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Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

I have refreshed every values with last adjustments for the 2 years.

This time I have added an offset of 0,8M in transit on March 31st.

To get this baseline of 244.000 for regular weeks I have taken the average of the same period in previous year and multiplied by 1.24.

 



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Smash Ultimate should pass 20 million lifetime, a milestone very few games can even hope to sniff.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 February 2019

I have the feeling that Nintendo just “gave up” on this quarter. After nsmbu deluxe, it is Yoshi’s turn at the end of the quarter.



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Pavolink said:
I have the feeling that Nintendo just “gave up” on this quarter. After nsmbu deluxe, it is Yoshi’s turn at the end of the quarter.

Yeah I get the same impression. In fact they almost seem to have given up on the entire first half of the year tbh, there's Yoshi and Fire Emblem but just those two are not enough to drive momentum over six months. I hope this doesn't signal a trend of Nintendo turning into Microsoft and only really trying during the end of year quarter while letting the engine idle from January to October like they did last year.



Asriel said:


It's obvious Labo has been a flop and not driven hardware sales in anyway whatsoever. It was clear Nintendo anticipated Labo helping drive Switch up to 20 million units.

The lesson to Nintendo should be to pace their releases consistently.

Not an invalid position, but don't you think you were right when you said Nintendo probably had higher expectations for Labo? If so, and it performed as we presume Nintendo expected, they would largely have taken your advice, they just didn't execute their plan well.

curl-6 said:

Well, at this stage it looks like 3DS is not going to reach the lifetime sales of the GBA or PSP, leaving it as as Nintendo's lowest selling portable and falling short of even the loser of last gen's portable war.

A fair fate for a platform that had some good software, but was ultimately not good hardware.

RolStoppable said:

For the hardware revision I expect smaller size and better battery life

Is this physically possible? I haven't been keeping super up to date with improvements in battery life technology, but I haven't heard of any recent breakthroughs, although I' cautiously optimistic about a few of the projects being touted.

colafitte said:

I've been called a hater, biased, lowballer, pessimistic, sony fanboy, to have an agenda, and a few other things that i don't remember now for months but I guess i was living in the right dimension after all.....

To all of you that called me that...THANK YOU.

You're...welcome? I hope you haven't been nursing some kind of internet gru-

colafitte said:

I just want to remember a few things....

back in December 15:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8938973

back in January 03:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8948254

 

I guess nobody is going to apologize or admit defeat, and i won't put names, but you know who you are...

Nevermind.

Nautilus said:

With Aces being the best selling Mario Tennis ever, hopefully Nintendo pays more attention to Camelot.I dont know is Camelot is fully owned by Nintendo(and thus an internal studio), but even if they arent, I really want Nintendo to pay more attention to them and either give them a bigger budget to make their game, or invest in them for them to have a bigger budget and bigger teams.I want a new Golden Sun dammit!

And gotta say, Im slightly dissapointed in Octopath sales.Dont get me wrong, they are great.The game is basically at 1.3 million right now.But I honestly expected for it to have sold more than 1.5 million by now, and eventually sold a bit more than XC 2 by the end of its life.1.5 million is basically garanteed at this point and 2 million is still on the table though, so if Square dosent cheap out with the sequel like they did with Bravely Default, we could be seeing a great new franchise being born.

I believe Camelot is second party, not first, i.e.  not owned by Nintendo. As for Octopath, I believe you were later correct that these numbers exclude Japan, as the game was published by Square there. That said, I'm not sure it lit Japan on fire.

PwerlvlAmy said:

  You have to wonder if Nintendo just doesn't know how to keep momentum anymore when they have it.

Oh, I'd say we have more than enough data by now to not have to wonder.



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With Nintendo's revised forecast, I think it might be time to reevaluate the Switch's growth potential in it's later years ...

Regardless of the booming Switch software sales, it is not correlating as strongly with their previous handheld's hardware sales. Switch owners are already ~18% more likely to own another first party game this early in it's life compared to 3DS owners of which the platform is nearing the end of it's life despite the fact that Nintendo has yet to release a couple of their more important franchises on the Switch and they've also released less entries thus far with existing franchises on the Switch compared to the 3DS. This seems to suggest that software sales are mainly being driven by growing interest from regular Nintendo customers themselves rather than new and unique hardware customers so the growing interest in Nintendo's franchises seems to be less organic since we're seeing a significant overlap of interests between Nintendo's franchises rather than growing interest from unique hardware customers ...

With much of their key franchises being released, there is still much more farther progress to be made in hardware sales. Without changing the fundamental such as a price cut it could get difficult to make inroads because a back catalog of released games can only maintain a platform for so long once they reach their saturation point at a certain price point ...



noname2200 said:

A fair fate for a platform that had some good software, but was ultimately not good hardware.

3DS alongside Vita, are platforms that recived biggest hit from phone/tablet gaming, and thats one of main reasons, why 3DS will be worst selling Nintendo handheld and while Vita done so bad.



noname2200 said: 
RolStoppable said:

For the hardware revision I expect smaller size and better battery life

Is this physically possible? I haven't been keeping super up to date with improvements in battery life technology, but I haven't heard of any recent breakthroughs, although I' cautiously optimistic about a few of the projects being touted.

The technology of batteries isn't the only thing that can improve battery life. Power efficiency of the chipset matters too. You may have noticed that every game on the 3DS drained the battery at the same speed whereas on Switch the values can differ greatly from game to game. Enabled wi-fi cut battery life of the DS roughly in half, on the 3DS it was a reduction of about 25%, on Switch it's barely noticeable. Point is that battery life goes beyond the size of the battery itself.

That being said, I don't expect a big increase in battery life for a Switch revision, so not more than 1-1.5 additional hours.



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RolStoppable said:
noname2200 said: 

Is this physically possible? I haven't been keeping super up to date with improvements in battery life technology, but I haven't heard of any recent breakthroughs, although I' cautiously optimistic about a few of the projects being touted.

The technology of batteries isn't the only thing that can improve battery life. Power efficiency of the chipset matters too. You may have noticed that every game on the 3DS drained the battery at the same speed whereas on Switch the values can differ greatly from game to game. Enabled wi-fi cut battery life of the DS roughly in half, on the 3DS it was a reduction of about 25%, on Switch it's barely noticeable. Point is that battery life goes beyond the size of the battery itself.

That being said, I don't expect a big increase in battery life for a Switch revision, so not more than 1-1.5 additional hours.

Fair point, especially since much of the system is basically a 2015 NVidia project. I'd be interested in seeing how the engineers pull it off.



Miyamotoo said:
noname2200 said:

A fair fate for a platform that had some good software, but was ultimately not good hardware.

3DS alongside Vita, are platforms that recived biggest hit from phone/tablet gaming, and thats one of main reasons, why 3DS will be worst selling Nintendo handheld and while Vita done so bad.

3DS was also just pretty bad hardware. It was focused on a gimmick nobody ended up using in the long run, the lack of a second analogue stick was an absurd oversight, and the screen was of obscenely low quality.