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Forums - Movies & TV - Solo Headed To Become A Flop? Yep, It Flopped.

 

How Much Will Solo Make WW?

Under $700M 56 60.87%
 
$700M-$800M 18 19.57%
 
$801M-$900M 12 13.04%
 
$901M-$1B 3 3.26%
 
Over $1B 3 3.26%
 
Total:92
thismeintiel on 28 May 2018
VGPolyglot said:
thismeintiel said:
Full Memorial Weekend estimates are up. Solo made ~$103M in its first 4 days at the DBO. For comparison, RO made $172.7M for the same time frame. FBO doesn't include Day 4, but WW Solo sits at $168M. This compares to $307.7M RO made WW in its first 4 days, minus Mon's FBO. This makes Solo 45.4% down on RO. If this holds, Solo will only make $576.6M.

So, that combined with merchandise sales, home video, streaming, etc. makes it look like it'll at least break even, so no big loss for them that would necessitate them changing course it seems.

Sure.  Well...except for the fact that merch sales have been down since TLJ and I highly doubt a BO bomb is going to rejuvenate them.  And streaming services will have to pay much less to get a flop on their service, if they even want it on there.  Nice try, though.



 

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areason on 28 May 2018
VGPolyglot said:
thismeintiel said:
Full Memorial Weekend estimates are up. Solo made ~$103M in its first 4 days at the DBO. For comparison, RO made $172.7M for the same time frame. FBO doesn't include Day 4, but WW Solo sits at $168M. This compares to $307.7M RO made WW in its first 4 days, minus Mon's FBO. This makes Solo 45.4% down on RO. If this holds, Solo will only make $576.6M.

So, that combined with merchandise sales, home video, streaming, etc. makes it look like it'll at least break even, so no big loss for them that would necessitate them changing course it seems.

Is that what we're doing now? Judging how a movie does based on wtv it can sell 5 years on? 

And considering the amount licensing costs for streaming services, it isn't getting anywhere much from that. 



starcraft on 28 May 2018
thismeintiel said:
VGPolyglot said:

So, that combined with merchandise sales, home video, streaming, etc. makes it look like it'll at least break even, so no big loss for them that would necessitate them changing course it seems.

Sure.  Well...except for the fact that merch sales have been down since TLJ and I highly doubt a BO bomb is going to rejuvenate them.  And streaming services will have to pay much less to get a flop on their service, if they even want it on there.  Nice try, though.

I am sorry but I think you have some confirmation bias going on here. You started this thread anticipating a flop, and are now selectively interpreting information to give yourself that result.

Solo definitely disappointed relative to expectations in its opening weekend. But domestically it was still the the 4th biggest memorial weekend in a decade. Also, an eventual total of $550-600m is hard to call a bomb in any language.

Its almost certain to be profitable, has received strong reviews and excellent audience scores. Like yourself (and apparently Disney) I too am disappointed that a good film didn't do better, but there just isn't a reasonable definition by which it can be labelled a bomb/flop (at this stage).

Where I do agree is that Disney needs to learn from the mistakes made on this film. Mismanagement of production that resulted in the budget going from $150m to $250m have clearly taken their toll on the potential for major profit, and seem to have had a significant impact on mindshare - particularly in overseas territories.



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Angelus on 28 May 2018
starcraft said:
thismeintiel said:

Sure.  Well...except for the fact that merch sales have been down since TLJ and I highly doubt a BO bomb is going to rejuvenate them.  And streaming services will have to pay much less to get a flop on their service, if they even want it on there.  Nice try, though.

I am sorry but I think you have some confirmation bias going on here. You started this thread anticipating a flop, and are now selectively interpreting information to give yourself that result.

Solo definitely disappointed relative to expectations in its opening weekend. But domestically it was still the the 4th biggest memorial weekend in a decade. Also, an eventual total of $550-600m is hard to call a bomb in any language.

Its almost certain to be profitable, has received strong reviews and excellent audience scores. Like yourself (and apparently Disney) I too am disappointed that a good film didn't do better, but there just isn't a reasonable definition by which it can be labelled a bomb/flop (at this stage).

Where I do agree is that Disney needs to learn from the mistakes made on this film. Mismanagement of production that resulted in the budget going from $150m to $250m have clearly taken their toll on the potential for major profit, and seem to have had a significant impact on mindshare - particularly in overseas territories.

Might be the 4th biggest, but it's also about context. Star Wars is far too big a franchise for that to be acceptable. Especially when the memorial day weekend hasn't had much in the way of particularly lucrative releases of late anyway, so it would have been a very low bar to clear for that #1 spot. In fact, it's my personal belief that's the reason they chose to release this movie at this time of year, because they didn't have faith it could do the kind of awesome numbers Star Wars usually hits, so they figured "ah hell, memorial day weekend, we can say we had the biggest release ever there. Nice headline." They won't be pleased that they couldn't even sniff that goalpost.



numberwang on 28 May 2018
shikamaru317 said:
areason said:

Is that what we're doing now? Judging how a movie does based on wtv it can sell 5 years on? 

And considering the amount licensing costs for streaming services, it isn't getting anywhere much from that. 

DVD/Blu-Ray/Digital sales and TV & Streaming licensing accounts for more money than you think. Just as a for instance, Doctor Strange is estimated to have made $109m from DVD/Blu-Ray/Digital sales and $139m from TV and Streaming licensing. 

Revenue or profit? Big difference.



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starcraft on 28 May 2018
NightlyPoe said:
starcraft said:

Solo definitely disappointed relative to expectations in its opening weekend. But domestically it was still the the 4th biggest memorial weekend in a decade. Also, an eventual total of $550-600m is hard to call a bomb in any language.

Its almost certain to be profitable, has received strong reviews and excellent audience scores. Like yourself (and apparently Disney) I too am disappointed that a good film didn't do better, but there just isn't a reasonable definition by which it can be labelled a bomb/flop (at this stage).

$550-600 million is out of the question.  $400 million is more likely.  That's well below the 2x budget rule of thumb for profitability.

It will get more than $400.

Profitability rules are different for Star Wars. They will have a much larger merchandise and home market footprint than all but a handful of franchises.



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Faelco on 28 May 2018

Since when is a Star Wars movie good enough because it might break even sometime in the future thanks to the toys?

Guys, I know you're trying to defend it, but it just makes it look even more pathetic...



thismeintiel on 28 May 2018
Faelco said:
Since when is a Star Wars movie good enough because it might break even sometime in the future thanks to the toys?

Guys, I know you're trying to defend it, but it just makes it look even more pathetic...

This.  They sound just like Sony when they were trying to defend the results of Ghostbusters '16.  "Oh, it's not as bad as you think.  We're also going to make money with toys, licensing deals, DVD/Bluray sales, and streaming services."  The movie was a flop, plain and simple.  Did their excuses actually pan out to them continuing the franchise?  Nope.  Not that SW is going to end, but it will mean some big questions being raised by Disney and investors about how they go forward.  Especially if they have a 3rd film, like Ep 9, yet again underperform.

Speaking of Ghostbusters '16, that movie came in underperforming against what it needed to break even on production cost, $288M, by 20.4%, earning just $229.15M WW.  I honestly think there is a good shot that Solo does the same.  Meaning it would make ~$400M, the same NightlyPoe is predicting.  Especially with how the FBO seems to be apathetic to the film.  And that is just production budget.  With marketing thrown in, it is going to need to make ~$700M to break even.  I highly doubt it will ever get there, no matter how long you try adding in toy sales, which aren't doing so hot, and home media revenue.



 

thismeintiel on 28 May 2018
starcraft said:
thismeintiel said:

Sure.  Well...except for the fact that merch sales have been down since TLJ and I highly doubt a BO bomb is going to rejuvenate them.  And streaming services will have to pay much less to get a flop on their service, if they even want it on there.  Nice try, though.

I am sorry but I think you have some confirmation bias going on here. You started this thread anticipating a flop, and are now selectively interpreting information to give yourself that result.

Solo definitely disappointed relative to expectations in its opening weekend. But domestically it was still the the 4th biggest memorial weekend in a decade. Also, an eventual total of $550-600m is hard to call a bomb in any language.

Its almost certain to be profitable, has received strong reviews and excellent audience scores. Like yourself (and apparently Disney) I too am disappointed that a good film didn't do better, but there just isn't a reasonable definition by which it can be labelled a bomb/flop (at this stage).

Where I do agree is that Disney needs to learn from the mistakes made on this film. Mismanagement of production that resulted in the budget going from $150m to $250m have clearly taken their toll on the potential for major profit, and seem to have had a significant impact on mindshare - particularly in overseas territories.

Confirmation bias?  The BO has confirmed it.  Unless the legs are exceptional, this movie is a complete flop.  No way to explain it away.

And that $576.6M figure I gave is just if it stays 40.6% below RO.  That's already horrible in and of itself.  However, RO had very good legs.  Better than TLJ.  I highly doubt that figure will remain that "small."  This film is likely to not hit $500M.

Angelus said:
starcraft said:

I am sorry but I think you have some confirmation bias going on here. You started this thread anticipating a flop, and are now selectively interpreting information to give yourself that result.

Solo definitely disappointed relative to expectations in its opening weekend. But domestically it was still the the 4th biggest memorial weekend in a decade. Also, an eventual total of $550-600m is hard to call a bomb in any language.

Its almost certain to be profitable, has received strong reviews and excellent audience scores. Like yourself (and apparently Disney) I too am disappointed that a good film didn't do better, but there just isn't a reasonable definition by which it can be labelled a bomb/flop (at this stage).

Where I do agree is that Disney needs to learn from the mistakes made on this film. Mismanagement of production that resulted in the budget going from $150m to $250m have clearly taken their toll on the potential for major profit, and seem to have had a significant impact on mindshare - particularly in overseas territories.

Might be the 4th biggest, but it's also about context. Star Wars is far too big a franchise for that to be acceptable. Especially when the memorial day weekend hasn't had much in the way of particularly lucrative releases of late anyway, so it would have been a very low bar to clear for that #1 spot. In fact, it's my personal belief that's the reason they chose to release this movie at this time of year, because they didn't have faith it could do the kind of awesome numbers Star Wars usually hits, so they figured "ah hell, memorial day weekend, we can say we had the biggest release ever there. Nice headline." They won't be pleased that they couldn't even sniff that goalpost.

Oh, that's exactly what they were doing.  They knew it was going to open lower than any of their other SW films, so they were looking to cover up that fact with some positive headlines.  They figured it would at least do $140M for the 4 days, which would be enough to take the Memorial Day crown.  Unfortunately for them, their actions and behavior towards their fans, as well as the direction of the series, has really turned people off.  They couldn't even match POTC:AWE's 3-day gross with their 4-day gross.



 

Insidb on 28 May 2018
Azuren said:
Insidb said:

Congratulations on admitting that I'm correct and discrediting all of your own arguments.

You probably should have just lied and said that you saw it, because now everyone here knows you have no idea what happens in the actual film.

I actually saw the movie, and guess what...there's no forced sexual agenda, at all, pansexual or otherwise. The films explicitly state that Lando has literally not committed the only pansexual act one could allude to...

Please just go see the movie and make an informed judgment.

Nah, I don't lie. I know that as an SJW apologist, that always seems like the easier option to you, but I prefer to lay out facts.

 

And also, thanks for showing your complete lack of reading comprehension for everyone. I don't want to watch a forced ideology. The writer for Solo has already confirmed that forced ideology's presence in a tweet, and thus I won't watch it. The very presence of that backwards, regressive ideology is the reason I don't want to watch the movie. I don't care if Landon is pan or if it p lays a role in the movie, because I don't want to watch a movie filled to the brim with ideas I consider to be entirely disgusting? What about that is difficult to understand? Is it the part where I don't care for identity politics?

 

Because I don't care about your identity politics.

 

How can I spell this out for you more plainly than "I don't want to watch identity politics in movie form"? 

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