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Nintendo Switch sold 14.49 million from Apr-Dec 2018. Apr-18 - Mar-19 Forecast 17 million

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch sold 14.49 million from Apr-Dec 2018. Apr-18 - Mar-19 Forecast 17 million

Is it really shipped numbers and forecast?
On page 8 of the report it's written "(4) Consolidated sales units, number of new titles, and sales units forecast" as the title of the numbers we are talking about.
So is Nintendo forecasting 17M units sold by the end of march '19?
This is a bit confusing.

 

EDIT. If it's really 17M sold we could look at ~18.5M shipped, which is still below 20M



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Supermario28 said:

Is it really shipped numbers and forecast?
On page 8 of the report it's written "(4) Consolidated sales units, number of new titles, and sales units forecast" as the title of the numbers we are talking about.
So is Nintendo forecasting 17M units sold by the end of march '19?
This is a bit confusing.

 

EDIT. If it's really 17M sold we could look at ~18.5M shipped, which is still below 20M

Its always shipped.

When Nintendo (or any other publisher for that case) talks about sold they always mean "sold to retailers" unless they explicitly mention "to customers"



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Marth said:
Supermario28 said:

Is it really shipped numbers and forecast?
On page 8 of the report it's written "(4) Consolidated sales units, number of new titles, and sales units forecast" as the title of the numbers we are talking about.
So is Nintendo forecasting 17M units sold by the end of march '19?
This is a bit confusing.

 

EDIT. If it's really 17M sold we could look at ~18.5M shipped, which is still below 20M

Its always shipped.

When Nintendo (or any other publisher for that case) talks about sold they always mean "sold to retailers" unless they explicitly mention "to customers"

Oh ok thanks. That's what i didn't get



Switch Q3-2018/19 Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 9.42M(+30%) 7.24M 14.49M(+19%) 12.13M 32.27M 17.0M (20.0)
Software (units) 52.51M(+109%) 25.08M 94.64M(+100%) 47.10M 163.61M 110.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
3DSQ3-2018/19Q3-2017/18 LTD FY2018/19 LTD FY2017/18 Lifetime FY Forecast (Orig)
Hardware (units) 1.31M(-56%) 3.0M 2.31M(-61%) 5.86M 74.84M 2.6M (4.0)
Software (units) 4.81M(-72%) 17.43M 11.08M(-65%) 31.25M 375.97M 13.0M
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)

On point with my original prediction. To reach 20M we would need to see Y2Q4 DS numbers at this point (average of 400k per week, 5.5M Q4). Wii numbers would get Switch to 19M (4.5M) and PS4 to 18.5M (4M). In fact 17M says that Nintendo's betting on 3DS figures (2.5M), which is very safe. IMO, Switch will reach 18M mark, without breaking a sweat. 

Edit: that also tells us that they're not planning to release new SKU this quarter as that would boost sales by extra 1-2M (depends on when would it be released). 

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 31 January 2019

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It's all about keeping investors happy at this point. If they don't adjust, the blow will be hard when they just go under that number. If they do get over 17m, which they will, it will seems much better for investors (at least it will be way less panic worthy). It makes sense.



Taking into account the rapid life cycles of nintendo consoles, we will see the peak between this year and next year, and then begin the falls.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I just realized something, maybe Nintendo shifted their prediction to 17m because they believe that is a much easier goal to not only achieve but to also exceed (like say with sales of 18M) and has a more positive effect overall than forecasting 20m but being off by 2m.

That's a strange way of looking at it. It's like you think investors have Alzheimer's or are Trump stans.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I just realized something, maybe Nintendo shifted their prediction to 17m because they believe that is a much easier goal to not only achieve but to also exceed (like say with sales of 18M) and has a more positive effect overall than forecasting 20m but being off by 2m.

That's a strange way of looking at it. It's like you think investors have Alzheimer's or are Trump stans.

In Jan-Mar Quarter of 2018, Nintendo shipped 2.93 million and so far this financial year their non-holiday quarters have been less than stellar. 

So adding 2.93 to 14.49 million would have given them 17.4 million. and expecting them to hit 18 million meant that they have to beat last year results by 20%, which is not an easy thing to do especially if there is no major software release on the horizon. 

So i think they have just been cautious which is a good thing at this point. 



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
So is 17m a shipped prediction or a sold-through one? Because if it's shipped that's pretty disappointing, that's putting down their prediction by 3 million.

Its shipped. And I wont o as far as call it disappointing more like realistic and what should have been expected to begin with.

I always said that 20M shipped fr the FY was to much. I mean you o from shipping like 14M or s to shipping 20M? How???????? 

Now for the 2019-2020 FY they can up their projection t like 19M depending and they will probably sell like 18M+.