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Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

This is the first time you have seen such minimal gaps? Here are comparable Nintendo platforms after 2nd post-launch holiday.

DS end 2006

Sold-34.62m

Shipped-35.61m

Difference-0.99m

 

Wii end 2008

Sold-43.70m

Shipped-44.96m

Difference-1.26m

 

3DS end 2012

Sold-26.05m

Shipped-27.73m

Difference-1.68m

 

Switch end 2018

Sold-30.22m

Shipped-32.27m

Difference-2.05m

I'm not sure if you have seen my edit in that post. But 2008 is an unfair comparison because Wii in those holidays was impossible to find. That's why i used as a more accurate data 2010 numbers, where like i explained to were 2'5M on shelves. The same can be said about DS in 2006. The thing is when you ship more than 8M in Q3.

The fact that Nintendo is conservative about Q4 is another clue that there's stiull a lot of stock left.

Check my edit where I added PS4.

End of 2015 had a 1.8 million difference based on Sony's official PR statement and their quarterly report and they shipped 8.4m that quarters and there was also no notable shortages. Why is 2.05m impossible for Switch?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

I'm not sure if you have seen my edit in that post. But 2008 is an unfair comparison because Wii in those holidays was impossible to find. That's why i used as a more accurate data 2010 numbers, where like i explained to were 2'5M on shelves. The same can be said about DS in 2006. The thing is when you ship more than 8M in Q3.

The fact that Nintendo is conservative about Q4 is another clue that there's stiull a lot of stock left.

Check my edit where I added PS4.

End of 2015 had a 1.8 million difference based on Sony's official PR statement and their quarterly report and they shipped 8.4m that quarters and there was also no notable shortages. Why is 2.05m impossible for Switch?

Edit: Now i see your bonus for PS4 in 2015. An "exception that confirms the rule"..... This is just a theory, i could be wrong, i'm just  going by my instintcs... I just don't believe Switch is so low on shelves after today news...

I'm not saying is impossible, just that i find it doubtful.



Only thing bad about any of this info we've gotten is the actual anemic line up for this year

On paper:

Daemon X Machina
Yoshi
Luigi's Mansion 3
Fire Emblem Three Houses
Pokemon Gen 8
Bayonetta 3
Animal Crossing
Town
SMT V

Sounds pretty damn amazing. But then we go to realistic based off what we know now

Daemon X Machina - No release window
Yoshi - End of March
Luigi's Mansion 3 - No release window
Fire Emblem Three Houses - Anywhere from April to June
Pokemon Gen 8 - Late 2019, possibly delayed due to Gamefreak saying they have issues deving for Switch)
Bayonetta 3 - No release window or year
Animal Crossing -No release window
Town - No release window
SMT V -No year,no window, does this still even exist?

With the bad news for MP4 getting the fan base down, lack of games early 2019, complete radio silence on all fronts from Nintendo(no communication,no directs). You have to wonder if Nintendo just doesn't know how to keep momentum anymore when they have it. This seems to be their achilles heel, they never can figure out how to maintain momentum and drop the ball.

Then full picture of games by month is looking like

January was:

NSMB Wii U Port - NSMB Deluxe
Remaster of last gen game - Vesperia
Lackluster Spin off game - Travis Strikes again
Dragon Marked For Death

Feb: (most are digital)

VRally 4
The Book Of UnWritten Tales 2
Away Journey To The Unexpected
Monster Energy Supercross
Dreamworks Dragons
Steins Gates Elite
Aragami
Trials Fusion


March:

Dead Or Alive Xtreme 3
Our World Is Ended
The Princess Guide
Xenon Racer
Yoshi's Crafted World

April:

Darksiders Remastered
FFX-X2
Dragons Dogma
Mortal Kombat 11
Final Fantasy 12
Super Dragon Ball Heroes

May:

Team Sonic Racing

June:

Crash Team Racing


So as we stand right now, Switch's next decent month for games wont be till April unless we get word otherwise.



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WhatATimeToBeAlive said:
Acevil said:

That's what I love about certain individuals that come troll the switch. They act like quick ly and think they are right because it didn't reach 20 million, when their prediction was originally much much lower at the start of it all. 

Are you talking about me, since I haven't ever made any prediction about Switch sales. I just found it funny that even though Pachter gets so much hate, this time it looks like he is the one who is going to be right.

See response below what I am referencing.

zorg1000 said:
WhatATimeToBeAlive said:

Are you talking about me, since I haven't ever made any prediction about Switch sales. I just found it funny that even though Pachter gets so much hate, this time it looks like he is the one who is going to be right.

Why are you ignoring that he originally said 8 million then 13 million before finally getting "right" with 16-17 million?



 

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Check my edit where I added PS4.

End of 2015 had a 1.8 million difference based on Sony's official PR statement and their quarterly report and they shipped 8.4m that quarters and there was also no notable shortages. Why is 2.05m impossible for Switch?

Edit: Now i see your bonus for PS4 in 2015. An "exception that confirms the rule"..... This is just a theory, i could be wrong, i'm just  going by my instintcs... I just don't believe Switch is so low on shelves after today news...

I'm not saying is impossible, just that i find it doubtful.

What about 3DS in 2011-2013 or Wii 2009 or DS 2008? All in that 1.5-2.5 million range.

 A ~2 million shipped vs sold difference isnt as uncommon as you are pretending.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Edit: Now i see your bonus for PS4 in 2015. An "exception that confirms the rule"..... This is just a theory, i could be wrong, i'm just  going by my instintcs... I just don't believe Switch is so low on shelves after today news...

I'm not saying is impossible, just that i find it doubtful.

What about 3DS in 2011-2013 or Wii 2009 or DS 2008? All in that 1.5-2.5 million range.

 A ~2 million shipped vs sold difference isnt as uncommon as you are pretending.

For Wii in 2009 i see 65'0M sold and 67'45M so around another 2'5M difference. DS in 2006-2009 was a phomenon like no other, so comparing Swith to DS on those years is unfair. That thing sold like anything seen before those years. As for 3DS...only 2011 had more than 8M shipped in that quarter (and i have to rememeber you, that Switch did shipped not only more than 8, but more than 9M) and was not the first holiday after the price cut for 3DS so a lot of people waited to buy the handheld after that?



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

What about 3DS in 2011-2013 or Wii 2009 or DS 2008? All in that 1.5-2.5 million range.

 A ~2 million shipped vs sold difference isnt as uncommon as you are pretending.

For Wii in 2009 i see 65'0M sold and 67'45M so around another 2'5M difference. DS in 2006-2009 was a phomenon like no other, so comparing Swith to DS on those years is unfair. That thing sold like anything seen before those years. As for 3DS...only 2011 had more than 8M shipped in that quarter (and i have to rememeber you, that Switch did shipped not only more than 8, but more than 9M) and was not the first holiday after the price cut for 3DS so a lot of people waited to buy the handheld after that?

So PS4 is an outlier, DS was a phenom and 3DS had a price cut........sounds like excuses.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DAAAMMMMMMNNNNNNN



zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

For Wii in 2009 i see 65'0M sold and 67'45M so around another 2'5M difference. DS in 2006-2009 was a phomenon like no other, so comparing Swith to DS on those years is unfair. That thing sold like anything seen before those years. As for 3DS...only 2011 had more than 8M shipped in that quarter (and i have to rememeber you, that Switch did shipped not only more than 8, but more than 9M) and was not the first holiday after the price cut for 3DS so a lot of people waited to buy the handheld after that?

So PS4 is an outlier, DS was a phenom and 3DS had a price cut........sounds like excuses.

Indeed they sound, i must admit. But that year for PS4 is the only one in PS4 history, DS was in fact a phenom like no other, especially during holiday season and 3DS sold a lot better after that price cut in August 2011 (and like PS4 in 2015 it was their only year where everything we say adds up).

That's why from data and experience, i think Switch performance in 2018 looks more like Wii 2009 and 2010 than those other ones. Or like PS4 last 2 years where they shipped more than 9M and there was more than 3M on shelves. I have more situations in my favor than yours. But ey, i could be wrong, i'm just chosing between options based only in a "feeling" i have. I can't prove nor use evidential data. I'm not saying is impossible. I just said i doubt it.

The shame is, that if Nintendo doesn't decide to announce sell through numbers worldwide we will never know....



forest-spirit said:
Marth said:
Attach rates
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 46.5%
Super Mario Odyssey: 42.6%
Smash Bros Ultimate: 37.4%
Breath of the Wild: 36.2%
Pokemon LetsGo: 31%
Splatoon 2: 25.6%
Super Mario Party: 16.4%
1-2-Switch: 8.9%

Wowza. I almost feel special for not owning Mario Kart, Smash Bros. or Pokémon.

Join us, forest-spirit. Gooble gobble, one of us, one of us