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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Probably a useless idea since there's no good or authoritative indicator in terms of console hardware sales trends, Amazon is the only remotely good point of data but that's starting to change as time goes since Nintendo products are getting over represented so the data becomes less valuable ...

Having access to specific data from the biggest retailers such as GameStop or Walmart in a related industry could help a lot with predictions but even then it might only be good enough to represent a single market ...

I'll find a way to deconstruct everybody's psychology ...

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Symbios63 said:
peachbuggy said:
Switch out of stock at Gamestop?

Nope, first sku is a Odyssey bundle which is ranked 102. This is odd indeed.

I find that very strange. I would have thought that, if in stock it would at least be in the top 100.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Good idea. It's worth to see how much this system's works. But I'll be blunt. I'll stick with Amazon like I do since I've been on this forum.

Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Meanwhile in Smash Bros ...

From what I can tell Best Buy, Walmart and Target are all fairly good indicators for how hardware is doing in the US. Amazon over represents Switch sales while Gamestop severely under represents Switch.

best buy has 2 lists it's wierd

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fatslob-:O said:
Probably a useless idea since there's no good or authoritative indicator in terms of console hardware sales trends, Amazon is the only remotely good point of data but that's starting to change as time goes since Nintendo products are getting over represented so the data becomes less valuable ...

Having access to specific data from the biggest retailers such as GameStop or Walmart in a related industry could help a lot with predictions but even then it might only be good enough to represent a single market ...

What we need is to know is how the market is splitted between each retailers, what is their actual weight on their respective market. The OP's idea is not bad, but we won't be able to have accurate predictions if we can't have a better idea pf how many units Amazon sells compared to Gamestop, just to name those two.

For now, just like you said, we can only see the trends moving on their specifics branches.



Symbios63 said:

February NPD came by and Amazon was not on point with predicting this one...

The idea of this thread is to use the best selling list of main US retailers to try and build a formula allowing us to predict the outcome of incoming NPD.

The basic idea is to allocate points to hardware depending on their ranking (100 for rank 1, 99 for rank 2 etc...) on the 5 main retailers online best selling list (Amazon, Best Buy, Gamestop, Walmart and Target).

I just did it so you get the idea...

 

- Amazon : 

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 - 299.00$ - In stock
2 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 - 299.00$ - In stock
3 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 - 299.99$ - In stock
4 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 68 - Out of Stock
5 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 69 - 399.00$ - In Stock
6 - XBox One S 500Gb - 81 - 244.99$ - In stock March 26
7 - Super Nes Classic - 83 - Third Party Sellers Only
8 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 92 - 497.95$ - In Stock

PS4 : 62 + 33 + 32 = 127 points   ;   XBO : 20 + 9 = 29 points   ;   NS : 76 + 79 =  155 points   ;   Snes C : 18 points

 

- Best Buy : 

1 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 13 - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 - 299.99$ - Get it March 22nd
3 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 17 - 499.99$ - Get it March 22nd
4 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 18 - 399.00$ - Get it March 22nd
5 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 - 299.00$ - Get it March 22nd
6 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 - 299.00$ - Get it March 22nd
7 - New 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 27 - 174.99$ - Get it March 22nd
8 - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 - Get it March 22nd

PS4 : 88 + 86 + 83 = 257 points   ;   XBO : 84 + 72 = 156 points   ;   NS : 82 + 75 =  157 points   ;   3DS : 74 points 


- Gamestop : 

1 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 5 - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 25 - 399.99$ - In Stock
3 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 33 - 449.99$ - Out of Stock
4 - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 53 - In Stock
5 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 75 - 299.99$ In Stock

PS4 : 96 + 76 + 68 + 26 = 266 points   ;   XBO : 48 points   


- Walmart :

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 - 299.00$ - In Stock
4 - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 34 - 79.96$ - In Stock
5 - New Nintendo 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 35 - 199.96$ - In Stock
6 - XBox One S 500Gb - 39 - 245.40$ - Third Party Seller
7 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 40 - 499.99$ - In Stock
8 - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 41 - 269.99$ - In Stock
9 - XBox One X 1 Tb Project Scorpio Edition - 42 - 608.90$ - Third Party Seller
10 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 43 - 299.99$ - In Stock
11 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 44 - 399.00$ - In Stock
12 - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 49 - 149.00$ - In Stock
13 - Super Nes Classic - 50 - Third Party Seller
14 - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 54 - 79.00$ - In Stock
15 - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 67 - 299.00$ - In Stock
16 - Super Nes Classic - 73 - Third Party Seller
17 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 86 - 
399.96$ - Preorder

PS4 : 72 + 60 + 58 + 57 + 15 = 262 points   ;   XBO : 62 + 61 + 59 + 34 = 216 points   ;   NS : 80 + 68 =  148 points   ;   Snes C : 51 + 28 = 79 points   ;   3DS : 67 + 66 + 52 + 47 = 232

 

Target : 

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3
2 - Super Nes Classic - 4
3 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8
4 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10
5 - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 23
6 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 30
7 - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 38
8 - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 63
9 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 69
10 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 76
11 - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 77
12 - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 82

PS4 : 91 + 32 + 25 = 148 points   ;   XBO : 78 + 71 + 63 = 212 points   ;   NS : 98 + 93 =  191 points   ;   Snes C : 97 points   ;   3DS : 38 + 24 + 19 = 81 points


Overall : 

PS4 : 1060 points
XBO : 661 points
NS : 651 points
3DS : 387 points
Snes C : 194 points


What we get is a confortable first spot for PS4 with Switch and XBO fighting for second place.

However, using this raw data is probably not much more accurate than using Amazon ranking alone (which has shown to not be that bad most of the time mind you).

The idea is to keep an eye on those data untill the end of march and use the March NPD result to twist the formula if needed. What I mean by that is maybe some retailers are more important than others or some of them are "biased" toward one system or the other or maybe the point system has to be twisted (like more points for top 20 ranked items) etc...

Maybe there are twists that can be made right now (like maybe it is known (not by me) that amazon usually sells twice as many hardware than target or something along those lines, or maybe there is another important retailer that can be used...).

The aim is to become able to accurately predict NPD ranking and maybe (very unlikely) getting an idea on relative sale volumes.

This is all for the fun of trying to build something but we (or I if nobody cares lol) will fail a lot and may never get anything worthwhile... (Main thing is that online sells will never accurately depict the whole sale picture...)

So, for those who think this might be fun, I would like to hear your suggestions.

 

do you have a link to that best buy list?



well this thread is dead. thought it would interesting.

Very interesting, keep up the good work!

We will see in the future how much weight every shop should have to the total points to balance the prediction

quickrick said: 

ps4 will beat switch by around 100k March npd or slightly less.

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454

List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

quickrick said:
well this thread is dead. thought it would interesting.

It's just that the OP is away for a week



quickrick said: 

ps4 will beat switch by around 100k March npd or slightly less.

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454

List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing