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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

 

Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 24 30.00%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 13 16.25%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 21 26.25%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 10 12.50%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 5 6.25%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 7 8.75%
 
Total:80
Nate4Drake on 10 February 2019
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

Yep.  Hair, animation of vegetation, fluid animation/dynamics should be vastly improved in next gen, at least this is my hope.

 I posted this on second page, but it was missed.

""Let's take XBox One base model and XBox One X as examples.    The biggest difference between the two is the GPU and Ram. The CPUs are quiet similar, not a big difference, apart from some optimizations and clock speed.   So what do we have in the end ?  The "core" of the game is the same, they play "exactly" the same(mechanics), also physics, AI, animations, system collision are the same.  The graphics, IQ and frame rate on the other hand see the biggest jump from the base model to X model, almost night and day.  So, basicly,   when 2 SKUs have similar CPU performance and dramatic differences in GPU and memory speed, Scalability is mostly in the graphics/IQ/frame rate department right ? Now, what if 2 SKUs have also a dramatic difference in CPU performance? How scalability can work in areas such as physics, animations, system collision, interactions with the environment, AI and game-play mechanics ? How much more complex is "scalability" in those areas ?  Can this be taken into account by the developers, is it feasible, or too complex and costy for the majority of developers ?

 In few words, it is a waste to have 2 SKUs with dramatic differences in CPU/GPU and RAM, or Devs might really take advantage of the more powerful SKU with the right development Kit and advanced scalability ?

 Any thoughts ?""

 In case the Premium Model(if we will have one), is significally more powerful than the Base model, and this should be the case, can "scalability" be used also for extra animations, better animations for hair, vegetation and fluid dynamics ?  



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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Pemalite on 10 February 2019
CGI-Quality said:


PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

I am thinking a single Zen 2 CCX/Chiplet for the CPU. So probably around 8 cores, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 6 cores.
They will likely reserve a couple for the OS/Background tasks as well, so 8 might be more fitting.

We can't forget about AMDAHLS Law either.

But a Quad-Core Zen is still going to be a catastrophic upgrade over the 8-core Jaguars whichever way you go about it.

Nate4Drake said:

 I posted this on second page, but it was missed.

""Let's take XBox One base model and XBox One X as examples.    The biggest difference between the two is the GPU and Ram. The CPUs are quiet similar, not a big difference, apart from some optimizations and clock speed.   ""

 

Well. The Xbox One X's CPU is derived from the Xbox One's CPU, so there was never going to be dramatic differences between the two.
But the Xbox One X's CPU did learn a few new tricks... And many API functions were offloaded from the CPU and onto the GPU's command processor so that the CPU wasn't tasked with as much work.

So there is actually larger CPU gains than the raw numbers might otherwise imply.

CGI-Quality said:

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

We are also on the cusp of next generation mechanical hard drives, the hard drive segment has stagnated in recent years... But that's changing.

Expect mechanical disks with 500MB/s sustained reads... With massive improvements in capacity. - So the need to jump over to solid state isn't there for all market segments just yet.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Cerebralbore101 on 10 February 2019
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

This^

People just keep asking for better graphics without realizing how quickly these things can add up. Oh, you'd like trees with zero alphamapping on the leaves/branches? Every part of that tree has to be 3D modeled now? Ok then, get ready for a massive increase in hardware needs. 

Also, I think you pretty much nailed the hardware of the PS5/XB2 launch models. A Pro/X version of either of those, two years after launch, would be great. 



Pemalite on 10 February 2019

I just need to reference the time when people thought the WiiU was going to have a Radeon 4850 class GPU... Or the Switch was going to be based on a powerful AMD APU... Or the time when the Xbox One X was going to have a Ryzen CPU... And there was so many reasons why none of that was going to happen... Despite "leaks" and "Hints".

Just be realistic is basically what me and CGI are asking for, it's one thing to hope for the best, it's another to expect it... The PC hardware market just hasn't significantly moved forwards from the hardware in the Xbox One X in regards to price/performance... And that will impact the next-gen consoles.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Cerebralbore101 on 10 February 2019

BraLoD said: 

Long gone are the days of PS3 $599 disaster reveal, nowdays $499 for a very wanted piece of tech is nothing.

That $599 would cost $746.10 in today's money. The 360's more expensive launch SKU of $399 would cost $513.01 in today's money. If anything consoles have gotten cheaper since then. Honestly I'd like to see a $500 PS5 with great specs. Sony will probably just play it safe with a $400 model, and then offer the Pro version in two years. 



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Bofferbrauer2 on 10 February 2019
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

20GB would be a very weird number and would need a weird memory connection. 24GB or 32GB are much more logical and normal. 6TB HDDs already cost about 200$, and both Sony and Microsoft had been very thrifty this gen about that (1GB still tops in normal versions). I'm actually more expecting just 2GB, though 3-4GB would be nice. But I don't think they will release a premium console at launch, simply because that one would fall into the same problem as the base console: limited TDP budget. So unless they make the case quite a bit bigger to allow for bigger fans and cooling elements that limitation will still be very similar.

Also, don't expect more than 8 cores, the consoles need to use most of their TDP budget on the GPU. A stronger CPU means less TDP budget left for the GPU - and to get enough distance between themselves and the X1X, the GPUs need all the TDP budget they can get. At 3Ghz 6 (with HT) or 8 (with or without HT) cores would be plenty already for the consoles.

CGI-Quality said: 


As for the Xbox One X selling better than the XBO, I've not heard anything like that. It is the 'S' model that brings in most of those sales, as I understand it (which is also secondary, given Microsoft doesn't release any specifics). 

Have a look into the NPD prediction thread where I compile Symbios' numbers into market share of the different versions, and so far the X is very much outselling the S (4-5 to 1 in fact) Though the X Fallout 76 bundle is on sale right now, the X had been if front even before that sale started.

On PS4 side on the other hand, the Slim is still outselling the Pro, though the latter is also creeping closer and closer to the 50% mark

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 10 February 2019

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

TranceformerFX on 10 February 2019

You guys expecting next gen consoles to have 32 GB's of RAM are going to be REALLY disappointed... Those kind of expectations aren't even remotely realistic...

It'll be 16 GB's and there won't be anything wrong with that. Why? Because I'm willing to bet 90% of the people expecting 32 GB RAM don't even have 4K HDR TV's.....



DonFerrari on 10 February 2019
BraLoD said:
CGI-Quality said:

Nah, I don't care for bets. I just know trends and what the market desires. $499 base consoles isn't something to expect, regardless of the performance of the X1X (which merely prolonged the life of the Xbox One). There wasn't a sudden explosion of sales that pushed it to any unprecedented heights and next gen premium consoles won't either. 

I'm not found of bets either.

It just doesn't make sense to keep on 400 when they can push without a single problem nowdays.

They are there to make money, with 500 they are able to do more/lose less, and they'll definitely go that way, same for MS.

Regardless of XBX being an upgrade, the fact its selling better than the XBO for that price shows the market already fully accept it. Also does the surge of smartphones prices as I mentioned.

Long gone are the days of PS3 $599 disaster reveal, nowdays $499 for a very wanted piece of tech is nothing.

There is not a single reason for they to keep on 399, unless they want to REALLY bleed money to screw MS, which they don't need at all.

Anyway, want to make a bet without consequences then?

Whoever is right just need to come to the other to say he was right.

As much as I would love to have the most Sony could pump on a 599 console, Market really is much bigger and viable at 399.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 10 February 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

20GB would be a very weird number and would need a weird memory connection. 24GB or 32GB are much more logical and normal. 6TB HDDs already cost about 200$, and both Sony and Microsoft had been very thrifty this gen about that (1GB still tops in normal versions). I'm actually more expecting just 2GB, though 3-4GB would be nice. But I don't think they will release a premium console at launch, simply because that one would fall into the same problem as the base console: limited TDP budget. So unless they make the case quite a bit bigger to allow for bigger fans and cooling elements that limitation will still be very similar.

Also, don't expect more than 8 cores, the consoles need to use most of their TDP budget on the GPU. A stronger CPU means less TDP budget left for the GPU - and to get enough distance between themselves and the X1X, the GPUs need all the TDP budget they can get. At 3Ghz 6 (with HT) or 8 (with or without HT) cores would be plenty already for the consoles.

CGI-Quality said: 


As for the Xbox One X selling better than the XBO, I've not heard anything like that. It is the 'S' model that brings in most of those sales, as I understand it (which is also secondary, given Microsoft doesn't release any specifics). 

Have a look into the NPD prediction thread where I compile Symbios' numbers into market share of the different versions, and so far the X is very much outselling the S (4-5 to 1 in fact) Though the X Fallout 76 bundle is on sale right now, the X had been if front even before that sale started.

On PS4 side on the other hand, the Slim is still outselling the Pro, though the latter is also creeping closer and closer to the 50% mark

I doubt very much that 80% of sales of Xbox are X1, and 50% of PS4 is Pro. If that were anywhere near truth the manufacturers would have divulged such good news.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

thismeintiel on 10 February 2019
Otter said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Do we actually have figures of how well the PS4 Pro is selling versus X1X? I'm not saying you're lying I just don't see numbers around.

And again, the PS4 Pro should be selling better given its the more popular platform. I would imagine many PS4 Pro's sold are people upgrading. But again, I feel the PS4 Pro was half baked simply because Sony wanted to hit $399, its not a big enough upgrade. Some of the Pro games just hit 1080p, that's not impressive.

Ace Combat 7 runs at 1080p on the Xbox One X and there are plenty of Xbox One X games with the exact same pixel count as Pro...It doesn't matter the power of the platform if developers don't want to  optimise or decide to optimise for things outside of resolution. 

I think Pro just needed to be a tad more balanced so we wouldn't see so games like No Mans Sky running slightly worse on the Pro version at 1440p vs the base system 108op. I don't think we've seen this yet with X1X

There was no need to do more with the Pro, though.  While MS has a completely different GPU in it, Sony took the GPU they already had and doubled it.  It allowed them to more than double the performance for a cheaper price, meaning they are most likely making more on the Pro than MS is making on the X.  Selling more of them, too. Remember, these are just mid-gen upgrades.  There job is really just to provide an option for early adopters who wanted a more powerful PS4/XBO, but will most likely move on to next gen much sooner than most.  So, they will be relevant for far less time than the OG systems, and sell a lot less. 

If the PS5 is B/C with the PS4, than the Pro pretty much becomes obsolete, as I'm sure it will offer the same upgrades and will probably be only $100 or so more than the Pro.  The OG PS4 will continue to sell to people with less disposable income, since it will be $200-$250 less than the PS5 and will still receive cross-gen games for the first year or two.  In other words, there wasn't really any reason too spend so much money on R&D and the chipset, if it was just going to sell to a small subset of people for 3-4 years.  MS only did so to have the crown of most powerful system, which really didn't improve their position.

CGI-Quality said:
BraLoD said:

4TB HDs? Nah, they'll start with 2TB (PS4 was 500gb for years with 50gb games mandatory installs).

Will probably have faster CPUs as well, and I fully expect 32GB of RAM (At least 24 if they chose to save the 32 for the upgrade, either way, it'll reach 32 this next generation).

Also, they'll start at 499, not 399.

There is no reason to sell for that low anymore, with people being used to pay a lot more yearly on smartphones and the way XBX was already going for 499 years before them and that was ok.

Gen 9 starts at 499, for both PS5 and XB4.

Look foward to machines a bit juicier than you are right now.

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

And no, $499 will not be the base price. It'll be $399 as I noted, with higher prices for a potential premium model. Aiming for affordability will take precedence over premium features, especially at launch.

I agree with your prediction of 16GB, not 32GB, and Sony aiming for $399.  However, I see very little chance of them putting in a 4TB HDD.  Sony is going to be spending a bunch of money on the other internals (Zen+/2, new Navi tech, 16 GDDR6 + (possibly) 4 GB DDR4 for the OS, maybe better cooling solution), I think they are going to try cutting costs where they can.  I think 2TB is more likely.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to get away with just 1TB, at least in the beginning.