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Bofferbrauer2 on 24 January 2019
Victorlink87 said:
palou said:

The EU is by far the largest trade partner of the UK. A no-deal brexit would mean, that there would be an immediate implementation of tariffs (as dictated by the WTO between two members without other agreements) and border checks. If having tariffs/border checks is viewed as a positive or negative is a debate I won't touch, but the fact that it is so *sudden* in itself creates significant logistic issues, since the existing infrastructure doesn't assume any such barriers (which various sectors of the government and private enterprises are trying to prepare for - we'll see how effective it is.) For example, a big part of UK medical supplies come from the EU - the UK national health service is consequently prepping for a temporary shortage. (I would assume they would have a fair handle of what's necessary - I wouldn't expect people to die due to this.) The majority of the food in the UK comes from the EU; Again, probably no starvations in Britain, no need to be melodramatic; but a significant price hike, in the transition, is very possible. As a whole, it's mostly going to be a very *expensive* procedure, for both governments, and the private sector, needing to make immediate adjustments to the market situation. 

That is a lot to take in. Its not as if there is a reasonable trade partner to take the EU's place either. The US just doesn't export a lot nor do we do it well. China is a possibility, but food exports could be problematic.

2 other problems are the situation of Northern Ireland and the question on what happens to Brits in Europe and Europeans in the UK. The latter part is trickier than it may sounds, but without a deal all those people would technically become illegal immigrants even if they were living in the country for decades already. So if there's no deal in the end the probable first step either side would do would be to legalize those inhabitants under immigration rules or, for long-term inhabitants possibly a switch of or double nationality.

Northern Ireland is tricky because a no deal would impose a hard border there. This not only would become very disruptive on trade, but also could spark a return of the Troubles, the war or dispute between Ireland and Northern Ireland (have a read here)



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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OTBWY on 24 January 2019
Victorlink87 said:
palou said:

The EU is by far the largest trade partner of the UK. A no-deal brexit would mean, that there would be an immediate implementation of tariffs (as dictated by the WTO between two members without other agreements) and border checks. If having tariffs/border checks is viewed as a positive or negative is a debate I won't touch, but the fact that it is so *sudden* in itself creates significant logistic issues, since the existing infrastructure doesn't assume any such barriers (which various sectors of the government and private enterprises are trying to prepare for - we'll see how effective it is.) For example, a big part of UK medical supplies come from the EU - the UK national health service is consequently prepping for a temporary shortage. (I would assume they would have a fair handle of what's necessary - I wouldn't expect people to die due to this.) The majority of the food in the UK comes from the EU; Again, probably no starvations in Britain, no need to be melodramatic; but a significant price hike, in the transition, is very possible. As a whole, it's mostly going to be a very *expensive* procedure, for both governments, and the private sector, needing to make immediate adjustments to the market situation. 

That is a lot to take in. Its not as if there is a reasonable trade partner to take the EU's place either. The US just doesn't export a lot nor do we do it well. China is a possibility, but food exports could be problematic.

China is far away. EU is close. Out of all the first world trade partners we would like, the vast majority is in the EU.

Also check out WTO rules: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DIz9UTmMQk



MrWayne on 24 January 2019
fatslob-:O said:
MrWayne said:

Since when is it a principles of democracy that results can't be overturned by a follow-up election? I would even say that it is a principle of democracy that results can be overturned by follow-up elections, it happens all the time, you elect your parliament every four years and new governments overturn decisions made by the previous government (Trump overturned obamacare, Merkle overturned the decision to pull out of nuklear-elekticity when she came to power, etc). Sometimes you even have to vote until you get a good result, If the political parties in Germany fail to form a government after an election the citizens have to vote again, The british parliament is currently in a pretty similar situation, they don't want to stay in the EU, they don't want a no-deal scenario and they don't want May's deal, that's a typical deadlock.

Also what if a majority of the british people don't want the Brexit anymore? How would you justify Brexit then? A second referendum could clarify if the people still want the Brexit and if so what kind of Brexit.

@Bold Then explain where the end sight would be in holding endless elections ? The people who 'support' the "result of the first referendum" but then calls for another immediate second referendum are loaded with nothing but horseshit to plot on overturning the result ... 

"Fixed terms" is not the equivalent of 'overturning' the result so that's just an invalid comparison right there. Depending on the structure of the government, executive orders or bills can be 'repealed' but as far as but as far as "elections/referendums" are concerned these are things that cannot be 'overturned' in principle and for a very good reason within history since the slave states that feverishly opposed the ascension Abraham Lincoln got their asses kicked in end. Any liberal democracy that are worth their salt will make good on their commitments to their own people otherwise they face the wrath of a possible civil war. It has been a sacred tradition in liberal democracies to follow with the result instead of opposing it for nearly the last 100 years and it took a civil war in what is currently one of the greatest civilizations of all time to see why it wrong to discard it but to even suggest that the people keep voting until they get a 'good' result is absolutely preposterous and shortsighted ... (the point of democracy is that the people don't know what a 'good' result is since that's entirely a matter of opinion even with a consensus so that is not a justification for defiling the integrity of democracy) 

Also despite what the pundits out there say, no Trump did not repeal Obamacare and is in fact still the law currently. As for Merkel, no she wasn't responsible for decommissioning nuclear energy. It was the previous chancellor, Gerhard Shroder which put forth a law into decommissioning nuclear energy. Merkel only extradited the process after Fukushima meltdown ... 

As for German elections, only the president can call for new elections but they also have the power to reject potential laws, however are these actions acceptable when they are supposed to hold a ceremonial role like a monarch ? 

As for your last lines I could coax you into a similar question. How do you know that the majority of the british people still want EU membership and is democracy ever to be settled with successive votes ?  

Bold 1) That's exactly what i said, the decision to decommissioning nuclear energy was made by the previous government and her government stopped the decommissioning.

Bold 2) Why shouldn't it be acceptable? That's the power the constitution grants him. Also the german president can't be compared to the queen or other monarchs because he gets elected.

Bold 3) There is no final goal within democracy, it will always change. I don't know if the majority of the british people still want EU membership but a second referendum should clarify that

Things like a second Brexit referendum or a second election of the german Bundestag should always be the ultima ratio. If by a miracle the British parliament can agree on a solution(no deal, deal, stay in the EU), fine but if the parliament can't agree on anything there have to be a second referendum.

a) because nobody can justify a no deal scenario in this case, the government would be against it, the majority of the parliament would be against it and probably the majority of the british people would be against a no deal scenario.

b) a second referendum would be different than the first one because it would correct the big flaw the first one had. The big flaw the first referendum had was that you had to decide between the status quo, staying in the EU, something very concret, and Brexit, about whom nobody knew exactly what he would look like. Now people can decide between three very concrete options, no deal, May's deal or stay in the EU.



Wyrdness on 24 January 2019
Scoobes said:
Skeeuk said:
I firmly believe that there will be no brexit the powers that be won't allow it. I predict conditions will be engineered so that the people will ask for a second referendum.

Once this happens there will be an extremely strong push across all media that brexit people are naizis and evil, I wouldn't be surprised that false flag attacks will be planted to turn peoples opinions away from leaving EU

That's quite a conspiracy theory. You do realise that the the largest circulation of print media in the UK has been for anti-EU for well over a decade?

Print media don't run the country nor will they solve any of the current problems if you read them today they're banging on about the disasters ahead which tells you all you need to know about the media they were anti-EU just for the sake of a story. What Skee posted is not farfetched tbh.



Victorlink87 on 24 January 2019
OTBWY said:
Victorlink87 said:

That is a lot to take in. Its not as if there is a reasonable trade partner to take the EU's place either. The US just doesn't export a lot nor do we do it well. China is a possibility, but food exports could be problematic.

China is far away. EU is close. Out of all the first world trade partners we would like, the vast majority is in the EU.

Also check out WTO rules: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DIz9UTmMQk

That was a good listen. Sounds like a Brexit plan is desperately needed. If the hang up is on quota of goods the plan should include a proposal to have a quota reasonable for the UK's size. 

 

I imagine if the quota were reasonable you would have the US on board quickly as Donald Trump is pretty anti-EU and pro-trade. Then the others would follow. I may be making this too simple.



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Victorlink87 on 24 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Victorlink87 said:

That is a lot to take in. Its not as if there is a reasonable trade partner to take the EU's place either. The US just doesn't export a lot nor do we do it well. China is a possibility, but food exports could be problematic.

2 other problems are the situation of Northern Ireland and the question on what happens to Brits in Europe and Europeans in the UK. The latter part is trickier than it may sounds, but without a deal all those people would technically become illegal immigrants even if they were living in the country for decades already. So if there's no deal in the end the probable first step either side would do would be to legalize those inhabitants under immigration rules or, for long-term inhabitants possibly a switch of or double nationality.

Northern Ireland is tricky because a no deal would impose a hard border there. This not only would become very disruptive on trade, but also could spark a return of the Troubles, the war or dispute between Ireland and Northern Ireland (have a read here)

That was a good read. Thank you. 

 

My goodness its a lot. I imagine giving citizenship to those who have been in the country  "x" amount of years would be important and wise. 

 

Oh Northern Ireland. Hopefully the Troubles war wouldn't return.

 

I have to ask again, why did the past Brexit deal fail?



Bofferbrauer2 on 24 January 2019
Wyrdness said:
Scoobes said:

That's quite a conspiracy theory. You do realise that the the largest circulation of print media in the UK has been for anti-EU for well over a decade?

Print media don't run the country nor will they solve any of the current problems if you read them today they're banging on about the disasters ahead which tells you all you need to know about the media they were anti-EU just for the sake of a story. What Skee posted is not farfetched tbh.

Well, considering the majority is controlled by Rupert Murdock and are staunch Brexiteers, I'd say it is very far-fectched, even more so that May herself ruled it out (starts at 2:15):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg6LxVoTzF4

While we're at the press, 30 years old and still accurate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M&feature=player_detailpage#t=54s



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

JRPGfan on 24 January 2019
Victorlink87 said:
OTBWY said:

China is far away. EU is close. Out of all the first world trade partners we would like, the vast majority is in the EU.

Also check out WTO rules: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DIz9UTmMQk

That was a good listen. Sounds like a Brexit plan is desperately needed. If the hang up is on quota of goods the plan should include a proposal to have a quota reasonable for the UK's size. 

I imagine if the quota were reasonable you would have the US on board quickly as Donald Trump is pretty anti-EU and pro-trade. Then the others would follow. I may be making this too simple.

Yes Trump is Anti-EU, the USA's main allies.
Why? because he doesnt care about anyone but himself, and only marginally the US.

Remember the "America First" chants?

Why would you expect the UK to get good deals with the americans? Look at what happend with Steel Imports, trump is clearly giveing them unfair trade deals, to favor the US work force, in the hopes that it could lead to better conditions for the US steel industry.

The UK would likely face that sort of thing, when dealing with the US, they wouldnt be given as good trade deals as they had with the EU.
Not to mention the US market competition is probably tough, the UK wouldnt just be able to recover all they lost, from being part of the single market, by dealing more with the US.

Its a like putting a plaster, on a gun shot wound...... the amount of help it gives, is just too little.



JRPGfan on 24 January 2019
Victorlink87 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

2 other problems are the situation of Northern Ireland and the question on what happens to Brits in Europe and Europeans in the UK. The latter part is trickier than it may sounds, but without a deal all those people would technically become illegal immigrants even if they were living in the country for decades already. So if there's no deal in the end the probable first step either side would do would be to legalize those inhabitants under immigration rules or, for long-term inhabitants possibly a switch of or double nationality.

Northern Ireland is tricky because a no deal would impose a hard border there. This not only would become very disruptive on trade, but also could spark a return of the Troubles, the war or dispute between Ireland and Northern Ireland (have a read here)

That was a good read. Thank you. 

My goodness its a lot. I imagine giving citizenship to those who have been in the country  "x" amount of years would be important and wise. 

Oh Northern Ireland. Hopefully the Troubles war wouldn't return.

I have to ask again, why did the past Brexit deal fail?

Because their politicans have sold the public on lies, that everything would "Just work out" and it would be easy to be as well off, on their own.
The truth is, they havnt been able to get anywhere near what they promised the people.

So now they are all afraid to support it, its better than nothing, but its not near enough for them to support it.
The problem is, the EU has already said, this is as good as it gets.

The UK cant just leave, and get as good or better deals, than they had as members in the EU.
If it worked out like that, it would encurage other countries to try leaving as well.

The UK is now finding that, getting things as well, as they had it as members of the EU, will be hard.
And are unable to actknowledge the facts of the situtation, so in-fighting as broken out, theres power struggles for controll, and everyone has their own oppinions on how to "fix" things, and is unwilling to follow the other parties suggestions.

Basically the politicans are thinking more about their voteing results next election, than the good of the country.

The short of it? Its gonna hurt their economy & jobs, theres no two ways about it.



JRPGfan on 24 January 2019

Dyson head is/was a Pro-Brexit person, who told the public, dont worry things will be fine or better, once we leave the EU.
What happend? soon as brexit is about it hit, he moved his company out of the country, to another place where they have a trade deal with the EU.

Hes not the only one, so many Pro Brexiters, have two faces, and lie, and move their money & companies out, dispite saying leaveing the EU would be good for business.
Just like the Pro Brexit politicans lied, Boris johnson & nigel farage, these Pro brexit guys, once it looks like things are crumbleing, do they stick around to help pick up the peices? No the just sit back laugh and complain.

The public was lied to & manipulated, and it lead to this brexit.