Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

Victorlink87 said:

palou said:

The EU is by far the largest trade partner of the UK. A no-deal brexit would mean, that there would be an immediate implementation of tariffs (as dictated by the WTO between two members without other agreements) and border checks. If having tariffs/border checks is viewed as a positive or negative is a debate I won't touch, but the fact that it is so *sudden* in itself creates significant logistic issues, since the existing infrastructure doesn't assume any such barriers (which various sectors of the government and private enterprises are trying to prepare for - we'll see how effective it is.) For example, a big part of UK medical supplies come from the EU - the UK national health service is consequently prepping for a temporary shortage. (I would assume they would have a fair handle of what's necessary - I wouldn't expect people to die due to this.) The majority of the food in the UK comes from the EU; Again, probably no starvations in Britain, no need to be melodramatic; but a significant price hike, in the transition, is very possible. As a whole, it's mostly going to be a very *expensive* procedure, for both governments, and the private sector, needing to make immediate adjustments to the market situation. 

That is a lot to take in. Its not as if there is a reasonable trade partner to take the EU's place either. The US just doesn't export a lot nor do we do it well. China is a possibility, but food exports could be problematic.

2 other problems are the situation of Northern Ireland and the question on what happens to Brits in Europe and Europeans in the UK. The latter part is trickier than it may sounds, but without a deal all those people would technically become illegal immigrants even if they were living in the country for decades already. So if there's no deal in the end the probable first step either side would do would be to legalize those inhabitants under immigration rules or, for long-term inhabitants possibly a switch of or double nationality.

Northern Ireland is tricky because a no deal would impose a hard border there. This not only would become very disruptive on trade, but also could spark a return of the Troubles, the war or dispute between Ireland and Northern Ireland (have a read here)