PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

[Bofferbrauer2]

CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

20GB would be a very weird number and would need a weird memory connection. 24GB or 32GB are much more logical and normal. 6TB HDDs already cost about 200$, and both Sony and Microsoft had been very thrifty this gen about that (1GB still tops in normal versions). I'm actually more expecting just 2GB, though 3-4GB would be nice. But I don't think they will release a premium console at launch, simply because that one would fall into the same problem as the base console: limited TDP budget. So unless they make the case quite a bit bigger to allow for bigger fans and cooling elements that limitation will still be very similar.

Also, don't expect more than 8 cores, the consoles need to use most of their TDP budget on the GPU. A stronger CPU means less TDP budget left for the GPU - and to get enough distance between themselves and the X1X, the GPUs need all the TDP budget they can get. At 3Ghz 6 (with HT) or 8 (with or without HT) cores would be plenty already for the consoles.

CGI-Quality said: 

As for the Xbox One X selling better than the XBO, I've not heard anything like that. It is the 'S' model that brings in most of those sales, as I understand it (which is also secondary, given Microsoft doesn't release any specifics). 

Have a look into the NPD prediction thread where I compile Symbios' numbers into market share of the different versions, and so far the X is very much outselling the S (4-5 to 1 in fact) Though the X Fallout 76 bundle is on sale right now, the X had been if front even before that sale started.

On PS4 side on the other hand, the Slim is still outselling the Pro, though the latter is also creeping closer and closer to the 50% mark

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 10 February 2019