55M and now it would be much less ?

You are making the same mistake again. The proper comparison is always LTD sell-through vs. LTD shipments. The key point is that retailers tend to maintain a stock level that lasts them 6-8 weeks in order to be prepared for sudden surges in demand; if they ran out of consoles, a potential customer would do their business at a different store.

A console that sells 250k units per week worldwide will have a bigger gap between LTD sell-through and LTD shipments than a console that sells only 150k units per week. There are times when retailers over- or underestimate demand for a console, so the following fiscal quarter will see a correction due to retailer orders. VGC's estimates point to a slight overestimation, so for the current fiscal quarter sell-through can exceed shipments as retailers scale down the stock they have on shelves and in their warehouses.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club