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How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

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Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98

We're long overdue for Animal Crossing Switch; it's been over 8 years since the last main entry. If the timing is right and both of these games make it out this year, I think Nintendo could pull off 21m-22m.



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I went with 18million.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.

And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.

 

 

And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.

And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018). 

 

But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with  games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.

But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.

"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

Last edited by colafitte - on 04 February 2019

Main Pokemon + Switch revision = 22M



colafitte said: 

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Here are the sales for the relevant 3DS titles:

Pokemon X/Y - 16.37M
Pokemon Sun/Moon - 16.14M
Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire - 14.17M

Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 12.10M
Super Smash Bros for 3DS - 9.45M

Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 5.75M
Fire Emblem Fates - 2.85M
Mario Party: Island Tour - 2.68M

On Nintendo's previous handheld, Animal Crossing was bigger than Smash and both Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem were individually bigger than Mario Party, so it's strange how confident you are that 2018's lineup has more selling potential than 2019's. Unless you think that Pokemon Let's Go will sell more than Pokemon Gen 8, but I don't think even the most desperate detractors would argue something like that.

I'm very curious: How much do you think 2019's games will have shipped by the end of the year? In particular, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses.



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colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018). 

 

But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with  games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.

But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.

"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

Game freak has said many times now that Pokémon will launch in late 2019



colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018). 

 

But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with  games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.

But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.

"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

 

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

You wrote that I said "there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3", while I was always saying I expecting around 10m. Yeah, I also did said 18m minimum, I will miss it for 1m, big deal. Yeah, I was convinced that 20m is possible, not that Nintendo will dot that mark definitely. I don't backpadall nothing, I stand by things I said, I was saying around 10m in Q3 and 3m+ in Q4, and that will mean Switch will do minimum 18m+, and that around 11m in Q3 and Q4 is possible and that can hit 20m. Like I wrote, Q3 is around expected, but forecasted Q4 is less than expected.

Pokemon Gen 8 + Animal Crossing can easily sell more than Smash Bros + Pokemon Lets Go and to be even bigger system seller games, but its not point only about those two games, point is that Switch had lower than expected sales from April until September (so two quarters) because it didnt had system seller game until November didnt had good enough library of games (Labo, Mario Tennis and Octopath Traveler were only new exclusive games in 6 months). Like I wrote before (and you did ignored that my post with clear facts), just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE and that was years first Direct that Switch this year yet to have. More about that in this thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238576&page=1

You cant know how much boost first price cut can gave, and its not point only boost from price cut.

 

Broken clock can be right two times on day, you were more right about hardware sales than I but you were quite wrong when comes to software sales (for Smash and Pokemon). And yes, when you can say something like: "If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", you dont know what are you talking about.

You again show you dont know what are you talking about, why all best selling consoles (PS2, DS, PS4, Wii and PS1) had price cuts in most cases in 2nd year on market? Because Sony and Nintendo wanted even better sales than they were before price cut or because production costs were down so they could maintain same profit margin despite price cut. Again, its not point only about price cut, its point about revision also (espacily if we talk about $200 price point revision) and stronger lineup of games, so combination of all those things. Nintendo didnt want to cut price in 2018. because it was too early and/or because revision is coming in 2019. every console had price cut latest in 3. year on market and 90% of them before end of 2. year on market.

 

We are deffinatly getting low price revision this year and very possible price cut for current Switch model (or in worst case bundle with one game at same price point).

We talking about FY sales, and 2019. FY starts on April 1., you dont know even full lineup even for April not to mention full quarter. Despite we dont know full April releases, games that are currently confirmed for April are: Mortal Kombat 11, Dragon Ball Heroes, Final Fantasy X/X-2, Final Fantasy XII, Dragon’s Dogma, Darksiders..much stronger lineup of games than in 1st 3 months of this years combined or than in 1st 3 months of last year combined. This clearly shows that Nintendo dont care too much about FY 2018 Q4 but they want very strong start of FY 2019. Actualy all games Switch that are already announced for 2019. are last week reconfirmed like 2019. releases, and Nintendo said there will not be delays, they also said they have more announced games for 2019. (offcourse they have, they will not talk about hole FY 2019. lineup before FY 2019. even started).

3DS will be dead soon and Switch will be only their platform moving forward, they want Switch to much bigger than in its, thats why like rumors saying we are getting low price point Switch Mini that will be focused on handheld play, so to reach lower price point on market also.

 

I get your opinnion, but it based on some wrong things like that 2019. lineup will not be stronger than 2018. or that you dont understand how price cuts works and what are all points of price cuts (its not only when consoles is not selling like expected).

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 04 February 2019

MasonADC said:
colafitte said:

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

Game freak has said many times now that Pokémon will launch in late 2019

I'm not saying i am not expecting the game this year, in fact i do,  i only stated that still needs to be confirmed with a name and a date. It won't be the first game, even from Nintendo, getting delayed in similar fashion.

StarDoor said:
colafitte said: 

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Here are the sales for the relevant 3DS titles:

Pokemon X/Y - 16.37M
Pokemon Sun/Moon - 16.14M
Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire - 14.17M

Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 12.10M
Super Smash Bros for 3DS - 9.45M

Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 5.75M
Fire Emblem Fates - 2.85M
Mario Party: Island Tour - 2.68M

On Nintendo's previous handheld, Animal Crossing was bigger than Smash and both Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem were individually bigger than Mario Party, so it's strange how confident you are that 2018's lineup has more selling potential than 2019's. Unless you think that Pokemon Let's Go will sell more than Pokemon Gen 8, but I don't think even the most desperate detractors would argue something like that.

I'm very curious: How much do you think 2019's games will have shipped by the end of the year? In particular, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses.

I don't know how much all thsee games will sell combined, but if you ask me those individually ....let me think....

Just in 2019 (shipment numbers):

Animal Crossing, no more than 10M (more difficult to know because it depends on when it launch)

Pokemon Gen 8 around 12-15M (if it launch in November)

Luigi's Mansion less than 5M but getting close

Fire Emblem just around 2M.

 

But some of these game depends on when they launch, so it's difficult to know exactly. If i knew the dates i would be more specific.



Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!. 

I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.

And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.

 

How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.

Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.

In summary:

No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019

$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).

Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.

Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.

 

This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.

You wrote that I said "there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3", while I was always saying I expecting around 10m. Yeah, I also did said 18m minimum, I will miss it for 1m, big deal. Yeah, I was convinced that 20m is possible, not that Nintendo will dot that mark definitely. I don't backpadall nothing, I stand by things I said, I was saying around 10m in Q3 and 3m+ in Q4, and that will mean Switch will do minimum 18m+, and that around 11m in Q3 and Q4 is possible and that can hit 20m. Like I wrote, Q3 is around expected, but forecasted Q4 is less than expected.

Pokemon Gen 8 + Animal Crossing can easily sell more than Smash Bros + Pokemon Lets Go and to be even bigger system seller games, but its not point only about those two games, point is that Switch had lower than expected sales from April until September (so two quarters) because it didnt had system seller game until November didnt had good enough library of games (Labo, Mario Tennis and Octopath Traveler were only new exclusive games in 6 months). Like I wrote before (and you did ignored that my post with clear facts), just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE and that was years first Direct that Switch this year yet to have. More about that in this thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238576&page=1

You cant know how much boost first price cut can gave, and its not point only boost from price cut.

 

Broken clock can be right two times on day, you were more right about hardware sales than I but you were quite wrong when comes to software sales (for Smash and Pokemon). And yes, when you can say something like: "If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", you dont know what are you talking about.

You again show you dont know what are you talking about, why all best selling consoles (PS2, DS, PS4, Wii and PS1) had price cuts in most cases in 2nd year on market? Because Sony and Nintendo wanted even better sales than they were before price cut or because production costs were down so they could maintain same profit margin despite price cut. Again, its not point only about price cut, its point about revision also (espacily if we talk about $200 price point revision) and stronger lineup of games, so combination of all those things. Nintendo didnt want to cut price in 2018. because it was too early and/or because revision is coming in 2019. every console had price cut latest in 3. year on market and 90% of them before end of 2. year on market.

 

We are deffinatly getting low price revision this year and very possible price cut for current Switch model (or in worst case bundle with one game at same price point).

We talking about FY sales, and 2019. FY starts on April 1., you dont know even full lineup even for April not to mention full quarter. Despite we dont know full April releases, games that are currently confirmed for April are: Mortal Kombat 11, Dragon Ball Heroes, Final Fantasy X/X-2, Final Fantasy XII, Dragon’s Dogma, Darksiders..much stronger lineup of games than in 1st 3 months of this years combined or than in 1st 3 months of last year combined. This clearly shows that Nintendo dont care too much about FY 2018 Q4 but they want very strong start of FY 2019. Actualy all games Switch that are already announced for 2019. are confirmed like 2019. releases, and Nintendo said there will not be delays, they also said they have more announced games for 2019. (offcourse they have, they will not talk about hole FY 2019. lineup before FY 2019. even started).

3DS will be dead soon and Switch will be only their platform moving forward, they want Switch to much bigger than in its, thats why like rumors saying we are getting low price point Switch Mini that will be focused on handheld play, so to reach lower price point on market also.

 

I get your opinnion, but it based on some wrong things like that 2019. lineup will not be stronger than 2018. or that you dont understand how price cuts works and what are all points of price cuts (its not only when consoles is not selling like expected).

We had a lot of discussions about Switch sales for weeks last year, and most of the times you said 12-13M shipped was too low. Why then we spent so many discussions like this one today if we agreed on the same number then? You said 18-20M (and you expected more 19M than 18M), a range way bigger than my prediction that always was 17-18M (when i said multiple times i expected more close to 17M), and despite all of that, you was wrong and i was right. You never accepted back then me saying Switch was going to ship 9M like you don't accept now me saying that Switch is going to ship 17M. It was the same then as is now. You used the same kind of words you are using now.

You keep repeating i was wrong on Pokemon Let's go sales and that's wrong too. I always said i expected 10M in 2018 and i was right. As for Smash Bros, i expected  more than 4M 1st week (4-4'5M to be specific) and 8'5M sold by the end of the month. Do you know exactly how much it sold??, because i don't. I probably was a little below but not that much as you want to say. Smash shipping 12M could mean 10M sold i guess, but that's the closest we can get to know exact sales. That's the most i've been wrong with my predictions this holidays.

And thanks by the way to say i was right on Spiderman sales, Pokemon Let's Go sales, PS4 sales, XBO sales (according to VGC), Switch sales (according to VGC) and shipments just by pure luck.....That hurt me. I must be the luckiest person ever then. Just because i failed a prediction in the game that was voted the most surprising in terms of sales in this very site, now i have to drop my convictions about my predictions....mmmm no sir.

You have to start accepting i have different opinions than you, and after being right most of the last ones, i expected at least some improvement in respecting my opinion, but seems that we're again at the same spot as before. I will apreciate if you lowered your condescending tone about me. It's almost insulting. Stop insinuating i'm stupid please. 

I gave my opinion in this thread, you quote me, and i answered you, multiple times. I don't know how much you want from me. It seems you want me to say what you want and if there is something i don't say is because i'm missing the point or because i don't know what i'm talking about, and the only reason is because i just don't want to be so specific about each game Switch has this year. I know them all, and despite all of that, ports and indies are not going to help Switch sales, period.  If what you want from me is me changing my opinion is not going to happen just because the reasons you are mentioning. I'm not convinced, that's all.

I respect your opinion and everyone elses here. Some day i'm going to be wrong (100% happening, it's inevitable), or maybe very wrong in what i predict. When that happens, don't worry, i will be there and i will admit my mistakes. I have no problems at all. Until then i will keep my opinion on this.



colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

You wrote that I said "there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3", while I was always saying I expecting around 10m. Yeah, I also did said 18m minimum, I will miss it for 1m, big deal. Yeah, I was convinced that 20m is possible, not that Nintendo will dot that mark definitely. I don't backpadall nothing, I stand by things I said, I was saying around 10m in Q3 and 3m+ in Q4, and that will mean Switch will do minimum 18m+, and that around 11m in Q3 and Q4 is possible and that can hit 20m. Like I wrote, Q3 is around expected, but forecasted Q4 is less than expected.

Pokemon Gen 8 + Animal Crossing can easily sell more than Smash Bros + Pokemon Lets Go and to be even bigger system seller games, but its not point only about those two games, point is that Switch had lower than expected sales from April until September (so two quarters) because it didnt had system seller game until November didnt had good enough library of games (Labo, Mario Tennis and Octopath Traveler were only new exclusive games in 6 months). Like I wrote before (and you did ignored that my post with clear facts), just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE and that was years first Direct that Switch this year yet to have. More about that in this thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238576&page=1

You cant know how much boost first price cut can gave, and its not point only boost from price cut.

 

Broken clock can be right two times on day, you were more right about hardware sales than I but you were quite wrong when comes to software sales (for Smash and Pokemon). And yes, when you can say something like: "If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", you dont know what are you talking about.

You again show you dont know what are you talking about, why all best selling consoles (PS2, DS, PS4, Wii and PS1) had price cuts in most cases in 2nd year on market? Because Sony and Nintendo wanted even better sales than they were before price cut or because production costs were down so they could maintain same profit margin despite price cut. Again, its not point only about price cut, its point about revision also (espacily if we talk about $200 price point revision) and stronger lineup of games, so combination of all those things. Nintendo didnt want to cut price in 2018. because it was too early and/or because revision is coming in 2019. every console had price cut latest in 3. year on market and 90% of them before end of 2. year on market.

 

We are deffinatly getting low price revision this year and very possible price cut for current Switch model (or in worst case bundle with one game at same price point).

We talking about FY sales, and 2019. FY starts on April 1., you dont know even full lineup even for April not to mention full quarter. Despite we dont know full April releases, games that are currently confirmed for April are: Mortal Kombat 11, Dragon Ball Heroes, Final Fantasy X/X-2, Final Fantasy XII, Dragon’s Dogma, Darksiders..much stronger lineup of games than in 1st 3 months of this years combined or than in 1st 3 months of last year combined. This clearly shows that Nintendo dont care too much about FY 2018 Q4 but they want very strong start of FY 2019. Actualy all games Switch that are already announced for 2019. are confirmed like 2019. releases, and Nintendo said there will not be delays, they also said they have more announced games for 2019. (offcourse they have, they will not talk about hole FY 2019. lineup before FY 2019. even started).

3DS will be dead soon and Switch will be only their platform moving forward, they want Switch to much bigger than in its, thats why like rumors saying we are getting low price point Switch Mini that will be focused on handheld play, so to reach lower price point on market also.

 

I get your opinnion, but it based on some wrong things like that 2019. lineup will not be stronger than 2018. or that you dont understand how price cuts works and what are all points of price cuts (its not only when consoles is not selling like expected).

We had a lot of discussions about Switch sales for weeks last year, and most of the times you said 12-13M shipped was too low. Why then we spent so many discussions like this one today if we agreed on the same number then? You said 18-20M (and you expected more 19M than 18M), a range way bigger than my prediction that always was 17-18M (when i said multiple times i expected more close to 17M), and despite all of that, you was wrong and i was right. You never accepted back then me saying Switch was going to ship 9M like you don't accept now me saying that Switch is going to ship 17M. It was the same then as is now. You used the same kind of words you are using now.

You keep repeating i was wrong on Pokemon Let's go sales and that's wrong too. I always said i expected 10M in 2018 and i was right. As for Smash Bros, i expected  more than 4M 1st week (4-4'5M to be specific) and 8'5M sold by the end of the month. Do you know exactly how much it sold??, because i don't. I probably was a little below but not that much as you want to say. Smash shipping 12M could mean 10M sold i guess, but that's the closest we can get to know exact sales. That's the most i've been wrong with my predictions this holidays.

And thanks by the way to say i was right on Spiderman sales, Pokemon Let's Go sales, PS4 sales, XBO sales (according to VGC), Switch sales (according to VGC) and shipments just by pure luck.....That hurt me. I must be the luckiest person ever then. Just because i failed a prediction in the game that was voted the most surprising in terms of sales in this very site, now i have to drop my convictions about my predictions....mmmm no sir.

You have to start accepting i have different opinions than you, and after being right most of the last ones, i expected at least some improvement in respecting my opinion, but seems that we're again at the same spot as before. I will apreciate if you lowered your condescending tone about me. It's almost insulting. Stop insinuating i'm stupid please. 

I gave my opinion in this thread, you quote me, and i answered you, multiple times. I don't know how much you want from me. It seems you want me to say what you want and if there is something i don't say is because i'm missing the point or because i don't know what i'm talking about, and the only reason is because i just don't want to be so specific about each game Switch has this year. I know them all, and despite all of that, ports and indies are not going to help Switch sales, period.  If what you want from me is me changing my opinion is not going to happen just because the reasons you are mentioning. I'm not convinced, that's all.

I respect your opinion and everyone elses here. Some day i'm going to be wrong (100% happening, it's inevitable), or maybe very wrong in what i predict. When that happens, don't worry, i will be there and i will admit my mistakes. I have no problems at all. Until then i will keep my opinion on this.

What 12-13m shipped? I was pretty clear, I was expecting 18-19m first, and later when sales numbers start apearing (early Janaury) I said that even 20m is possible and I start expecting 19m+. Also fact is that I said Switch will ship around 10m in Q3, guess what, Switch shipped 9.4m in Q3. But like I wrote, what I did expect is that Q4 will better than last year, last year Q4 was 2.9m, and I said this FY will be minimum 3m+, and Nintendo now forecasted 2.5m for Q4. My low estimate was Q3 around 10m and Q4 around 3m+, and that would put Switch at least 18m+ (because Switch done 5.1m in Q1 + Q2), later I start saying that I expect around 10-11m for Q3 and around 4m for Q4. I was wrong, I already addmit that, its not shame to be wrong, its shame to not admit that. On other hand you missed both Pokemon and Smash Bros for couple of millions.

I am pretty sure you said Pokemon will be below 10m and even below Smash Bros. Predicting sold numbers for games is pointless, because only official numbers we getting at end are are shipped numbers from Nintendo, and you cant prove you sales prediction in any case. So yeah, you were wrong for both Smash and Pokemon sales.

I really dont care about your predictions about other platforms, we talking here about Nintendo. Actualy I dont care too much about prediction numbers, I more care based on what you making your predictions.

I respect your opinion, but if keep telling me you think that 2019. lineup will not be stronger than 2018. lineup, than tell me why think like that, I gave you very clear examples and good arguments that very clearly shows in any case that 2019. will be stronger than 2018. and you still keep ignoring that. But when comes to your argument for price cut, "If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", that clealy show you dont  know what you talking about when comes to  price cuts, I am sry if that offends you but thats true.