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Brexit
only777 said:
Everyone talks about the danger of leaving the EU while forgetting one very important aspect.
What's the danger of staying in?
In France Marie Le Pen is fast gaining a lot more support and is considered the biggest treat to Emmanuel Macron ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/france-s-le-pen-starts-eu-campaign-promising-win-for-patriots ). If she wins the next election France is highly likely to leave the EU, and if France leaves it's game over for the EU, it's finished.
You can also point to Italy. What they are doing is seen by many as even more damaging than Brexit to the EU ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/the-eu-is-more-worried-about-italy-than-brexit ). If Italy keep making their own rules, why should other EU states follow the rules?
Well it turns out other country's like Poland already are ignoring certain rules ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-nationalism-special-report/special-report-why-poland-fell-out-of-step-with-europe-idUSKCN1MS1M3 ).
You could also point to the huge Economic problems of Greece, Spain, Ireland and others to see where the next wave of populism is likely to crop up.

If you ask me, the EU is not in good shape at all and collapse is looking more likely every year.
The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU? It's like preventing dying from cancer by committing suicide.

Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse. Not only would Germany face massive economic repercussions but likelihood of an EU collapse is much higher too. The EU is the largest economic area in the world, a collapse would lead to an avalanche that would negatively affect every country on this earth.

Working towards a scenario where everyone loses but you may lose the least(that's not even for sure) is not very intelligent.



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LurkerJ said:
100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/

and the UK will probably lose like 5 times as many..... what is your point?

Not to mention that Germany also "gained" new jobs, because of company's moveing out from the UK, and setting up base in other EU countries.
UK is gonna suffer alot more than the EU does, in the event of a no deal brexit.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 10 February 2019

Number of days to reach 50M from 40M : 198 days
Number of days to reach 60M from 50M : 187 days
Number of days to reach 70M from 60M : 175 days
Number of days to reach 80M from 70M : 227 days

Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249

LurkerJ said:
100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/

What's your point? no deal Brexit will be bad for Germany and the other EU members, hell Brexit is no matter how bad for Germany and the other EU members, that's the reason none of them wants brexit.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.

@Bold LOL so Ireland is going to break the GFA ? 

Are you sure the UK won't smuggle if Ireland decides to keep the GFA alive ? LMAO, the UK would have plenty to smuggle inside Ireland/EU cause they could just lower import controls to the lowest bidder without a say from the EU and then resell at a markup to crash the EU market. It's too bad for you that those same "international rules" have perfectly good loopholes in them (both Ireland and the UK applying for article 21) so either the EU's going to have to implement customs checks with Ireland if their too stubborn to apply contraband protocols and BTW, the WTO is toothless for most part ... (there are no rules or laws when it comes to the international stage because there's no global body that can compel a sovereign nation what to do and North Korea is a perfect example of that) 

As for your second paragraph what did you not understand when I reiterated that the "UK DOES NOT have to apply tariffs or regulations" ? If the UK decides to unilaterally cut tariffs then it's their FULLY SOVEREIGN RIGHT to make a decision what comes either in or out of their own state because nobody else has a say and arguing otherwise is delusional. Even with zero tariff's, produce from the EU is still expensive as shit so I'll say this much in that THE EU DOES NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC MONOPOLY ON PRODUCE like the middle east does with their low cost extraction of fossil fuels! The UK will find other desperate (competing poor nations) suppliers to get the best value so WTF does the EU have to offer to keep the British people in the shitty ass single market ? Aerospace ? (Boeing shits on Airbus) Cheap fossil fuels ? (the EU serves as Russia or Saudi Arabia's bitch) Digital technology ? (the EU get's it's ass kicked thoroughly by America and East Asia in this category) Pharmaceutics/Biotechnology ? (with the UK not in the EU's picture it will soon fall further behind the US in terms of leading edge health treatment options) The UK will start determining for itself what is *acceptable* so don't worry about what they'll find to be edible but the EU on the other hand has to get it's shit together because the three great pillars to having a stable and prosperous civilization is having technological independence, resource independence, and human capital (both China and the US share this view strongly so their results speak for themselves), however the EU lacks in all three of them in their blind pursuit of modern day liberalism over pragmatism. The EU must learn to discriminate against outside nations and their own member states as well in order to maintain the integrity of more powerful states within it so needs to forgo solidarity in favour of EU membership on a tiered basis where richer nations can be more happy so a vote from Greece, Italy or Portugal shouldn't be as good as the one from the UK. What will the EU do once it finds that Italy is in deep shit with debt if the UK isn't there to help the EU anymore and France still has soured relations to not bail them out ? 

The EU will absolutely have to do something about Ireland if it insists that it isn't going to do customs checks with goods coming from Northern Ireland especially if they see them dumping in chinese goods. With the GFA in place, no other side of the party shall place barriers between the bordering states so the only other way to realistically stop smuggling is if Ireland destroys their own roads leading to and from Northern Ireland but this means that the EU can't smuggle shit inside the UK either this way if the roads are broken. However, this might not stop smuggling entirely since airports, seaports, and train stations don't have ways to institute effective travelling impediments but most of all no customs checks are possible in that scenario either so neither the UK or Ireland can seize those goods in those instances. (safety checks also might not be possible either under the CTA) There's no way out for Ireland other than them to create their own border with the EU which would effectively mean cutting themselves off the single market. As for Northern Ireland, fat chance there's going to be a border poll in the near future since only Sinn Fein wants one and the Northern Ireland Secretary of State keeps insisting that conditions for one has not been met yet. That being said, I look forward to how long the EU will tolerate allowing Ireland letting the UK stab them in the back LEL ...

For Ireland it's a race between losing the single market then falling into disrepair or meeting the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland so it'll be quite a while before reunification is on the table if it even sees a chance ... 

And TLDR News does not give all the upsides to Brexit. For one he has yet to acknowledge that in the possibility no deal, imports become cheaper because of lower tariffs/regulations compared to the EU and by extension using this advantage to smuggle these goods through the open Irish border. Another possible upside of no deal is if Ireland decides to break the GFA then the UK get's to keep Northern Ireland FOREVER without another border poll ... (it's clear that the UK will NOT come empty handed with no deal so I'd be interested if somebody actually raised up these possibilities to him to see just how heavy his bias may be) 

Three highly likely possibilities after no deal:

#1 Ireland break the GFA (UK keeps Northern Ireland for good) 

#2 Ireland is ISOLATED from the EU customs union as a result of concerns of contraband reaching the market (does not take reunification entirely off the table but just makes it less likely so it's the middle ground option) 

#3 EU tolerates dumping of cheap imports from the backdoor (UK get's richer as a result of de facto access to the single market without having to pay cost of EU membership and import expensive EU goods AKA the worst outcome for EU)

I'm sure you realize it by now that the EU has NO OTHER OPTION than to make ABSOLUTE SURE that it protects it's single market by getting customs checks SOMEWHERE EVEN IF THE UK DOESN'T COOPERATE! (if that means between the EU and Ireland then so be it) 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.

@Bold LOL so Ireland is going to break the GFA ? 

Are you sure the UK won't smuggle if Ireland decides to keep the GFA alive ? LMAO, the UK would have plenty to smuggle inside Ireland/EU cause they could just lower import controls to the lowest bidder without a say from the EU and then resell at a markup to crash the EU market. It's too bad for you that those same "international rules" have perfectly good loopholes in them (both Ireland and the UK applying for article 21) so either the EU's going to have to implement customs checks with Ireland if their too stubborn to apply contraband protocols and BTW, the WTO is toothless for most part ... (there are no rules or laws when it comes to the international stage because there's no global body that can compel a sovereign nation what to do and North Korea is a perfect example of that) 

As for your second paragraph what did you not understand when I reiterated that the "UK DOES NOT have to apply tariffs or regulations" ? If the UK decides to unilaterally cut tariffs then it's their FULLY SOVEREIGN RIGHT to make a decision what comes either in or out of their own state because nobody else has a say and arguing otherwise is delusional. Even with zero tariff's, produce from the EU is still expensive as shit so I'll say this much in that THE EU DOES NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC MONOPOLY ON PRODUCE like the middle east does with their low cost extraction of fossil fuels! The UK will find other desperate (competing poor nations) suppliers to get the best value so WTF does the EU have to offer to keep the British people in the shitty ass single market ? Aerospace ? (Boeing shits on Airbus) Cheap fossil fuels ? (the EU serves as Russia or Saudi Arabia's bitch) Digital technology ? (the EU get's it's ass kicked thoroughly by America and East Asia in this category) Pharmaceutics/Biotechnology ? (with the UK not in the EU's picture it will soon fall further behind the US in terms of leading edge health treatment options) The UK will start determining for itself what is *acceptable* so don't worry about what they'll find to be edible but the EU on the other hand has to get it's shit together because the three great pillars to having a stable and prosperous civilization is having technological independence, resource independence, and human capital (both China and the US share this view strongly so their results speak for themselves), however the EU lacks in all three of them in their blind pursuit of modern day liberalism over pragmatism. The EU must learn to discriminate against outside nations and their own member states as well in order to maintain the integrity of more powerful states within it so needs to forgo solidarity in favour of EU membership on a tiered basis where richer nations can be more happy so a vote from Greece, Italy or Portugal shouldn't be as good as the one from the UK. What will the EU do once it finds that Italy is in deep shit with debt if the UK isn't there to help the EU anymore and France still has soured relations to not bail them out ? 

The EU will absolutely have to do something about Ireland if it insists that it isn't going to do customs checks with goods coming from Northern Ireland especially if they see them dumping in chinese goods. With the GFA in place, no other side of the party shall place barriers between the bordering states so the only other way to realistically stop smuggling is if Ireland destroys their own roads leading to and from Northern Ireland but this means that the EU can't smuggle shit inside the UK either this way if the roads are broken. However, this might not stop smuggling entirely since airports, seaports, and train stations don't have ways to institute effective travelling impediments but most of all no customs checks are possible in that scenario either so neither the UK or Ireland can seize those goods in those instances. (safety checks also might not be possible either under the CTA) There's no way out for Ireland other than them to create their own border with the EU which would effectively mean cutting themselves off the single market. As for Northern Ireland, fat chance there's going to be a border poll in the near future since only Sinn Fein wants one and the Northern Ireland Secretary of State keeps insisting that conditions for one has not been met yet. That being said, I look forward to how long the EU will tolerate allowing Ireland letting the UK stab them in the back LEL ...

For Ireland it's a race between losing the single market then falling into disrepair or meeting the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland so it'll be quite a while before reunification is on the table if it even sees a chance ... 

And TLDR News does not give all the upsides to Brexit. For one he has yet to acknowledge that in the possibility no deal, imports become cheaper because of lower tariffs/regulations compared to the EU and by extension using this advantage to smuggle these goods through the open Irish border. Another possible upside of no deal is if Ireland decides to break the GFA then the UK get's to keep Northern Ireland FOREVER without another border poll ... (it's clear that the UK will NOT come empty handed with no deal so I'd be interested if somebody actually raised up these possibilities to him to see just how heavy his bias may be) 

Three highly likely possibilities after no deal:

#1 Ireland break the GFA (UK keeps Northern Ireland for good) 

#2 Ireland is ISOLATED from the EU customs union as a result of concerns of contraband reaching the market (does not take reunification entirely off the table but just makes it less likely so it's the middle ground option) 

#3 EU tolerates dumping of cheap imports from the backdoor (UK get's richer as a result of de facto access to the single market without having to pay cost of EU membership and import expensive EU goods AKA the worst outcome for EU)

I'm sure you realize it by now that the EU has NO OTHER OPTION than to make ABSOLUTE SURE that it protects it's single market by getting customs checks SOMEWHERE EVEN IF THE UK DOESN'T COOPERATE! (if that means between the EU and Ireland then so be it) 

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.

You know that you're in denial ...  

1. If that is so then why MUST the EU insist on an Irish backstop ? You STILL haven't answered the key question yet and that is will Ireland institute customs checks at the Irish border in a no deal scenario ? If you can't guarantee that it WON'T violate the GFA then stop discussing this and I suggest you start finding the answer ... (the UK WILL NOT have a customs union with the EU and that's final since May's deal was voted down for the same reason) 

2. Only the Northern Ireland's Secretary of State can determine when a border poll is appropriate ... 

3. Is that contingent on getting a deal ? What about the case of no deal ?  

4. I don't see how that's possible without Ireland at the very least installing a customs checkpoint at the border and looking back ANY sort of physical barrier will inevitably lead to remilitarization because it's not going to be the unionist forces who will target Ireland's customs checks but it will be the nationalist forces who will probably target them thus calling Irish forces to arms! It's become even more clear after the ramifications that a customs check is impossible to uphold the GFA in historic light so either Ireland needs to take responsibility for the fact that it's giving Britain a backdoor or prioritize staying inside the customs union which will lead to eventually breaking the GFA. Logic can only conclude that that upholding the GFA and meeting customs union standards are MUTALLY EXCLUSIVE ... (Ireland is FORCED to choose between the two as it CAN'T have both) 

5. It pretty much is since Leo Varadkar keeps insisting that there won't be ANY customs checks! Your claim is in contradiction with Leo's. LOL, you won't even rule out the possibility of smuggling so you think the entire world will somehow threaten to sanction the UK ? China along with many other poorer nations will not care about the fact that the UK is smuggling their shit inside the EU when they stand to make some cash in the process too LMAO ... (I told you the WTO is toothless and TLDR doesn't reciprocate the obvious because he's just plain biased) 

The Conservatives are right in that they have the leverage in this case to either wreck the EU market or amputate Ireland from the EU customs union so they won't take off no deal because there's a possible path to thrive or to inflict great amount of damage upon a state. Ireland overplayed their hand and now they'll feel the repercussions ... 

6. The only problem with your plan is Northern Ireland's Secretary of State has the final say and if she says so then that's the end of it so calls from either Sinn Fein or the DUP mean nothing ... 

Since the DUP practically holds Theresa May at gunpoint who appoints Northern Ireland's Secretary of State, I don't think the possibility of a border poll is open at least until the next general election and by then Ireland is sure to get kicked out of the EU customs union before Theresa May serves the end of her current term so there might not even be a border poll during the next term ... 



MrWayne said:
only777 said:
Everyone talks about the danger of leaving the EU while forgetting one very important aspect.
What's the danger of staying in?
In France Marie Le Pen is fast gaining a lot more support and is considered the biggest treat to Emmanuel Macron ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/france-s-le-pen-starts-eu-campaign-promising-win-for-patriots ). If she wins the next election France is highly likely to leave the EU, and if France leaves it's game over for the EU, it's finished.
You can also point to Italy. What they are doing is seen by many as even more damaging than Brexit to the EU ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/the-eu-is-more-worried-about-italy-than-brexit ). If Italy keep making their own rules, why should other EU states follow the rules?
Well it turns out other country's like Poland already are ignoring certain rules ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-nationalism-special-report/special-report-why-poland-fell-out-of-step-with-europe-idUSKCN1MS1M3 ).
You could also point to the huge Economic problems of Greece, Spain, Ireland and others to see where the next wave of populism is likely to crop up.

If you ask me, the EU is not in good shape at all and collapse is looking more likely every year.
The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU? It's like preventing dying from cancer by committing suicide.

Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse. Not only would Germany face massive economic repercussions but likelihood of an EU collapse is much higher too. The EU is the largest economic area in the world, a collapse would lead to an avalanche that would negatively affect every country on this earth.

Working towards a scenario where everyone loses but you may lose the least(that's not even for sure) is not very intelligent.

"Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU?"

Really?  You would want to stay in the house of cards as it falls down?  Besides I actually wrote my answer for this in my post.  That was: 

 The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

"Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse."

You miss key facts.  Germany are the biggest player in the EU, infact the EU is a project by Germany.  They don't want to leave it.   But the biggest issue is that Germany and most other EU countrys (Not the UK though) use the Euro as their money.  To pull out of the Eu is a huge task to reissue and change their financial systems again.  The UK doesn't have this problem as they still use the Pound (£).

" The EU is the largest economic area in the world"

No its not. Both Asia and North America have higher GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_by_GDP_(nominal)




Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.

You know that you're in denial ...  

1. If that is so then why MUST the EU insist on an Irish backstop ? You STILL haven't answered the key question yet and that is will Ireland institute customs checks at the Irish border in a no deal scenario ? If you can't guarantee that it WON'T violate the GFA then stop discussing this and I suggest you start finding the answer ... (the UK WILL NOT have a customs union with the EU and that's final since May's deal was voted down for the same reason) 

2. Only the Northern Ireland's Secretary of State can determine when a border poll is appropriate ... 

3. Is that contingent on getting a deal ? What about the case of no deal ?  

4. I don't see how that's possible without Ireland at the very least installing a customs checkpoint at the border and looking back ANY sort of physical barrier will inevitably lead to remilitarization because it's not going to be the unionist forces who will target Ireland's customs checks but it will be the nationalist forces who will probably target them thus calling Irish forces to arms! It's become even more clear after the ramifications that a customs check is impossible to uphold the GFA in historic light so either Ireland needs to take responsibility for the fact that it's giving Britain a backdoor or prioritize staying inside the customs union which will lead to eventually breaking the GFA. Logic can only conclude that that upholding the GFA and meeting customs union standards are MUTALLY EXCLUSIVE ... (Ireland is FORCED to choose between the two as it CAN'T have both) 

5. It pretty much is since Leo Varadkar keeps insisting that there won't be ANY customs checks! Your claim is in contradiction with Leo's. LOL, you won't even rule out the possibility of smuggling so you think the entire world will somehow threaten to sanction the UK ? China along with many other poorer nations will not care about the fact that the UK is smuggling their shit inside the EU when they stand to make some cash in the process too LMAO ... (I told you the WTO is toothless and TLDR doesn't reciprocate the obvious because he's just plain biased) 

The Conservatives are right in that they have the leverage in this case to either wreck the EU market or amputate Ireland from the EU customs union so they won't take off no deal because there's a possible path to thrive or to inflict great amount of damage upon a state. Ireland overplayed their hand and now they'll feel the repercussions ... 

6. The only problem with your plan is Northern Ireland's Secretary of State has the final say and if she says so then that's the end of it so calls from either Sinn Fein or the DUP mean nothing ... 

Since the DUP practically holds Theresa May at gunpoint who appoints Northern Ireland's Secretary of State, I don't think the possibility of a border poll is open at least until the next general election and by then Ireland is sure to get kicked out of the EU customs union before Theresa May serves the end of her current term so there might not even be a border poll during the next term ... 

1. The backstop id just in case of a Brexit with a deal, since this includes a 22 month transition period. The Backstop id for the transition period, not for the Brexit itself. A no-Deal Brexit nullifies the need of the Backstop.

2. True. It is also explicitly her duty to call for such a poll when the people wants to become part of Ireland. In other words, it's time to plan if she wants to act on her duty. On a somewhat related and sad side, it looks like Brexit could refuel the Troubles even without any hard border: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/security-situation-in-northern-ireland

3. Deal or no deal, that doesn't change anything here. In fact, the UK already implemented them and several countries already protested against them (New Zealand and Taiwan at least for my knowledge, but there might very well be more)

4. I literally facepalmed when I read that. That's just border controls, not a fucking Berlin Wall. Besides, if a physical barrier inevitably leads to militarization, how come the European borders were not controlled by military force for decades before the Schengen agreement? Or that there's no military presence at the EU borders? Maybe because in inevitably leading to militarization is complete bullshit? Pretty much! Ireland can with no problems at all choose both the Customs Union and uphold the GFA. There's a clear difference between not wanting to do something and not being able to do so.

5. Leo is believing that an agreement can still be found, thus clinging on the backstop agreement. But I think we both agree here that there will be no deal Brexit. But I agree the Taoiseach is getting increasingly desperate as he tinks the backstop is the only solution... hence why he urges the UK time and again to accept the 585 page-long deal, as without a deal, no backstop either. One must note thought that until two weeks ago, May also urged the parliament in favor of the backstop, the fact that she's not doing that anymore just shows that the parliament isn't willing for it and the EU won't renegotiate the deal. We'll see in the coming days how Leo's position will evolve I guess.

6. Look at number 2

And if you don't know by now that you're in total denial, not everything collapsing around you could point you in the right direction



only777 said:

" The EU is the largest economic area in the world"

No its not. Both Asia and North America have higher GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_by_GDP_(nominal)


Wut? You know that the EU isn't a continent, right? And you know that Asia and north America aren't single economic markets, right?

Last edited by Ka-pi96 - on 11 February 2019

Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

only777 said:
MrWayne said:

Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU? It's like preventing dying from cancer by committing suicide.

Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse. Not only would Germany face massive economic repercussions but likelihood of an EU collapse is much higher too. The EU is the largest economic area in the world, a collapse would lead to an avalanche that would negatively affect every country on this earth.

Working towards a scenario where everyone loses but you may lose the least(that's not even for sure) is not very intelligent.

"Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU?"

Really?  You would want to stay in the house of cards as it falls down?  Besides I actually wrote my answer for this in my post.  That was: 

 The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

"Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse."

You miss key facts.  Germany are the biggest player in the EU, infact the EU is a project by Germany.  They don't want to leave it.   But the biggest issue is that Germany and most other EU countrys (Not the UK though) use the Euro as their money.  To pull out of the Eu is a huge task to reissue and change their financial systems again.  The UK doesn't have this problem as they still use the Pound (£).

" The EU is the largest economic area in the world"

No its not. Both Asia and North America have higher GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_by_GDP_(nominal)


The EU is not a continent, but an economic bloc. And like you could see, it took entire continents to rival with the EU in that regard, as neither the US or China are big enough to beat the EU in that regard.

The problem with your theory is that the house in question is held up by the different nations in the EU. Leaving would be the reason why it collapses. But if you don't do so, it stays in place. What you're advocating is herd mentality: One's leaving, so everybody must leave. It's the reason why the stock markets crash (because everybody panics and starts selling too).

While there's a risk that Le Pen would push France out of the EU, she would need to win the election first. She has a good shot for the first round, but I doubt very much that she will win the second round. And depending on how severe Brexit will end up to be, this might also scare voters away from such an Eurosceptical party like the Front National.

Speaking of the FN, funny and ironic bit: Marine le Pen moved the party away from Pétainism and more into Gaullism. De Gaulle was a staunch advocate of not letting the UK join the EU. Now the UK are leaving and another Gaullism leader is trying to become Président(e?) de la République. The EU was Robert Schumann's (then Minister of French foreign affairs) project and not a German one as you claim. At worst, it could e called a Luxembourgish project as Schumann was born in Luxembourg. It is, funny enough, also a byproduct of the Marshall plan, which ordered the European countries to work out their industrial supplies together, which led to the predecessor of the EU, the ECSC.