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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Soundwave said:

I think they already know they're not hitting 20 mill. That was likely largely a target based around Labo become a hit sales driver that would've built through the summer and blown up as a must have holiday gift for kids with tons of social media buzz, but it's nowhere close to that.

But there's no point in revising down now. They'll wait until Q3 (Christmas quarter) is over and revise the forecast down in January to something more realistic.

Anything above 17.5 mill is not bad, the PS4 did 17.7 its second full fiscal year so you can't exactly be mad with say "only 18.3" or something.

If they are certain know they dont hitting it, they would lowered forecast few days ago.

Even if they dont hit 20m, they will be close to I dont think they will sell less than 18m (9-10m in Q3 and 3-4m in Q4).

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 02 November 2018

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Between 12 or 15 million is the most likely range. Short of Let's Go being a massive driver, I can't see them topping 15 million this fiscal year, heck I think they are below 10 million right now for the current fiscal period.



Miyamotoo said:
Soundwave said:

I think they already know they're not hitting 20 mill. That was likely largely a target based around Labo become a hit sales driver that would've built through the summer and blown up as a must have holiday gift for kids with tons of social media buzz, but it's nowhere close to that.

But there's no point in revising down now. They'll wait until Q3 (Christmas quarter) is over and revise the forecast down in January to something more realistic.

Anything above 17.5 mill is not bad, the PS4 did 17.7 its second full fiscal year so you can't exactly be mad with say "only 18.3" or something.

If they are certain know they dont hitting it, they would lowered forecast few days ago.

Even if they dont hit 20m, they will be close to I dont think they will sell less than 18m (9-10m in Q3 and 3-4m in Q4).

They're under no obligation to say anything. 

Nintendo has revised forecasts down and almost always they do it after Q3 because why give yourself unneccssarily bad press before a holiday season for no reason? There's still a chance (probably a slim one) that they can hit that target anyway.

No reason to revise now, it's better to do it quietly in January when you share Q3 results. A sales target is just that, an estimate, it's not an iron clad guarantee or something a company is bound to. Even if they don't hit their hardware target they likely are gonna beat their software target, so they'll probably have that to point out too. 

Because Labo has likely performed no where close to a system seller they likely know internally that it's going to be difficult to hit that hardware number now, the plan likely always was that Labo would be a fairly healthy sales driver in conjunction with Pokemon Lets Go and Smash, not just leaving it all on PLG and Smash. The third part of their equation hasn't worked out. 



I think with the facts with had before the half-year report was released (April - September) nobody could realistically expect much more than 5 mil. I still think it's very hard but still doable to sell 10 mil. in Q3 and 5 mil. in Q1 2019. We shouldn't forget NSBU Deluxe which will be released in Jan. This could very well be a system-seller to some degree. It's a full-fledged 2d Mario-game many missed out because they didn't have a Nintendo Wii U. If the Wii U would have been very successful I guess NSBU would definitely have been a system seller even if it would never have been bundled. Realistically, it could have sold something between 15 and 20 mil. as a stand-alone title. I guess for roughly 1/3 of the buyers it would have been a system seller/a co-reason why they now decided to by a Wii U.



Fight-the-Streets said:
I think with the facts with had before the half-year report was released (April - September) nobody could realistically expect much more than 5 mil. I still think it's very hard but still doable to sell 10 mil. in Q3 and 5 mil. in Q1 2019. We shouldn't forget NSBU Deluxe which will be released in Jan. This could very well be a system-seller to some degree. It's a full-fledged 2d Mario-game many missed out because they didn't have a Nintendo Wii U. If the Wii U would have been very successful I guess NSBU would definitely have been a system seller even if it would never have been bundled. Realistically, it could have sold something between 15 and 20 mil. as a stand-alone title. I guess for roughly 1/3 of the buyers it would have been a system seller/a co-reason why they now decided to by a Wii U.

I think a lot of people are still in the "it's a late Wii U port so it wont move hardware" mindset when it comes to NSMBU which is silly based on the performance of Wii U ports so far on Switch.

It's a perfect title to create post-holiday momentum.



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So with those Pokemon Let's Go and Smash numbers, how do you feel now about those 20M?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
So with those Pokemon Let's Go and Smash numbers, how do you feel now about those 20M?

Depends on the actual console numbers they pushed.

We got a US LTD total through November, but have we gotten any global totals in all the recent PR?



There is no way they can reach 20M anymore.

But they will surpass their software estimate by quite a bit. I think they'll try to focus on that and adjust their forecast in january.



Megiddo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
So with those Pokemon Let's Go and Smash numbers, how do you feel now about those 20M?

Depends on the actual console numbers they pushed.

We got a US LTD total through November, but have we gotten any global totals in all the recent PR?

From what I saw both in Luxembourg and the Philippines, they push quite a lot of consoles. But last check was a week ago, so I don't know how well it's doing right now